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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The ECM 120 is 'interesting' 😉

75163FFE-B85E-40D0-83EB-9719B4483F22.thumb.png.c2165452061e01c8c5ad2a08f9b1f35f.png

Shame about the rest of the run.

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1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hard to see how the SSW affected our weather in any way whatsoever.

Yet..

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Who expected that at t216 following the t192 output? Not me for sure 😩😩

8ACE819F-85AC-46BD-8EF0-47DA492555DA.png

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Next run please shocker at day 9 😞

D9334A59-2743-43E4-BA92-6DB98423AFFB.png

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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hard to see how the SSW affected our weather in any way whatsoever. It was a fail imo. 

giphy.gif

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You know the weather gods are laughing at us when thev -20hpa over the Northern hemisphere resembles the UK

Screenshot_20190121-185046.png

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That is a bit of a grim ECM on the face of it at 216hrs, in terms of where the atlantic low is going. I really don't want to see any low in that position its on at 216hrs, any cold is going to get washed away from Europe and its going to need a great fetch to being it back...and judging by this winter...

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Still no sign of proper HLB on the latest ecm.The EC46 has been a total failure so far this winter,as have the other seasonals too.

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4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hard to see how the SSW affected our weather in any way whatsoever. It was a fail imo. Cold zonal looks to see out January with snow mostly reserved for Northern parts. As for February who knows probably a continued mix of cold and mild. I actually told family and friends a major cold spell was coming end of January. Will learn for future winters lol

Wait till the post solar minimum winters to deliver IMO. This winter would’ve been a bonus anyway!

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I really can’t see the excitement in the ECM 12z run.  It’s fairly standard PM stuff to be honest.

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If the SSW hasn’t affected our weather, why are we see a prolonged spell of below average temperatures and systems moving north west to south east instead of the usual west to east?

Just because we’re not seeing a big freeze, doesn’t mean there has been no effect.

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I really can’t see the excitement in the ECM 12z run.  It’s fairly standard PM stuff to be honest.

I haven't seen any excitement tbh.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10 should be good ..

🙂

Low pressure over the UK with the real cold air shifted away... the rivers need some rain anyway

ECM1-240.thumb.GIF.a236f8eea26da9aba3143b5ac83acca4.GIFECM0-240.thumb.GIF.768daeb200541aeb91857f910e5e09b0.GIF

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10 should be good ..

🙂

Definitely not 💩💩💩💩💩

DA84F77C-F32F-4521-8736-1DA2E9FE3BD4.png

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7 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yet..

True, there is still plenty of time, though odds are looking more likely that the pieces may not quite line up the way we need them to for us to benefit.

Anyway 12z ECM forms a little polar vortex lobe to our NNE which in its place completely screws over the NW pattern we had been developing.

Even IF northern blocking did develop, the 12z ECM would still be a poor run from 240hrs onwards as there would be no cold to tap into due to the placement of the Atlantic lows...that's just about as bad as it gets as northern blocking would just lock in a broadly average temperature distribution.

PS, NW dominated weather isn't that uncommon, you can get those sorts of PM set-ups even in the most zonal of winters with a raging +ve AO. The ECm in particular id basic about as standard as you can get for the UK after 144hrs.

Edited by kold weather
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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I really can’t see the excitement in the ECM 12z run.  It’s fairly standard PM stuff to be honest.

Looks great from my viiew point

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Oh dear oh dear oh dear the runs are getting worse as the days go on . Bet my house the extended eps are even worse tonight . It’s going one way the wrong way . 

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ECM "you expecting a northerly?"

Nah why don't you have some lovely mild lush instead 😂😂😂😂

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Looks great from my viiew point

Try living down here, the 12z ECM is VERY boring run! For you guys up in the NW its certainly good, though even then the 12z ECM really isn't *that* great, its 24hrs of snow showers followed by heavy rain, followed by 24hrs of wintry showers, followed by rain, etc...

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Looks great from my viiew point

You live up a mountain tho dont ya 😂

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Low pressure over the UK with the real cold air shifted away... the rivers need some rain anyway

ECM1-240.thumb.GIF.a236f8eea26da9aba3143b5ac83acca4.GIFECM0-240.thumb.GIF.768daeb200541aeb91857f910e5e09b0.GIF

They do indeed need some rain - it's such a shame the ECM at that range has not come off all Winter!

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