Cold hunt - models and chat

[northwestsnow]

ICON looks like snowfest for the SOUTH ?

I'm at work so only had a quick peak, am i right?If so we are all in the ICON camp!

[damianslaw]

I'm taking a relaxed approach to model watching at the moment - given it is a very fluid situation prone to sudden short term developments which makes even semi-reliable forecasting around 120 hr mark a more difficult task than normal. Look at the changes taking place in the orientation of Saturday's low pressure, yesterday forecast to swing SE through the UK, today it is elongating with a more pronounced warm sector - cold air delayed until Sunday away from far north. 

I expect next week to be a carbon copy of sorts to this week - another cold plunge likely perhaps more pronounced than this weeks, but with energy from off the canadian PV lobe still spoiling the party in preventing the azores - arctic high build up.. but importantly unlike this week, we will be in a better position for a slider/trough disruption scenario.

Wedges of heights in the vicinity of Iceland-Norway might be enough to lock us into a sustained cold spell, without the need for robust northern blocking - think January 2013.. not significant cold, but cold enough. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by damianslaw

[Weathizard]

7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Snowfall possibilities for the south look good on ICON 18z, from T63 through T120, the uppers remain around or colder than -5 at 850hpa so not a bad start!

Problem with that is mate, I’ve seen rain down here with -7/8 uppers from a NW direction, think I’ve only actually seen snow from a NW sourced airflow once or twice, maximum.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

I'm taking a relaxed approach to model watching at the moment - given it is a very fluid situation prone to sudden short term developments which makes even semi-reliable forecasting around 120 hr mark a more difficult task than normal. Look at the changes taking place in the orientation of Saturday's low pressure, yesterday forecast to swing SE through the UK, today it is elongating with a more pronounced warm sector - cold air delayed until Sunday away from far north. 

 

I agree, there is enough to watch out over the next 5-6 days without getting too stressed about the long term issues. Doesn't mean I'm not watching, but the situation is indeed fluid enough to not get too hung up on each run.

[edinburgh_1992]

Looking great for Scotland, good potential for snow showers next week with daytime temps hovering just above 0. 

GFS ensembles for Edinburgh

[icykev]

43 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, they can be found here:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ 

Current day 5 score here:

Currently ECM > UKMO > FV3 > GFS > GEM(CMC)

So ukmo has a good record. Winter is not over in my opinion Mike. Seasons seem to be shifting a month, two weeks IMHO. It is just getting going. What do u think on this?

[snowbob]

4 minutes ago, icykev said:

So ukmo has a good record. Winter is not over in my opinion Mike. Seasons seem to be shifting a month, two weeks IMHO. It is just getting going. What do u think on this?

Have to admit I strongly agree with that point.

winter does seem to be later in recent years 

to be honest I feel any snow before February is just a bonus

Edited January 24, 2019 by snowbob

[E17boy]

Good evening peeps

Hope you all are ok and well. Been a bit of a mixed day here in Walthamstow North East London. Started very frosty this morning then cloudy and we had som drrizly bits. Anyway it does make me laugh sometimes when I come in here the number of time the mood swings we encounter during the day. One minute it's boom next it's downgrades then winters over. I know from our hearts we want a big freeze and major snow but patience will do the trick.

i personally do not take anything serious after 4 days, at the moment we are in a complex weather setup and models are going to encounter swings and turns. To be honest we do not know even now how next week will pan out. Let's just sit back and watch this situation unfold. I am sure something good will come for us, and bearing in mind the met extended forcast is excellent so there is something they know.

Anyway peeps fingers crossed hopefully the frozen winds will be heading this way. Only time will reveal.

the wait for our winter wonderland continues 

wishing you all a lovely evening 

kind regards

[snowbob]

59 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, they can be found here:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ 

Current day 5 score here:

Currently ECM > UKMO > FV3 > GFS > GEM(CMC)

That is the verification on a global scale though

does not mean ecm is best for the uk or any other model for that matter

if it was that easy weather forecasters would be superstars lol

Edited January 24, 2019 by snowbob

[Methuselah]

Night all...Tell Nick Sussex to set his phaser to stun!

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, icykev said:

So ukmo has a good record. Winter is not over in my opinion Mike. Seasons seem to be shifting a month, two weeks IMHO. It is just getting going. What do u think on this?

 A valid point..@Later season winter.

This isnt the place...but earth axis tilt..is a continued science..

And the %degree has imo shifted...

@point 0;5 shift/tilt

Edited January 24, 2019 by tight isobar

[frosty ground]

49 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I do agree with you on this one. But to play devils advocate:

Isn't this simply another rehash of what happened last week. Indeed its almost exactly the same with the same models siding the same way as well and we all know how that went, plus climatology of this country would argue that the ECM solution is probably more likely, even withdrawing out the argument about last week.

A little part me thinks the GFS is going to buckle again tomorrow to be honest, just like last week, but equally to act like its a done deal is probably over the top as well!!

Plus the next 5-6 days do hold some interest, not for everyone, but there is enough out to warrant watching, regardless of the models longer term.

Nothing shown by the ECM or GFS is normal for the UK, the jet axis is all wrong and we are usually on the south side of the jet hence our mild climate.

As for devils advocate well I prefer to use this thread to discuss the models with the OTT reaction from the same babies for every bad run

Edited January 24, 2019 by frosty ground

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Night all...Tell Nick Sussex to set his phaser to stun!

You forgot the ing on stun

[shaky]

Gfs could be a good one here!!

[blizzard81]

That PV over Canada is like a fridge freezer that is impossible to defrost.

[kold weather]

Low coming out of the USA a solid 10mbs deeper this run out to 96hrs, other than that not a huge amount of difference this run so far.

[frosty ground]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

That PV over Canada is like a fridge freezer that is impossible to defrost.

I had one of those it turns out you just unplug it

[Mike Poole]

22 minutes ago, icykev said:

So ukmo has a good record. Winter is not over in my opinion Mike. Seasons seem to be shifting a month, two weeks IMHO. It is just getting going. What do u think on this?

I think what I always thunk icykev.  Let's recap.  This idea that everything has been pushed back from mid November to mid to late February is for the birds.  Let's deal with the starter, the early winter period first:

At the start of winter there was a number of people going for a 'front loaded winter' based on predictions of a weak tropospheric polar vortex.  I was one, and we were wrong.  The idea that a weak vortex would give rise to the blocking needed for cold for the UK was proved wrong.  Not luck, I think now, something was not conducive, very possibly sea surface temperatures, likely to ramp the jet anytime we got near a decent pressure pattern.  So that was wrong and died.

Then to the main course, and the service is slow.  

Mid December it became clear that an SSW was coming, best guess around Boxing Day, actually it happened on New Years Day, so a delay there for sure.  From that the downwelling seems to have taken ages, actually if it is happening now it is just over three weeks.  The wind reversal in the strat from the SSW was significant and lasted a while, suggesting that now that will impact our weather down here for a couple of months.  But where? Currently it seems to build high latitude blocks on the other side of the northern hemisphere, no reason why we should be favoured! So again we wait for significant cold, but the effects are being felt even here now, with some snow and colder outlook.  

Will the Narnia scenario go for us, we don't know, it might,  but if it does probably not for a week or two, but in the mean time there is a chance of snow anyway from weather from the NW dipping into cold air entrenched across the country on occasions.  

So yes, I think it is just getting going, but we need some luck to get something significant in February.  

 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

I had one of those it turns out you just unplug it

Shame we can't unplug the PV.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Low coming out of the USA a solid 10mbs deeper this run out to 96hrs, other than that not a huge amount of difference this run so far.

Deeper lows created issues on other models

[kold weather]

Looks like the GFS may look fairly similar to the UKMO/ECM at 120hrs, it looks a lot different from the 18z ICON at this point. Coming upto the key time period here between 120-144hrs.

[snowbob]

February is the switch on the socket 

that is the month the plug will be pulled on that Canadian lobe

untill then enjoy the ride

[blizzard81]

Good continuity from the GFS. It can be like a dog with a bone though.

[E17boy]

Good evening peeps 

Hope you all are ok and well. Been a bit of a mixed day here in Walthamstow North East London. Started very frosty this morning then cloudy and we had som drrizly bits. Anyway it does make me laugh sometimes when I come in here the number of time the mood swings we encounter during the day. One minute it's boom next it's downgrades then winters over. I know from our hearts  we want a big freeze and major snow  but patience will do the trick.

i personally do not take anything serious after 4 days, at the moment we are in a complex weather setup and models are going to encounter swings and turns. To be honest we do not know even now how next week will pan out. Let's just sit back and watch this situation unfold. I am sure something good will come for us, and bearing in mind the met extended forcast is excellent so there is something they know.

Anyway peeps fingers crossed hopefully the frozen winds will be heading this way. Only time will reveal.

the wait for our winter wonderland continues 

wishing you all a lovely evening 

kind regards

[Ice Day]

OK, time for the nightly 120 comparisons (GFS 114)

GFS   ECM  UKMO 

That's pretty decent agreement, I think the key to the run is between now and 144