Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Roger J Smith

February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

Recommended Posts

Whatever value the CET reaches this month, it is likely to be the warmest to follow a subzero first day.

In the past 247 years with daily data (1772 to 2018), 39 years had a zero or colder first day. The warmest February CET to follow such a start was 1992 which started at -0.1 and reached 5.4 C at end of the month. Second place was 1911 which began with a -2.0 and ended at 4.8 C. Third was 1976 which got from -0.7 to 4.5 at end of the month. 

The coldest starts to any Februaries that exceeded 6.0 were 0.5 in 1871 (to 6.1) and 0.8 in 1848 (also to 6.1). Most of the really mild Februaries were quite mild to start and all the way through. 

Edited by Roger J Smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6.0 to the 20th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 6.0 to the 20th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With a minimum of 8.5C, today only needs a max of 12.8C to set a new (provisional) daily record. A max of 14.4C or higher will put us up with the 10 warmest February days ever recorded!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12.8c already highly likely to have been beaten, 14.4 is looking very do able based on the 12pm temperatures.

Highest temperature is 16.9c so far at 12pm, quite possible we will get an 18c today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.6C +1.4C above normal. Rainfall 31.7mm 52.7% of the monthly average.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know one thing i am going to be so ridiculously far out in both fields that i desperately need a good March, really i need consistency in every month and think i need to hit one bang on the nose in the next 3 months to put me in the race, and hope some of the leaders have bad months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ed Stone must be a happy chappie after that death bed conversion he made (2.7 to 5.7, just like the month itself). 

Edited by Roger J Smith

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Whatever value the CET reaches this month, it is likely to be the warmest to follow a subzero first day.

In the past 247 years with daily data (1772 to 2018), 39 years had a zero or colder first day. The warmest February CET to follow such a start was 1992 which started at -0.1 and reached 5.4 C at end of the month. Second place was 1911 which began with a -2.0 and ended at 4.8 C. Third was 1976 which got from -0.7 to 4.5 at end of the month. 

The coldest starts to any Februaries that exceeded 6.0 were 0.5 in 1871 (to 6.1) and 0.8 in 1848 (also to 6.1). Most of the really mild Februaries were quite mild to start and all the way through. 

Feb 1998 had a CET of 7.3 (tied third warmest ever), and that had a relatively cold first three days; in fact the CET up to the 9th of that month was just 4.4*C, and it reached 7.3 by the end of that month; a reflection of how exceptional the rest of that month was.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Ed Stone must be a happy chappie after that death bed conversion he made (2.7 to 5.7, just like the month itself). 

Maybe secretly Ed Stone controls the weather.... 🤔😬☔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These are the only existing spells of 3 or more consecutive days that reached 10.0 C mean daily CET ... and to fill out the list I added one that began in January and another that ended on 1st of March, in a leap year. 

4 _ 23-26 Feb 1846 (11.3, 11.4, 10.2, 10.0 followed by 9.8, 11.1 so five in six days and 9.8 or higher for six).

4 _ 30 Jan - 2 Feb 1923 (10.0, 10.1, 11.4, 11.0 followed by 9.7 so 9.7 or higher for five days).

4 _ 11-14 Feb 1998 (10.5, 11.4, 12.0, 10.1 followed by 9.8, 9.7, so 9.7 or higher for six 11th-16th).

4 _ 2-5 Feb 2004 (10.9, 12.2, 12.8, 11.8) included the two warmest February days 3rd-4th.

3 _ 9-11 Feb 1899 (10.5, 12.0, 10.2).

3 _ 28 Feb - 1 March 1960 (11.3, 12.0, 10.3).

Not quite three days but very close ...

1779 may have been the warmest February but its best three day interval (26th-28th) ran only 10.3, 9.9 and 9.4. In fact there were only three days in that month reaching 10.0 or higher. There were many in the 8s and 9s though.

1801 had a four-day run 3rd to 6th Feb of 9.9, 10.9, 10.2 and 9.7. 

1834 exceeded 10 on last two days (27th-28th) and also on 2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th and 9th of March. The lowest daily mean in that interval (all in March though) was 8.2. It was 9.7 on 1st of March in that run. 

1869 managed two 3rd-4th and had four 10+ days in eight days (3rd to 10th) and six days (3rd-8th) that were all 9.5 or warmer (10.3, 10.7, 9.5, 9.8, 10.5, 9.6; then 8.4 on 9th and 10.4 on 10th). It had a running CET above 8 for most of the month and finished second warmest to 1779.

1903 just missed from 8th to 10th Feb with 11.4, 11.2 and 9.8. 

1912 had 9.9 on 27th then 11.1 and 10.5 on 28th-29th, but first of March did not continue above 9.0.

1914 started the month with 10.0, 9.8 and 10.1 after a 9.8 on 31st January. 

1939 had a spell from 9-12 Feb of 9.8, 10.2, 11.4, 9.2. 

1945 had four days at 10 or higher out of ten from 18th to 27th Feb, the interval between first and last two days that set that mark was not particularly mild. 

1959 started a run on 27th with 10.1, 11.4 but the first of March was 9.5 ending that borderline case.

1990 came close with 9.8, 11.5, 10.9 from 22nd to 24th, it was 11.3 on 20th so three in five days there.

2011 was also very close 5th to 7th with 10.3, 10.1 and 9.8.

2017 from 20th to 22nd ran 10.7, 9.9 and 10.0.  

___________________________________________________

So we'll see how 2019 does against that group of February warm spells. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Alot of fog/low cloud around this morning. May struggle to get the maxes required to get a 10c day today in the CET zone.

Could see another daily record though somewhere in the country.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6.2 to the 21st

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 6.2 to the 21st

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield up to 5.8C +1.6C above average. Rainfall Unchanged.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like some pretty decent sunshine totals for this month by the end. Last February was very sunny and it looks like this February is going the same way. 

For instance Manston, has gone over 100hrs of sunshine for this month up to yesterday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6.4 to the 22nd

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 6.4 to the 22nd

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like the mild spell breaks down on the 1st, so it's going to fit perfectly into Feb. Looking very mild for the rest of the month. Looks like provisionally we are going 7+.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 20/01/2019 at 08:34, Lettucing Gutted said:

Rest in pieces 'winter' 2018/2019!  :oldsad:  10C    Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C February in 2018.  Out with a mild whimper...

Also very wet with 500mm of Atlantic garbage

winner! this Feb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield at 6.2C +2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

A dry mild winter a lack of storms which you'd normally get when it's mild.

For me winter ended when I cut the lawn on Jan 6th it needs it again but its bloomin wet so catch 22. Needs to be cut but shouldn't as it's wet but it won't dry out because it's too long. I'll do it later this afternoon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These are the forecasts likely to get the top points this month:

 

Polar Gael (14) ________ 7.0 

syed2878 (26) _________ 7.0

Optimus Prime (30) _____ 6.9

DiagonalRedLine (24) ___ 6.5

(numbers in brackets are order of entry). 

LG (10.0) could go as high as 5th if the outcome is 8.0, as 5.9 is the next highest forecast (Timmytour). 

But to get to 8.0 from yesterday's 6.5 would require an average of 13.5 and it's mid-March before that's even a record high. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

winner! this Feb

Winner January 17th to the 24th.

January 27th to February 3rd pathetic short winter this year,much too dry it seemed.I would complain if it was too wet but not this year.

Driest winter since 2006 but double the rainfall to that much better winter.maybe not there has been a dryer winter to this year couple or 3 years ago remember it.

Edited by Snowyowl9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Matthew. said:

48EC6402-15EC-4AC8-B2E4-8DC597D88B44.jpegFrom Two

Only 2.5 to 3.0C too low with my guess!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sunny Sheffield at 6.3C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 31.7mm 52.7mm of the monthly total. Latest projections have us at 6.7C for the month. The warmest since 2002. The warmest winter since 2007 with final value at 5.8C This beats the year without a winter 2014.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5.8c to the 23rd, 2.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

30.8mm of rainfall so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...