Cold hunt - models and chat

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

I think those ECM snow cover charts have been proved absolute bunkum over last few years. Ignore.

Indeed BB...Don't measure your snow-depth ten days before it's fallen?

[Disco_Stu]

10 minutes ago, jam said:

(Deleted by Blessed Weather)

Everybody can voice their opinion, even if it's one that you don't want to hear. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Blessed Weather

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Disco_Stu said:

Everybody can voice their opinion, even if it's one that you don't want to hear. 

we need this icon for stu.

[PolarWarsaw]

17 minutes ago, jam said:

(Deleted by Blessed Weather)

Erm….enjoyment of the weather? 

I'm trying to take It to the extreme a little bit to get it into people's heads that unless charts are within T72 they need to be taken with a monster pinch of salt. 

Whereas, the normal trend is to take charts at T168 asif, they are at T6. Then instead of enjoying this thread, numerous hundreds of people that don't suffer weather model run orientated bi-polar can enjoy the experience, rather than have to sit and sarcastically laugh at those that continually build themselves up, misguide themselves and then drown in Prozac a few hours later. Entertaining for a while, but rather ruining the experience lately. Yes it's enjoyable viewing charts in the mid and long term, nobody would be around otherwise - but the balance that needs to be applied to them, sorry, rather the truck load of salt that needs to be applied to them goes amiss and we end up with a ruined thread full of grown adults behaving like stroppy teenage girls. 

Gets to a point where enough is enough. 

It's no coincidence that MOST of our more knowledgeable, sensible and level headed members chose to frequent the other model discussion more frequently than this 1.

Edited January 24, 2019 by PolarWarsaw

[blizzard81]

Incredible frigid cold seeping down into the US. This extreme is happening every winter now, no matter what the enso state is - it's ridiculous. Terrible for us as it always heads into the north Atlantic creating rapid cyclogenesis. 

[Djdazzle]

Just now, PolarWarsaw said:

Erm….enjoyment of the weather? 

I'm trying to take It to the extreme a little bit to get it into people's heads that unless charts are within T72 they need to be taken with a monster pinch of salt. 

Whereas, the normal trend is to take charts at T168 asif, they are at T6. Then instead of enjoying this thread, numerous hundreds of people that don't suffer weather model run orientated bi-polar can enjoy the experience, rather than have to sit and sarcastically laugh at those that continually build themselves up, misguide themselves and then drown in Prozac a few hours later. Entertaining for a while, but rather ruining the experience lately. Yes it's enjoyable viewing charts in the mid and long term, nobody would be around otherwise - but the balance that needs to be applied to them, sorry, rather the truck load of salt that needs to be applied to them goes amiss and we end up with a ruined thread full of grown adults behaving like stroppy teenage girls. 

Gets to a point where enough is enough. 

People have very short memories I’m afraid. Only last week were snowmageddon charts being posted which were wiped out within 24 hours. But it’s like gambling - losses lead to more losses!

[Singularity]

Perfect phasing of two lows needed D5 for ECM to transpire that point forward. Such a thing failed last week and this time we actually need that for the best retention of cold air across and to the E of the UK as the lows get involved.

The failure is common in reality so the only 20% 00z EPS support for the deep trough seems sensible. Hopefully the 12z set won’t now bump that up considerably in a troll-some manner .

[mb018538]

Looks like another monster low is brewing on the eastern seaboard in a weeks time....another kick in the goolies for us perhaps. Until that is resolved properly we don’t know what will happen. With that amount of brutal cold around though, it’s going to spin up some potent lows.

[tight isobar]

Summed up by some in ere this evening!!!!

Edited January 24, 2019 by tight isobar

[The Northern Ramper]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC snow depth charts reveal det is an absolute snow fest midlands north...

If it corrects south over the next day or 2 then the carnage moves south...

Dont want any corrections north for sure.

If it’s a snow fest for the midlands north then we don’t want it to correct at all.

Nobody cares about the M4 brigade anyway.

[tinybill]

i think  126  is the cherry on the top!!

 

[Mr Frost]

14 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Erm….enjoyment of the weather? 

I'm trying to take It to the extreme a little bit to get it into people's heads that unless charts are within T72 they need to be taken with a monster pinch of salt. 

Whereas, the normal trend is to take charts at T168 asif, they are at T6. Then instead of enjoying this thread, numerous hundreds of people that don't suffer weather model run orientated bi-polar can enjoy the experience, rather than have to sit and sarcastically laugh at those that continually build themselves up, misguide themselves and then drown in Prozac a few hours later. Entertaining for a while, but rather ruining the experience lately. Yes it's enjoyable viewing charts in the mid and long term, nobody would be around otherwise - but the balance that needs to be applied to them, sorry, rather the truck load of salt that needs to be applied to them goes amiss and we end up with a ruined thread full of grown adults behaving like stroppy teenage girls. 

Gets to a point where enough is enough. 

#metoo.

Also I have hills beside me and if more snow piles in I will be up there joining the goat! 

I will take this ECM run all day long - from a selfish Scottish goat point of view! 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[sausage]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Incredible frigid cold seeping down into the US. This extreme is happening every winter now, no matter what the enso state is - it's ridiculous. Terrible for us as it always heads into the north Atlantic creating rapid cyclogenesis. 

you have just summed it up perfectly.

no1 seems to have read my previous post!

why the meto on their money dont see these things is beyond me n they never admit there wrong!!

[northwestsnow]

I looked at the EC raw data for next friday and it looked fabulous..

Can some one confirm?

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Perfect phasing of two lows needed D5 for ECM to transpire that point forward. Such a thing failed last week and this time we actually need that for the best retention of cold air across and to the E of the UK as the lows get involved.

The failure is common in reality so the only 20% 00z EPS support for the deep trough seems sensible. Hopefully the 12z set won’t now bump that up considerably in a troll-some manner .

Haha this is winter 2018-2019, literally we have managed to screw up good background condition all winter, why stop now?!

As you say, the ECM solution should still be seen as less likely than not, but the fact the ICON and the ECM have now picked up on it...AGAIN...must give real concern.

This is almost de ja vu again, exactly the same layout as this time last week! ECM+ICON on one side and the GFS+UKMO on the other.

EDIT- also I got to say Tuesday is looking very interesting day again for a lot of us, well worth watching. We may miss what is under our noses otherwise, regardless of marginality;

Edited January 24, 2019 by kold weather

[Skullzrulerz]

My days !! Why are people so negative? Because the ECM goes nuts bound into FI?

And it's not the snow wide event that people want down south ?

People should know better that at the moment everything can change in the moderate time frame...

[Bristawl Si]

3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

i think  126  is the cherry on the top!!

 

I'd rather have the real-life cake. Yummy!

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

My days !! Why are people so negative? Because the ECM goes nuts bound into FI?

And it's not the snow wide event that people want down south ?

People should know better that at the moment everything can change in the moderate time frame...

It’s the same every year

the ignore function helps mate

the models will come together eventually 

be it cold or not

[Roger J Smith]

Bears repeating perhaps that two of the three coldest days on record in February at Toronto (1841 to present) were in the first weeks of Feb 1855 and Feb 1895 (and I imagine the same would be true for U.S. northeast locations with long enough periods of record) , so the theory that extreme cold in eastern North America will ruin chances of cold in western Europe seem to be contradicted by those facts. Two other major cold outbreaks that you could check against developments in Britain were in 1899 and 1934. Perhaps those did coincide with milder spells. And yes, it stands to reason that storms will develop somewhere over the western Atlantic when such cold interacts with the Gulf stream but these can track due north across the Canadian maritimes into the eastern arctic islands and avoid the Icelandic sector altogether. So it's probably not a real factor, the real factor is the shape of the ridge-trough couplet over North America that leads to the anomaly. 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

My days !! Why are people so negative? Because the ECM goes nuts bound into FI?

And it's not the snow wide event that people want down south ?

People should know better that at the moment everything can change in the moderate time frame...

It’s scepticism rather than negativity, things will change but could go either way. If one major model is showing a poor outcome for cold then it’s more than likely correct. Sod’s law, but very true!

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

People have very short memories I’m afraid. Only last week were snowmageddon charts being posted which were wiped out within 24 hours. But it’s like gambling - losses lead to more losses!

You're absolutely right, but in totally the opposite way than you think. 

Ask any gambler (I am one, when I can afford it!) and they'll tell you, it's not about the money, it's about the rush.

And I can also tell you that model watching with the prize of snow, seems to fire up the same thoughts and emotions as gambling.  And explains why we persist with the roller coaster, it's precisely because it is a roller coaster, and the more times we lose, it makes the elusive win better!       As we'll find out by 10 February. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Mike Poole

[mulzy]

I reckon there is good support for the det in the EPS - the mean 850s for the London area have risen significantly days 7/8.  More later...

[Roger J Smith]

This is why you should remain optimistic no matter how many times you get a poor outcome -- the chances of it happening time after time diminish with numbers of opportunities. 

Probability theory -- if there is a 10% chance of something happening, then the chances of it not happening are:

first go _ 90%

second go _ 81%

third go _ 72.9%

fourth go _ approx 65%

fifth go _ approx 60%

sixth go _ approx 54%

seventh go _ approx 50%

So if you are looking at a scenario with seven weak chances for snow, the odds of getting snow are 50-50. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Incredible frigid cold seeping down into the US. This extreme is happening every winter now, no matter what the enso state is - it's ridiculous. Terrible for us as it always heads into the north Atlantic creating rapid cyclogenesis. 

Yes, something I've noted before on here. Why is it the USA keeps copping the cold year on year? Is it the PDO? 

[weirpig]

Good in the near term  not so good in the long term  it's been the opposite all winter  so for me it's looking good  and is certainly better than chasing fi charts  144hrs onwards will change always does