Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

StretfordEnd1996 Community Regular

StretfordEnd1996

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
Posted
Just now, Cloud 10 said:

Not much of Europe escaping the snow on the 18z P.

 

gfs-16-336.thumb.png.190968183e653c6010e52cd3b8b82970.png

Look at the Costa Del Sol!! 

In reality though the parallel was a great run even in the shorter term .. will it's output disappear into nothingness by tomorrow or is it onto something

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowy36 Aficionado

snowy36

Posted
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
Posted
4 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Look at the Costa Del Sol!! 

In reality though the parallel was a great run even in the shorter term .. will it's output disappear into nothingness by tomorrow or is it onto something

It will disappear quicker than today's snow 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

Got to say i am a little disspointed with tonights output, everything seems to be going a little bit more bog standard winter type of weather really with no real full on ridges occuring. I think these polar NWlies would be look at a bit differently if we did had a decent atlantic ridge but we dont so they are not lasting long.

 

Potential for some severe gales with this low for the weekend also, so quite bog standard January wintee weather really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Tonight's 18z for this Sunday night 

I'm surprised no one is talking about it .

It could be potentially quite disruptive 

For northern areas eastern area's and the south east.

One to keep an eye on. Gale Force winds and  frequent rapid shower activity. 

Below freezing at night in a bitterly cold wind.

Drifting snow even to lower levels is possible no guarantee but possible 

Locally disruptive to hills and steep slopes .

Any snow that does fall will settle on dry frozen ground.

At this stage beyond T120 hrs is a big if.

I would take anything passed T120 day by day 

And certainly for those watching the radar Sunday night into early hours of monday . Hour by hour.

As the shower activity could be forming and moving quickly. 

The precip radar will be earning its keep Sunday night.

 

19012706_2318.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
Add
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
WhiteFox Community Regular

WhiteFox

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
Posted
7 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Tonight's 18z for this Sunday night 

I'm surprised no one is talking about it .

It could be potentially quite disruptive 

For northern areas eastern area's and the south east.

One to keep an eye on. Gale Force winds and  frequent rapid shower activity. 

Below freezing at night in a bitterly cold wind.

Drifting snow even to lower levels is possible no guarantee but possible 

Locally disruptive to hills and steep slopes .

 

Unable to sleep? Looking at a weather model will help. So my insomnia led me to the t+120 fax. It's a lovely chart for those who like it cold. An occluded front pushing in to cold air with sub 528 air thickness. 

So, hopefully some wintry PPN blown in on gale force WNW winds, certainly snow on the hills from that. For the second course, a secondary low moving SE from Iceland....

Sometimes we worry too much about things way in the future. The end of this weekend has more than a little interest and in winters past we'd have taken it as a stunning chart (if you are that way inclined of course)!

Screenshot_2019-01-24-00-58-37-790_com.android.browser.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Unable to sleep? Looking at a weather model will help. So my insomnia led me to the t+120 fax. It's a lovely chart for those who like it cold. An occluded front pushing in to cold air with sub 528 air thickness. 

So, hopefully some wintry PPN blown in on gale force WNW winds, certainly snow on the hills from that. For the second course, a secondary low moving SE from Iceland....

Sometimes we worry too much about things way in the future. The end of this weekend has more than a little interest and in winters past we'd have taken it as a stunning chart (if you are that way inclined of course)!

Screenshot_2019-01-24-00-58-37-790_com.android.browser.png

Thats an excellent looking FAX for the north west- places with reasonable altitude should get some snow showers through the day monday- something to keep an eye on (despite my intense dislike for NW winds), probs sounds strange from someone in the north west ..

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

Unable to sleep? Looking at a weather model will help. So my insomnia led me to the t+120 fax. It's a lovely chart for those who like it cold. An occluded front pushing in to cold air with sub 528 air thickness. 

So, hopefully some wintry PPN blown in on gale force WNW winds, certainly snow on the hills from that. For the second course, a secondary low moving SE from Iceland....

Sometimes we worry too much about things way in the future. The end of this weekend has more than a little interest and in winters past we'd have taken it as a stunning chart (if you are that way inclined of course)!

Screenshot_2019-01-24-00-58-37-790_com.android.browser.png

Good post couldn't agree more.

Happy radar watching 

I don't expect an early night put it that way...

I would advise people not to panic at day 8 9 10.

Lets see T120 first. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
Posted

NWS  the current radar is looking interesting ❄️❄️

Anyone having snow in the NW central or northern areas.

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BlackburnChris Enthusiast

BlackburnChris

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
Posted (edited)

Well GFS (both Op and Para) plus ECM and UKMO are all currently showing Snow next Tuesday , could be a repeat of the other day exactly a week later .

 

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by BlackburnChris
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, BlackburnChris said:

looks like Ukmo wants to stay in its rince and repeat pattern

It looks very very good and follows on from the 12z yesterday which is GOOD news- it can't be classed as a one off now..

I knew it was going to be good when i saw that 144 yesterday and its followed it with an absolute corker this morning..

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BlackburnChris Enthusiast

BlackburnChris

Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It looks very very good and follows on from the 12z yesterday which is GOOD news- it can't be classed as a one off now..

I knew it was going to be good when i saw that 144 yesterday and its followed it with an absolute corker this morning..

Looks better on NH view , That High to our East really pushing Northwards , and Low heights into Europe .

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted (edited)

Alarm went off just in time!.. UKMO showing some continuity by the sounds/looks of it (I'm beginning to understand what looks good and what looks bad)..

 

The chart @BlackburnChris posted above is only 6 days away... ICON also looks nice (i think). So here's to a glorious cold day of model watching with no hiccups!

 

edit it was @northwestsnow who posed the day 6 chart 

Edited by Jackski4
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ǝssex Ǝasterly Seasoned

Ǝssex Ǝasterly

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Take that & bank !!!!!

E2C437E9-BDE4-4A2A-ABB8-B6C4E048B99A.thumb.png.c35d52f2fd86d84f9233ffe2c36a46b3.png

Whats the time frame on that Steve? Second thoughts, why are we all awake lol

Edited by Essex Easterly.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
1 minute ago, Essex Easterly. said:

Whats the time frame on that Steve?

I think it's the UKMO on day 6 (30th Jan)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Exeter did mention the chance of significant snow in the south - the 00z runs are moving in that direction..

What a good do!!

C'mon EC!!

What time frame?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...