Cold hunt - models and chat

[Kev smith scfc]

5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

It's a "trop" for a start. Sorry if that sounds smartass. It's short for troposphere.

No probs it's my predictive text lol

[Catacol]

5 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

Catacol hope I got this statement correct , ssw come in 2 different styles a ssw or a dsw the difference between the 2 is that a ssw can influence the strop in 9 days where as a dsw can take upto 4 weeks to influence the strop,thus was a dsw why we are waiting a long time for its effects to be felt,please feel free to correct me on any of this ,

You are correct that the time spans vary a lot for impact - usually quoted as between 1 and 3 weeks. This current one is certainly at the longer end of the spectrum....so we probably haven't reached peak impacts of the combined SSW and pacific signal yet. This looks to happen at the turn of the month approximately. If we haven't got some kind of easterly flow via trough/block by the end of week 1 of Feb then I can assure you that many people will be scratching their heads and wondering what on earth has gone on with this winter. It's been a slow burner for sure - but the broad direction towards a spell of cold has been championed since the early days of the season. 

I continue to believe that the pattern will bed in as expected - and for the sake of many posters and this forum in general I really hope it will too - regardless of my own snow hunt. This is a good place to come and read/post....but I fear a non arrival of any winter might drive a lot of the more experienced posters away and turn this place into something less than pleasant. I also think we all DESERVE a bit of winter...! Maybe that's a bit greedy given what we got in March 18 in the full knowledge that the UK does not cash in on snow every year...but the hemispheric pattern has been particularly cruel this year with cold reaching southerly parts in other areas seemingly without much effort and signals for high lat blocking just not delivering so far...

...so fingers crossed for better prospects out in the 7 - 10 day bracket and beyond. Head and Heart continue to say yes as do the ensembles, SSW impacts and teleconnections. Surely our luck has to change into February!

[bluearmy]

24 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its amazing how much of an outlier the ecm is at just days 3 and 4!!!

Where ???.  Looks pretty much spot on the mean to me ....a bit out to the ne but frame by frame the op against the mean - you’ll struggle to find a run that’s closer .....ever!

if you’re referring to  the uppers then technically it is out at day 4 but that’s a very narrow spread and perfectly feasible, given the set up. Careful within the ridge trough set up ....the op may be a bit fast on the timing but it’s the same pattern . (Re slp and heights) 

Edited January 20, 2019 by bluearmy

[Updated_Weather]

Has anyone checked out wetterzentrale ensembles recently? Seems they got a slight makeover - Looks quite nice, even has a feature that you can over over each ensemble and it tells you the temp for that run

[Scandinavian High.]

So very interesting week ahead cold and some snow around the bbc did mention there could be snow showers Wednesday night in to Thursday for  south east England I can’t see nothing in models for this snow for South East England Wednesday into Thursday anyone have any idea on this thanks..

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Where ???.  Looks pretty much spot on the mean to me ....a bit out to the ne but frame by frame the op against the mean - you’ll struggle to find a run that’s closer .....ever!

Nick why your about it’s going all a bit titts up isn’t it looking at your comments on the extended eps in the other thread ? As in not looking as good as it was ? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

So very interesting week ahead cold and some snow around the bbc did mention there could be snow showers Wednesday night in to Thursday for  south east England I can’t see nothing in models for this snow for South East England Wednesday into Thursday anyone have any idea on this thanks..

EC shows it, not UKMO or GFS

[feb1991blizzard]

FALSE ALARM!!!!

Ensemble mean surface air temps for my area just above freezing the last few days of the extended with the lowest 850s mean of the year (ext eps), just a smidgeon above -7c,

Edited January 20, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[oliverek7]

Showing a few cm of snowfall accumulated by Tuesday night (GFS model) 

 

[Rocheydub]

Look at the pressure rise on the pub-run in the GIN corridor at 48 already from the 12z.... #Justsaying 

Stronger potential of a link up between Atlantic and Arctic.

Edited January 20, 2019 by Rocheydub

[bluearmy]

I’ll wait to see the clusters later ....could be a more binary set of clusters which flattens the mean pattern a bit ..... however, I think it’s more to do with the persistence of the Canadian vortex which maintains the jet flattening the attempted ridging as per the op. Could work better, could work worse re conditions for us (re snowfall) 

[karlos1983]

Hmmmmmm GIN!!!

Sounds like my sort of Corridor 

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS mean - 2cm snow from Tuesday's event.

[shaky]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Where ???.  Looks pretty much spot on the mean to me ....a bit out to the ne but frame by frame the op against the mean - you’ll struggle to find a run that’s closer .....ever!

if you’re referring to  the uppers then technically it is out at day 4 but that’s a very narrow spread and perfectly feasible, given the set up. Careful within the ridge trough set up ....the op may be a bit fast on the timing but it’s the same pattern . (Re slp and heights) 

Yeh i i meant to say 850hpa wise

[oliverek7]

8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC shows it, not UKMO or GFS

My mind is hurting from looking at the weather for so long. When I shut my eyes all i see is pressure charts.

can this cold weather just arriv already!?

[Lampostwatcher]

Interesting upgrade for Tuesday night and now in the realiable 

Could be a decent enough covering

[Don]

1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

My mind is hurting from looking at the weather for so long. When I shut my eyes all i see is pressure charts.

can this cold weather just arriv already!?

Nah, it’s already late!

[Rocheydub]

The early changes in the GIN corridor show that we are not in any way set into anything yet. No great pattern change in the near term, but there is scope for a link up with Arctic highs sooner than later. One to watch. 

 

C'mon baby, give us a link!

[Nick F]

I must admit I have been guilty of throwing caution to the wind while we were embracing the deep cold easterly evolutions that the models teased us with last week, despite the warning signs proffered by some, so I feel after being burnt one too many times over the years from easterly fails I am from now on going to take a more cautious stance of any eye candy showing beyond 6 days.

It’s still worth discussing the drivers that can change the pattern more favourably and boy it’s looked like it would fall into place given the cycles of favourable background trop forcings combined with the delayed trop-strat coupling following the SSW perhaps working together. However, we should always remind ourselves that not all strat splits can work in our favour, the current one appears to have driven a strong daughter vortex across Canada which seems to be mirrored well in the troposphere. However, so far I have yet to see firm guidance in the short range for the easterlies to downwell sustainably into the troposphere to precursor high latitude blocking this side of the northern hemisphere, so instead we have a dominant trop vortex over Canada and associated strong jet that is driving a succession of winter storms out of NE N America right towards the area where we want blocking to develop, ie Greenland and Iceland, despite  consistent blocking signals from EC46 in this area. It seems every time there is an attempt to build a ridge north over the Atlantic,  a piece of Canadian vortex and deep surface low comes in to flatten it too soon.

I suppose at least we have the persistent Euro trough on our side while the vortex over N America amplifies/digs acros the east, which will maintain a meriodional flow over the Atlantic with the UK generally on the cold polar side of the jet diving SE, so it’s looking to stay on the cold side more often than not, but with milder blips ahead of systems dropping SE from Iceland area. But such a meridional set up without blocking over Greenland and Iceland, although sufficient to bring snow at times, is never going to give sustained enough cold to keep snow on the ground for long away from hills. Any arctic high built by the models has become fairly muted so far as it’s come into the reliable timeframes and because of the energy pouring across the NW Atlantic ahead of the Canadian vortex, it has failed to connect with amplifying ridging over the N Atlantic. Until we see the models latch on to this within 6 days, I will remain more cautious despite all the favourable signals. 

The EC46 has promised us much for weeks, it’s got the Euro trough anomaly bang on but the blocking over Atlantic to Greenland and Iceland has fallen short to its expectations so far. Much more troughing in the Greenland area than the weeklies have let on. SSW and the propagation downwards of easterlies to the top of the strat has been extremely slow and arduous, with still no real results this side of the pole to show for it yet, so the wait goes on. MJO cycle has given mixed signals and certainly, even given the lag, the upper flow pattern IMO hasn’t behaved as it should have given the colder phases we’ve been through, so must be some interference there. GWO and AAM is such a complex subject to get ones head around and with a +AAM spike upcoming we’ll see if this translates to improving the chances for blocking here.

So, a more cautious approach from me from now on, but once those deep cold E or NEly charts come within 6 days, then I’ll start ramping!

Edited January 20, 2019 by Nick F

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS mean - 2cm snow from Tuesday's event.

Where? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Where? 

Diggle.

[DIS1970]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Diggle.

Get the shovels ready.

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

lol nobody mention the E word in here again for the sake of everyone's sanity

Someone mention E....I would certainly feel better popping a couple after reading the last 2 hours of this thread...Blimey!!!

[Ashme]

10

[Coastal Eddy]

5 hours ago, tight isobar said:

That's directly over the WHITE-house

No wonder there's a government shutdown !