Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

[shaky]

Another step towards ecm at 84 hours from gfs!!beginning to get some agreement here but on the flatter more milder scenario!!

[Drifter]

Looks virtually identical to me so far?

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

What differences are you seeing?

It looks very similar to the 00z up to 102.

In fact it looks a little better to me.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Drifter

[winterof79]

And for those who have dropped into the thread it's not the s/e regional

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Drifter said:

What differences are you seeing?

It looks very similar to the 00z up to 102.

It’s certainly not a million miles away, we just really don’t want the low to deepen any further and as you could see it’s at least 5mb deeper this run which will lead to consequences later on.

[Ice Day]

Knife-edge stuff at 108, will the low keep separation and dive south.....?

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, knocker said:

What do you mean by dodgy blue?

Compare it to the T96 knocks ..........of course it could be that this is the first day 3.5 fax in twenty years of looking at them where all the pressure centres are predicted to be in the same place as they were 12 hours earlier ..........but I doubt it .........

[Astral Goat Juice]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

It's a much better run for the North. South is very marginal. 

[Weathizard]

Bit more interaction with the low heights to our north, blowing that low up a bit!  

[kold weather]

I'm still not convinced this system is going to be getting quite as strong as the models are expecting, sub 965mbs in this type of set-up with complex lows is somewhat on the unusual side. Although its not as extreme as the 00z ECM and whilst very low, its within the range of what is possible

Edited January 26, 2019 by kold weather

[Djdazzle]

If it’s lookIng marginal at this range, I wouldn’t be confident!

There are so many things that need to come together.

[Ice Day]

Low down to 960mb now, ignoring snow chances for a minute, that's a serious winter storm.

[SMU]

The GFS moves towards the UKMO 96 @T90 with the channel low however its not as far north- yet its further North than the 00z had it!

96 also has the -8c isotherm all the way to London which will be more supportive later in the game-

The angle & tilt of the low is sliding better than the 00z

Snow for many although mainly to the SSW then transferring slightly Ne

*** People its not the depth thats important its the shape & angle ... ***

Edited January 26, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Kentspur]

18 minutes ago, IDO said:

GFS op gives a chance for back edge snow as the front slips south east during Sunday morning:

Interesting it's been suggesting similar for a while. Do any of the other Hi Res precip models agree?

[feb1991blizzard]

Heavy snow about to hit large swathes of England at 120.

[Singularity]

Regardless of what the models show, lows not managing to phase together is far more common in reality - something to keep in mind. Essentially the likes of the ECM 00z are advertising a very rare event that would be special but not for the right reasons down south unless you enjoy wet and windy conditions.

I’ll remain sceptical if the deep single low outcomes until they’re within 48 hours range.

[BlackburnChris]

    Snow Acum T+90

[Frosty.]

00z models are chock-full of wintry potential..some of us could see a lot of snow!!

[Cloud 10]

84 hr Fax.

 

[mulzy]

That Low at day 5 is too deep and too far north - following the ECM I am afraid.  Still snow potential for many.

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Heavy snow about to hit large swathes of England at 120.

Anyone  for level 3

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

Regardless of what the models show, lows not managing to phase together is far more common in reality - something to keep in mind. Essentially the likes of the ECM 00z are advertising a very rare event that would be special but not for the right reasons down south unless you enjoy wet and windy conditions.

I’ll remain sceptical if the deep single low outcomes until they’re within 48 hours range.

Yeah that e/CM is pretty extreme, some ECM ensembles are even MORE extreme then that as well! some would be a legitimate damaging storm through wind.

Anyway the GFS looking very good for the Midlands north. For the south, we could do with it being a touch further SE and also quite a lot weaker.

We will see later on what the ensembles are saying this time round, each run has been subtly different.

[BlackburnChris]

There you go SE England .  

 

[Jackski4]

Some people very positive others saying the low is too blown up??