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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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 I was looking at the GFFS đŸ„¶charts this morning And wondered why more often than not when cold and the cold is predicted it doesn't materialise where as when all Westerlies on the charts more often than not they do verify so I wonder where the signal is come from for cold and why it then just flips within one run to change and take out the snow and wondered why more often than not when cold and the cold is predicted it doesn't materialise where as when mild southerly or westerly is on the charts more often than not they do verify so I wonder where the signals come from for cold and why it then just flips within one run to change and take out the snowMagedan 

 

 Apologies for typos the dictaphone on my iPhone isn't the best . 

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4 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Excellent summary of how most of us are probably feeling on here, given that snowpocalypse is now off the table for January (except for all our friends in Scotland perhaps)!  Time hasn't run out yet but we sure need to see something dramatic happening in the next four weeks for it to be memorable given that Spring will then be just around the corner.  Just to show that this is possible, though, and to keep everyone's hopes alive, I have decided to risk a hail of criticism from the purists by posting the following CFS charts:

image.thumb.png.dc87ba73dda85b40cba8e47c7af83292.png  image.thumb.png.c895b9d9e45aa1ffbab5148a940ab756.png

Yes, I know it's 900 hours away (27th February) and yes, I know they'll be gone tomorrow, but its worth looking at them because it shows a BFTE2019 is still possible, among the many millions of other possible ways the UK weather could go in the next 30 days.  Who knows, it might come earlier.  Or it might not happen at all....  All I know is that I will be here every day, like a mug, waiting for the models to show these conditions in the short term.  But then I always check my lottery numbers too, and that never works. 

better time of year for a beast, Jan is too early really for E'lys

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March seems to be the best time for Easterlies in recent years that give you decent snowfalls and bitter temperatures

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

March seems to be the best time for Easterlies in recent years that give you decent snowfalls and bitter temperatures

March is always more likely to have Scandinavian Heights than mid-winter. Guessing because the PV begins to break down

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While the band of ppn crossing the country later today will generally be rain for low lying areas the showers packing after it passes through will likely turn turn increasingly snow.

Obviously the usual favoured spots with any elevation could do quite well but these showers should penetrate well in land and quite far South.

Hopefully many of us wills see out first snowflakes of the Winter Tue/wed.

Here are Euro 4 latest snow accumulation charts for midnight Wed.

 

euro4.gif

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Its like pulling teeth this winter  so much promise  even i am stating to wain.   Anyway  some may see some snow over the next 48 hours  (pron midlands north)  but we really do seem to be scrapping the barrel 

Edited by weirpig
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17 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

We dare to dream! Let's see how all the models perform throughout the course of the day. 

I'm just enjoying the ride, yeah maybe looking at potential deep freezes 10+ days away is frustrating, but I'm convinced it'll happen at some point 

Good luck with that 

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People moods are like the models rollercoaster. Got whole of feb yet. Always hope

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Gfs looks cold again later in to weekend and ecm going cold again later in to weekend models don’t look that bad to me .

6EC60CB7-88FE-4482-80AE-1D1FF505F8D8.png

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If only those GFS snow charts were accurate   Alas  NO     half the country would be under snow.

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11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

When Summer arrives I will be the one raging as all the folk down South are on the beaches sunbathing in 30 degrees heat while I have light drizzle and 15 degrees! 😂

1D5FEEAC-D5EF-4569-9916-CEDA0CDE2EAA.jpeg

Wow!  That IS a great view!  I would swap a few 30C days every year in a city to have that view every day!

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Meanwhile GFS 00z ensmebles keep things pretty mobile with only transient ridges stopping the onslaught so the MetO forecast looks about right, alternating between cold with wintry showers and less cold with bands of rain/sleet/snow as the flow alternates from N back to W with the ridge/trough pattern.

This pattern could be colder or elss cold depending on exactly how the troughs and ridges align with all snow events from frontal systems possible but also all rain events possible and everything in between,

However as we progress toward the turn of the month and into Feb the colder air should become more long lasting with the potential for some more robust blocking 

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

However as we progress toward the turn of the month and into Feb the colder air should become more long lasting with the potential for some more robust blocking 

NOW that's what we like to hear!

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10 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Gfs looks cold again later in to weekend and ecm going cold again later in to weekend models don’t look that bad to me .

6EC60CB7-88FE-4482-80AE-1D1FF505F8D8.png

But are they right i what they show granted they are never to be trusted much beyond two days but let's face it its been promise tease promise tease the more ssw mjo blah blah in the mix the more Confused. Com

Edited by snowfish1
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26 minutes ago, offerman said:

 I was looking at the GFFS đŸ„¶charts this morning And wondered why more often than not when cold and the cold is predicted it doesn't materialise where as when all Westerlies on the charts more often than not they do verify so I wonder where the signal is come from for cold and why it then just flips within one run to change and take out the snow and wondered why more often than not when cold and the cold is predicted it doesn't materialise where as when mild southerly or westerly is on the charts more often than not they do verify so I wonder where the signals come from for cold and why it then just flips within one run to change and take out the snowMagedan 

 

 Apologies for typos the dictaphone on my iPhone isn't the best . 

That’s the big question,why are models so poor in handling easterly outbreaks in the winter still.All the increase in computing power and still very poor as the last week proves beyond doubt

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25 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I think this will be the story for the foreseeable - North of the Midlands at risk of snowfall.

I can see why there is frustration in here though - if I lived in the South I would be raging! (Especially after the failed Easterly) 

I have had a couple of dustings here on low ground but it does help when my house faces onto hills/mountains - if I can’t have snowfall on the ground at least there is still a chance of a lovely view in the distance! (Current view below)

When Summer arrives I will be the one raging as all the folk down South are on the beaches sunbathing in 30 degrees heat while I have light drizzle and 15 degrees! 😂

1D5FEEAC-D5EF-4569-9916-CEDA0CDE2EAA.jpeg

You’ll still get all the decent supercell storms up there in the midlands and we’ll all be hot and bothered with a hosepipe ban - where’s the justice?

😆

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Has everyone forgotten last year it was very late winter and we saw some great last minute snow - right down into the south?

As I recall it was a pretty snowless Dec/Jan/Feb up until that point then it all went nuts.

Then too we had the SSW in play - I see differences but I also see similarities.

Snow is fickle and we don’t live on an arctic island but don’t hang everything on expecting a whiteout blizzard nationwide (which would be nice) or you’ll be waiting until 2121 (if the long-range space background signals I’ve seen are correct... 😉)

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After the cold front sinks south overnight, maybe back edge snow to the south with altitude, a small feature, kink with accompanying low, gives another period of possible snow for the south later in the day:

36-779UK.thumb.gif.430a96af2a6f84da9de974c1c82bbd69.gif36-515UK.thumb.gif.25d7385e48e0ebd33bd0cf4a37a9ae16.gif36-526UK.thumb.gif.894d8602cec3a971bd5c0b2b26e06491.gif

Again higher ground favourable. To note for rush hour tomorrow evening!

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18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That’s the big question,why are models so poor in handling easterly outbreaks in the winter still.

Because, despite the vast amount of resources put into computing, they still cannot handle short wave energy being ejected from the permanent NE Canada vortex. 

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gfs 6 z looks poor at 132 hrs compared to the oz ridging wise ete  .like pulling hens teeth atm 😏

Edited by swfc
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38 minutes ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

i think Catacol wrote a detailed response to these "arguments" last night - but I guess it's like shouting into an echo chamber!

Catacol correctly asked, why are these people even in this thread? and they will never give you an honest answer. It really says it all when someone comes on a "hunt for cold thread" and says "roll on spring". 

Fact - the background signals have been/are good regardless of the failed outcomes and going forward it has/will ultimately give us more info how to interpret them. And if it wasn't for those signals we wouldn't have had the thrilling model rollercoaster that this winter is providing. Yep we've had no snow but it's been blooming interesting all the same. Why do people have a problem with that?

Everything was pointing to a very cold spell of weather and with the charts that were appearing last week there was no reason to suspect anything else. Even the moderators and senior weather people on here were getting giddy and making boom posts. It was no coincidence that certain people like who Catacol was replying to were nowhere to be seen back end of last week because there was no argument for the mild rampers and anyone who has come out since and said that severe cold was always gonna be a bust is a out and out liar - it looked nailed on but the second that easterly looked to have failed, surprise surprise up pops the usual "told you so" people. I suppose at least they are consistant lol.

We're back to chasing day 10, so what? it's a hobby, it's annoying and frustrating but we love it all the same. It hasn't happened yet, it might not this winter but we also might get a few nice surprises along the way so regardless of what anyone says, backgrounds are and will always be key to this game.

As soon as those boom charts start appearing again people will jump all over them and good on them that's what i say and if those charts don't appear and we're left clutching at straws for the rest of winter then good on that too, damn site better than just coming on here just to rubbish everything.

Cheers

 

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3 minutes ago, swfc said:

gfs 6 z looks poor at 132 hrs compared to the oz.like pulling hens teeth atm 😏

Same set up? just delayed by 12 hours 

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1032 DD  on Wednesday, mother nature getting her bikini on 🙄

560065825_doublehigh.thumb.PNG.0611165655c889049efc432e9e2476d6.PNG

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