Cold hunt - models and chat

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Think you could be on to something there,

Like the GFS(p) has corrected it further south slightly

Precipitation slightly further north.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its not just GFS in isolation though Matt- GEFS and EC meanss are trending away from cold..

I didn't base my post on one GFS op-

We'll see, hopefully we will begin to see something more appealing in the coming days..

 

I understand where your coming from northwest snow, and to be honest the models ain't exactly nailed anything down this winter, but I still feel the eps (etc) are struggling big time with this ever so slow ssw impact, but yehh, here's hoping, wasn't having a pop at you in anyway, as I value your input 

[Updated_Weather]

Seems GFS(p) is stuck? Anyone else?

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Updated_Weather

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Seems GFS(p) is stuck? Anyone else?

It always sticks at certain timeframes ....T96 being one, T78 another  ...... might have to wait as long as ten minutes for it to get going again 

Edited January 27, 2019 by bluearmy

[Mucka]

Euro4 latest on Tuesday potential snow

[Mark_p]

It looks like there are a lot of opportunities for snow this week or...I've read these forums for a long time but have only been a member for 2 years (and made a handful of posts.) I've just read the last 10 or so pages and to make a summary: We have a low pressure system on Tuesday that may give snow and or rain to most areas of England or Wales, but it may track too far North/South/into France, but don't worry there will be corrections upto t+0. Then we have another low pressure system on Thursday which may again give snow, rain, rain to snow or snow to rain for most of the country. After this, winter is officially over except for the reloads and potential easterly? I don't mean to sound facetious, I love the discussions and seeing the models but what must new people think? It's giving me a headache which I guess, ironically reflects the actual position of the models at the moment...Still opportunities abound. I'm quite excited for some more actual winter weather.

[Man With Beard]

Arpege 18Z has 10-20mm precipitation for SE by Wednesday morning - but how much will be rain or snow? 

[johnwirral]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Euro4 latest on Tuesday potential snow

Has it corrected north?

[kold weather]

Slight shift north of the frontal system on Thursday-Friday on the GFS ensembles. Same with the GFSP, though that model is starting from a slightly more southerly starting point. GFSP still going with front edge snow for even the south, but the GFS ensembles are far less keen and concentrate main precip further north.

[MattStoke]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Euro4 latest on Tuesday potential snow

Snow accumulation chart.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Arpege 18Z has 10-20mm precipitation for SE by Wednesday morning - but how much will be rain or snow? 

The page showing accums de neige might help?  Don’t bother looking at it ........

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Euro4 latest on Tuesday potential snow

BOOM!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Snow accumulation chart.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!

Looks brilliant across the north west , all that moving SE too..

[johnwirral]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Snow accumulation chart.

 

Looks like more evidence of a northerly correction?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, Mark88 said:

It looks like there are a lot of opportunities for snow this week or...I've read these forums for a long time but have only been a member for 2 years (and made a handful of posts.) I've just read the last 10 or so pages and to make a summary: We have a low pressure system on Tuesday that may give snow and or rain to most areas of England or Wales, but it may track too far North/South/into France, but don't worry there will be corrections upto t+0. Then we have another low pressure system on Thursday which may again give snow, rain, rain to snow or snow to rain for most of the country. After this, winter is officially over except for the reloads and potential easterly? I don't mean to sound facetious, I love the discussions and seeing the models but what must new people think? It's giving me a headache which I guess, ironically reflects the actual position of the models at the moment...Still opportunities abound. I'm quite excited for some more actual winter weather.

Good Post Mark, its not easy for a newbie, I to go to bed at night with a spinning head, read all the latest data from some of the great posters on here, check the latest met, net weather, weather online, and at the end of the day I'm still no wiser, gorra love it tho ay ayy

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, johnwirral said:

 

Looks like more evidence of a northerly correction?

S/E and london areas etc aren't meant to get anything til 21:00 or later anyways.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The page showing accums de neige might help?  Don’t bother looking at it ........

My best guess would be that anything in front of the front would be rain/sleet, and the  front itself would be the snow, so its just a case of eyeballing what the front produces.

Decent 18z EURO4, this is probably the model to watch from now on as that is its forte, so to speak, frontal conditions.

Also just to mention more of the models are weakening Tuesday's low as it swings round the base of the upper, that may lead to the frontal system weakening somewhat as it reaches E/Se England.

Edited January 27, 2019 by kold weather

[Mucka]

9 minutes ago, johnwirral said:

Has it corrected north?

Hard to say as it has only just come into range on the model. I think this band off ppn is pretty much as forecast on GFS, it is just showing it further SE as it is one hour later and perhaps arrives a tad earlier.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

My best guess would be that anything in front of the front would be rain/sleet, and the  front itself would be the snow, so its just a case of eyeballing what the front produces.

Decent 18z EURO4, this is probably the model to watch from now on as that is its forte, so to speak, frontal conditions.

Theoretically...... Exeter have supposedly better short range higher res products but not sure how we get to see their output away from the automated forecast 

[Lampostwatcher]

7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Snow accumulation chart.

Any Tuesday evening charts

[bluearmy]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

Any Tuesday evening charts

Only runs to T48 ......

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

Any Tuesday evening charts

that is tue evening..

[markw2680]

So we have a mattstoke and now a mattwolves and who knows maybe even a mattsnow this week  

lets just enjoy what this week has in store of course there will be some disappointments but also some very excited people around, let’s not worry about longer term just yet especially after the crap winter we have had so far

[kold weather]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Theoretically...... Exeter have supposedly better short range higher res products but not sure how we get to see their output away from the automated forecast 

Oh yes, I mean its the product we need to watch as we have access to it, as you say they have got higher resolution models, I've seen screenshots of it when severe thunderstorms kick off, the resolution is very impressive to say the least!

[Mucka]

This band of snow returning W/SW from the E/NE on Saturday from thu/Fri front has been showing more and more among GFS ensembles and now prominent of GFSp

Edited January 27, 2019 by Mucka