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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

GFS 6z take on Tuesdays snow, Making a bit more out of it for the South.

7135595_viewimage(63).thumb.png.bf863d7ddfa306b42b19de17aa7e7eeb.png285737455_viewimage(64).thumb.png.1e17867466051b973058eeaa211f54f6.png1899493786_viewimage(65).thumb.png.965b050fd569e473a489546c2a100646.png

I wouldn't take to much notice of them atm NWS 😊

In my experience uppers need to be -8/-9 from the NW PM- EC is around -7 so borderline for sure- but i am using only the 850s as a guide, altitude will be the buzzword come tues, imho..

🙂

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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

For a greater chance of snow, the front needs to slow down, it's whizzing through far too fast not allowing for the warmer uppers to be mixed out.

At the moment, very little lying snow from that (except in favoured upland parts).

Cheers mulzy..

FWIW and this relates to my locale, although you could probably say the same broadly speaking for a swathe of NW Britain, i have hills around me at 350m about 2 miles away.. they should get a good dumping !!

🙂

Edited by northwestsnow
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33 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Copied from the other thread

No sign of any change in the anomaly charts=cold will remain, how cold is for the synoptic models at much shorter time scales.

The EC and GFS remain more bullish than NOAA but it also shows no sign of any milder interludes in the overall upper air pattern through the next two weeks.

All 3 shows fairly cold contour heights.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

My worry is that it will be fairly cold, but not cold enough, or very cold and dry. Oh well, still got lots of time on our side for the white stuff, I noticed that the trop reversal is not likely to get its act together until we go into February, along with more northern blocking, this could well be the reason for so much uncertainly and mid term chopping and changing in the models right now as they try to steer a course that quite frankly remains outside of their zonal comfort zone.

Edited by snowray

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In my experience uppers need to be -8/-9 from the NW PM- EC is around -7 so borderline for sure- but i am using only the 850s as a guide, altitude will be the buzzword come tues, imho..

🙂

I saw snow on Friday in a PM airmass with uppers at -2. I’m 146 m above sea level.

Air thickness, dew points and air temperatures all look good. Confident that showers will be of snow, particularly if they continue after dark.

Think snow from the front is unlikely away from hills. The cold air from the north west doesn’t undercut it quickly enough.

Edited by MattStoke
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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I saw snow on Friday in a PM airmass with uppers at -2. I’m 146 m above sea level.

Air thickness, dew points and air temperatures all look good. Confident that showers will be of snow, particularly if they continue after dark.

Hope your right matt 🙂

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In my experience uppers need to be -8/-9 from the NW PM- EC is around -7 so borderline for sure- but i am using only the 850s as a guide, altitude will be the buzzword come tues, imho..

🙂

Yes agree, Here are the 850's certainly altitude makes all the difference. Early days yet for tiny changes but with a -7 wind chill we shall see..450350049_viewimage(66).thumb.png.44b8202a1dfb016beb76698e04bfc348.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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I'm pondering about the MJO at the moment-

Does anyone have the latest plots? Suspect we might be getting a bit of assistance looking at the 00z runs broadly..

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UKMO 48 FAX

Note the 528 behind the front, should be OK for snow showers after the rain clears through, but who knows, I will be radar watching the front anyway as sometimes the gods do smile upon us.

 

ukmo.gif

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In my experience uppers need to be -8/-9 from the NW PM- EC is around -7 so borderline for sure- but i am using only the 850s as a guide, altitude will be the buzzword come tues, imho..

🙂

Here are the dew points for 6am so you can see why there is a smidgen of a chance further south.

dew.JPG

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In my experience uppers need to be -8/-9 from the NW PM- EC is around -7 so borderline for sure- but i am using only the 850s as a guide, altitude will be the buzzword come tues, imho..

🙂

I tend to agree, but with the caveat that any heavy showers will drag the snow line down the surface.

I suspect there will be plenty of snow reports, but not so much accumulating away from the hills.

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I dont think theres any issue with snow whatsoever from tuesday morning till thursday!!850 temps widely -7 and then dew points well in the negatives!!

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12 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

 

Actually...... the day after tomorrow! 🤣

If only...

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Air thickness around 522

Dew points around or just below 0, and falling away Tuesday afternoon.

Air temperatures around 2’C.

Showers will be snow, even to quite low levels, and should stick, particularly if they continue after dark. Seen it so many times before, and I’m far from living on a hill (146 m).

 

Edited by MattStoke
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46 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Would normally not put a one liner on without charts - however given the paywall status of the EC Ens and clusters, all I can say is think - weeklies. Today will be a good day 🙂

The roller coaster is firmly back on the tracks and heading for the winter theme park.

? Hm. Ensembles, Clusters, Anomalies have been in agreement for cold spells on many occasions, but the operational runs just back off or show some sort of tease. Lots of promise this winter in the background signals, even a SSW but nothing yet to write home about.

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Annoying that I can`t see the 6am wet bulb but 9am Tues, 100m.

 

wet.JPG

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Air thickness around 522

Dew points around or just below 0, and falling away Tuesday afternoon.

Air temperatures around 2’C.

Showers will be snow, even to quite low levels, and should stick particularly if they continue after dark. Seen it so many times before and I’m far from living on a hill (146 m).

 

I used to live in Stoke and I saw settling snow on many such occasions there. You don't have anything to worry about as you are far inland and with some elevation.

However, areas close to the Irish sea will be not cold enough for settling snow.

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2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Annoying that I can`t see the 6am wet bulb but 9am Tues, 100m.

 

wet.JPG

Absolutely perfect!!!

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ECM and GFS both continue to show the evolution to embedded deeper cold courtesy of azores high ridging north to Greenland joining hands with arctic heights - caused by a trigger low slipping NW-SE through the UK - around the 28th/29th, which is beyond the reliable, but not that far away - so with this timeframes in mind, it will be about Wednesday when this change appears within the reliable - lets say Thursday/Friday to allow for further time-lag, can people wait another 4 days.. not sure, but the trend is there, and will continue in future runs.

Early February could be a very cold period indeed..

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Air thickness around 522

Dew points around or just below 0, and falling away Tuesday afternoon.

Air temperatures around 2’C.

Showers will be snow, even to quite low levels, and should stick particularly if they continue after dark. Seen it so many times before and I’m far from living on a hill (146 m).

 

I think my main problems is the gfs and he always is too cold in these airflows, as a rule I nearly always add 1c to everything if it says from a  Westerly airflow of any kind.

Even so, I said nice one have too many problems seeing snow falling from the showers, I'm just a little more sceptical of it accumulating to any great extent away from favoured higher ground.

Edited by kold weather
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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I think my main problems is the gfs and he always is too cold in these airflows, as a rule I nearly always had one cell cyst everything if it says from a  Westerly airflow of any kind.

Even so, I said nice one have too many problems seeing snow falling from the showers, I'm just a little more sceptical of it accumulating to any great extent away from favoured higher ground.

Should settle if the showers continue after dark. Maybe earlier if the showers are heavy enough.

Edited by MattStoke

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Eh? What are you referring too? I’ve seen none of that.

How do u ignore someone on here there's a button isn't there 

Edited by snowfish1

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Absolutely perfect!!!

Yet another straw clutching affair, I`m running out of them but would like to see the 6am, have a feeling it would be 200/400 down south.

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Looks like I won't be getting much out of Tuesdays front. GFS P shows less than 1mm of total precipitation and GFS normal shows 3mm. 

Hopefully will see a few snowflakes floating about, BBC weather says light rain showers and 4C though

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5 minutes ago, karyo said:

I used to live in Stoke and I saw settling snow on many such occasions there. You don't have anything to worry about as you are far inland and with some elevation.

However, areas close to the Irish sea will be not cold enough for settling snow.

Maybe not close to sea level but you don’t need to live on a hill to have a little elevation. I wouldn’t say Stoke is particularly high up.

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