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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

No time but the output in general looks very good to me. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Hmmm interesting 12z ECm.

So the LP heads into the Atlantic, so that will probably cutoff the NW flow soon.

BUT on the up side, that is decent ridging behind it and may help to give that extra push to sink SE enough to re-introduce colder air again for the south.

North may keep the cold this run.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

So looking at all output today I'd be putting the reliable time frame up too 120 hrs imo.

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
Just now, booferking said:

ECM = snowy from Saturday Evening to Wednesday so far.❄️

For what areas of the country?

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, swfc said:

So looking at all output today I'd be putting the reliable time frame up too 120 hrs imo.

Yep, that's where the differences in how they are handling the PV lobe start!

Much better Arctic pattern and the PV looks in a much better position and stronger on this 12z run, which may make the Atlantic low less of a problem.

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

I feel like we should have a thread based upon the latest outputs as they come out. Am I the only forum member that's anxiously waiting to see the latest ECM charts as they are posted in here but have to trawl through posts where people are still harping on about the 12z UKMO differences from the GFS

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Nice and bitter next week from the ECM, bring on the precipitation...

 

ECM0-168.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Major possibilities incoming ECM T192:

image.thumb.jpg.b14f04ed8cfa116c5dad8909cdfc14dd.jpg

Obvious note of caution that the main models differ considerably around the T120 mark!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM0-144.GIF?23-0

Now this is more like it ECM. Southerly tracking jet, no time for mild sectors to bed in before the next NWly. The snow is really going to pile up in the north on this run. 

ECM really piles it up further south too think it’s lost the plot crazy amounts along a narrow corridor..

D592597E-225A-4C43-A185-A85CC4ADEDFC.thumb.png.83ee46e0ddeb6f6e919b68afb3f71907.png

Edited by Daniel*
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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Personally I think we need a good old fashioned greenie high to force the arctic air south first, an easterly due to a southerly tracking low might not deliver 'very cold conditions....money rather warm uppers heading into eastern Europe.

ECMOPEU12_168_2-1.png

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

12z ECM goes the way the 12z GFS does at 192hrs as the upper low is a little too strong and LP SW winds is rotated around. We do probably make the most of the set-up before that though and technically that probably does count as a cold spell before 192hrs.

Cold air will never be far away from Scotland, so could easily see it being drawn back down, but probably not beyond N.England IMO.

Also...note the 12z ECM and the 12z UKMO are IDENTICAL with the placement of the PV lobe off Canada, that's why I was such the UKMO would also not have a cold spell later on like some of the earlier runs did.

Edited by kold weather
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Ok..

So let us /cut/ @144 hrs and look for ens guidence..for the ecm 12z out..

Its sensible.....

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Nice and bitter next week from the ECM, bring on the precipitation...

 

ECM0-168.gif

no way, not looking at 192 chart, YUK

ECM1-192.GIF?23-0

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

12z ECM goes the way the 12z GFS does at 192hrs as the upper low is a little too strong and LP SW winds is rotated around. We do probably make the most of the set-up before that though and technically that probably does count as a cold spell before 192hrs.

Also...note the 12z ECM and the 12z UKMO are IDENTICAL with the placement of the PV lobe off Canada, that's why I was such the UKMO would also not have a cold spell later on...

A post that makes both good guide and sense....

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

ensembles GEM 12z

gensnh-4-1-216.thumb.png.c6c395b56d5f09afde9ba1c6b273a895.pnggensnh-4-1-384.thumb.png.d5ad26fe63dddcfbc00ef791faaf02a5.pnggensnh-6-1-216.thumb.png.e59cefa5e35c157c13d56e00b356f396.pnggensnh-6-1-312.thumb.png.1bde25f451fad9c519695d24962fa002.pnggensnh-11-1-384.thumb.png.fe293397d3b0adfa5105283ba774bc19.pnggens-15-1-312.thumb.png.44b9501a34de6f8e51d6f221aea06c1b.png     

gens-15-1-324.thumb.png.2e19ae500a27f3635088341943214091.pnggens-15-1-384.thumb.png.c2df69deac1cd153d9f060054dfbae3f.pnggensnh-18-1-240.thumb.png.1870c249286cda8db0f2193f6b6acd5f.pnggensnh-18-1-300.thumb.png.54b07e6afc1414ae2fe4938ddb6177c1.pnggensnh-18-1-348.thumb.png.b23c2f1ee4839f39466a8bad1ad653b1.png     

ensemble NAEFS 12z 

180h naefsnh-0-0-180.thumb.png.1d64e7241ec0128971090764d4fd9c8b.png  300h naefsnh-0-0-300.thumb.png.089dd177cd3601480682f6c0463b5fa4.png  end of the run naefsnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.6265907bff4be2ec384730f058dbc9e8.png

perhaps a twist on the well known "get the cold in and the snow will follow" how about "get the blocking in place and the cold and snow will follow" 

 

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
10 minutes ago, swfc said:

So looking at all output today I'd be putting the reliable time frame up too 120 hrs imo.

I’d say it’s more like 72 hrs atm, to much chopping and changing from 96 hours

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Matty M said:

Disappointing 192hr chart from the EC.

It's not all lose yet. That mild pulse at 192hr had barely any support in previous ENS

It did have decent support from the ensembles on  the clusters though, it was pretty close to 50-50 in terms of what it did with that upper low. I fear tonight that may drop down to 20-30% but we will see, especially with the UKMO+GFS jumping onboard with it.

Starting to feel like De Ja Vu isn't it everyone! Even the posters in here are like de ja vu!

PS - add GEM as well to that list, BAD 12z GEM tonight, with WSW from 168hrs all the way through to about 228hrs.

Edited by kold weather
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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
11 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I feel like we should have a thread based upon the latest outputs as they come out. Am I the only forum member that's anxiously waiting to see the latest ECM charts as they are posted in here but have to trawl through posts where people are still harping on about the 12z UKMO differences from the GFS

Hmmmm, I think that might be called ‘model.....output.....ummmmmm discussion’

 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

The EC at 216 hours be it fi looks totally out of sorts imo.not even close to this mornings run and sits on its own for me

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted
17 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM = snowy from Saturday Evening to next Wednesday so far.❄️

UK wide?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Another possible shortwave spoiler low!

It is clear that this will spoil the possibility of extended cold and to put it simply, that blown up low needs to be severely moderated in upcoming runs.

The good news is that at D8 + on the ECM of late it has thrown up great variety, though it is typical that all four models now agree on the spoiler low rather than the trigger low, you couldn't make it up!

We shall see...

 

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