Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, booferking said:

EC mean looked to straddle along the op the whole way up North.

After viewing the mean coming out that suprises me to be honest...

It seemed the mean was colder n the mid range but hey ho..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a whacking great high across the Pole on EC- and a big siberian high and yet the canadian PV segment dominates our part of the NH..

image.thumb.png.b85fae72a659785cfe9e4f3891ff15eb.png

  • Like 1
  • Sad 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

There is a whacking great high across the Pole on EC- and a big siberian high and yet the canadian PV segment dominates our part of the NH..

image.thumb.png.b85fae72a659785cfe9e4f3891ff15eb.png

We just can’t seem to shift it....as we get closer in time, something that looks nice out at day 9/10 slowly evaporated as the models get a better grip on the energy spilling out. Looks to be much the same happening again, for what seems the umpteenth time this winter!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

It is cold and some have had a little snow which in many years people would have been grateful for.

It is just that this year there has been so much that has been pointing towards a properly cold and snowy spell late January into February with Northern blocking galore that what is on offer at the moment seems like scraps.

Hopefully things will look more promising again later today the 0z runs usually leave us grumpy to be fair.....

Think the issue is the length of the reversal 3 weeks? from the onset.Split was 1st Jan

The SSW in January 2013 took a good while to propagate as this one is.

Now the winds have returned to westerlies up in the strat  it should start pushing the Easterlies below down into the troposphere.

Every SSW is different and I don't think even the MET could predict propagation accurately.

Hang in there as HLB will appear and trust me if it occurs at all in Feb it will be bitterly cold.Laters.

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've moved a whole set of posts into the winter thread, as that's where they belong.

As has been said many times already, some banter in here is ok but we need to keep a theme of the models running through it. So please, use other threads for entirely different topics (like snow reports, met office forecasts and moans about the winter weather etc)

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it me or is the jet posing a bit of a risk to forthcoming cold potential? It seems to have nudged a bit further east on the last few runs - could either mean we are on the 'dividing line' and get lucky with sliding lows or, as has happened recently, it ends up pushing all the fun further east again.... too close for my liking - so keeping my expectations low for now - until nearer the time at least ! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean looks good again..

OP likely out of kilter, again.

I don’t think so NWS, and the way this winter has gone the mean has been out of kilter?.  Caught up with last night’s euphoria.......I warned to ignore the super cold easterly runs at this stage....unfortunately 00z brought all down with a big bump...again....slightly underwhelming actually but hopefully wrong.....but I know where my money would go.

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 3
  • Haha 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I don’t think so NWS, and the way this winter has gone the mean has been out of kilter?.  Caught up with last night’s euphoria.......I warned to ignore the super cold easterly runs at this stage....unfortunately 00z brought all down with a big bump...again....slightly underwhelming actually but hopefully wrong.....but I know where my money would.

 

BFTP

Looks fine to me plenty of snow chances well below norm likely looking at the most wintry prolonged period of the winter from Saturday onwards whats not to like could be sitting in mild southwesterlies.🤷‍♂️

Edited by booferking
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Broadscale, the op is well within the EPS envelope.  

Days 7 to 10 suggest a continuation of the NW-SE jet axis with the mean trough eventually sinking south into Europe - possibly taking the western route at this stage (which may throw up some mild uppers into the south as per the Operational).

Ext EPS no real change - Euro trough with northern heights with the omnipresent low pressure to the south of Greenland much diminished - no real HLB at the stage but with Euro troughing and wedges of high pressure to the north-west an easterly solution will surely show up in *some* of the extended EPS.

PS - would love to know what the EC control is showing - it's very cold.

Edited by mulzy
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Liking the Icon today

anim_lci2.gif

Liking the GEM also

anim_hwk8.gif

It's unusual to see a lobe of energy moving under the Atlantic high keeping the draining lobes on a NW/SE trajectory

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Liking the Icon today

anim_lci2.gif

Could be the first signs

got to start somewhere 

  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well this morning 00z abit of a letdown it has to be said.

Still leaves options open but we have reverted back again to the NW-SE jet which is suggestive of marginal snow events. Some would do well, some would leave this winter with 0cms in such a pattern (me! Think I missed the chance yesterday), but hard to say how it would fall just yet and may end being a messy situation

Models should be treated carefully, lots of volatility still, both good and bad.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON has been pretty good recently so it may have this nailed. Need as much of that low as possible to end up over Spain to keep the Azores high as west as possible. Then we will have either a decent northerly or easterly.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Looks fine to me plenty of snow chances well below norm likely looking at the most wintry prolonged period of the winter from Saturday onwards whats not to like could be sitting in mild southwesterlies.🤷‍♂️

Not difficult to be most wintry period, but point taken.  But within 7 day timescale as beyond is well FI, it’s less cold and taken slight step back imo compared to yesterday’s runs as the trough doesn’t dig south enough.   (totally ignoring the 18z as that was so outlandish)

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Not difficult to be most wintry period, but point taken.  But within 7 day timescale as beyond is well FI, it’s less cold and taken slight step back imo compared to yesterday’s runs as the trough doesn’t dig south enough.   (totally ignoring the 18z as that was so outlandish)

 

BFTP

Is it less cold in the 7 day period? Looks about the same to me, and the overall pattern for beyond 7 days looks the same. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think we are in for a decent cold period. Might not be as good as last year, that would take some beating! But something maybe more akin to February 2009, that would be very good. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z looks particularly good (wintry)for scotland, even by day 10.👍❄️:cold-emoji:

240_thickuk.png  hi frosty it is not unusual for Scotland in early winter to have snow and cold weather as most people from Midlands south don’t get that 

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM ENS look very cold to me!!

The control run goes into the Freezer !!

@bluearmy

Whats the flow all Easterly?

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To be honest, don't recall December (other than 2010 in more recent years) and January generally don't deliver much in the way of potent, severe cold. Can understand, though, the disappointment and fatigue on here; however, there is still February and March (of which, in March last year, the far south coast experienced two cold spells with snow and ice days on two occasions; the latter of which was mid-march).

Still all to play for. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 I meant to say Scotland always get wintry weather in any winter anyway last night the models were looking good this morning they are not too bad but we always chasing day 10 chance of it being the story of winter 20 1819 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM ENS look very cold to me!!

The control run goes into the Freezer !!

@bluearmy

Whats the flow all Easterly?

They are still ok, but they are definitely a large step back from the great 12z ensembles of yesterday, and you all know where the slippery slide leads to, we've already seen it just last week...

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 I meant to say Scotland always get wintry weather in any winter anyway last night the models were looking good this morning they are not too bad but we always chasing day 10 chance of it being the story of winter 20 1819 

You mean the tops of the hills and the mountains in Scotland are more likely to get wintry weather because I think you will find most places in Scotland don't always get wintry weather...down south got more snow last night than we did!

I think the models are looking good, what's the chances of us getting exactly the same as the beast from the east 18 anyway..? A bit of leeway needed 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 I meant to say Scotland always get wintry weather in any winter

How do you know this? The last decent winter up here was 2010, same as down south. Last year was not bad in terms of snowfall but other than that it has been poor up here in recent years. Scotland doesn’t always get snowy cold winters, even the ski resorts sometimes struggle to get a decent amount of snow.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

To be honest, don't recall December (other than 2010 in more recent years) and January generally don't deliver much in the way of potent, severe cold. Can understand, though, the disappointment and fatigue on here; however, there is still February and March (of which, in March last year, the far south coast experienced two cold spells with snow and ice days on two occasions; the latter of which was mid-march).

Still all to play for. 

True, but before last winter, we had 4 mild, almost snowless winters between 2013/14 and 2016/17. 

Before that we had 4/5 colder, snowier winters that included January 2013, December 2010 and Jan 2010. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×