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Roger J Smith

February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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I’m going for 4.3c.  Once this cold plunge passes, becoming milder and benign until a increasingly colder second half, but not really cold until last few days. A fair bit of HP influence deflecting LP systems away so only skirting/fleeting Atlantic frontal systems.  Very wet towards the end 50mm

 

so 4.3c and 50mm

 

BFTP

 

 

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Trying to decide whether to go cold and snowy or warm and wet. Cold and snowy in the end.

 

-7.8C and 350mm

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3.7c and 87mm rainfall please.

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Lets go with 3.9 degrees, another very near average month. Expecting a few fluctuations between generally cold and something milder, but no prolonged very mild weather or prolonged very cold weather - but just a hunch things could turn preety cold at the end of the month.

Some snow at times for the north, and a good few frosts as well will make it a wintry month but never especially severe. 

 

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CET 2.6C, EWP 47mm.  Probably lots of easterlies mid to late month, hence the low guess, but no prolonged spells of extreme cold.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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CET 3.2c Rain 65mm

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Well I was to low in Jan got caught out by thinking it would actually be fairly cold.

Still going to go below ave though and below ave rain.

4c

55mm

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I'll plump for 5.1c - I can see more Atlantic based weather than anything that cold.

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4.2C and 70mm please.

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Summary of on-time and late forecasts received ... late entries will be included ...

... you can still enter these contests during the first three days of February, with late penalties.

... table shows order of entry in brackets ... late entrants go L1-1, L1-2 etc. (number of days late, then the order) ... reason for showing this is to assist with scoring, earliest tied entrants get slightly more points in both contests this year. ... updated through 16z 3rd Feb, all late entries and one revised forecast with time penalty added. 

 

FORECASTER _______ CET ___ EWP _________ FORECASTER _____ CET ___ EWP

Lettucing Gutted (3) ____ 10.0 __ 500 __________ kold weather (10) ______3.9 __ 105

Polar Gael (14) ________ 7.0 __ 105.2 _________ coldest winter (23) _____ 3.9 ___ ---

syed2878 (26) _________ 7.0 ___ 80.5 _________ summer blizzard (33) ___3.9 ___ ----

Optimus Prime (30) _____ 6.9 ___ ---- __________ Mark Bayley (44) ______ 3.9 ___ ----

DiagonalRedLine (24) ___ 6.5 ___ 50 ___________damianslaw (52) ______ 3.9 ___ ---- 

Timmytour (25) ________ 5.9 ___ 95 ___________ dancerwithwings (32) ___3.8 ___ ----

Ed Stone (L3 - revised) __ 5.7 ___ 66 (27) ... late penalty only applies to CET

Radiating dendrite (L2-2) _5.3 ___ 57

weather26 (4) _________ 5.2 __ 124 ___________ daniel* (L1-3) _________ 3.8 ___ 77

Ultima Thule (L2-3) _____ 5.2 ___ 70

 IRememberAtl 252 (19) _ 5.1 ___ 137 ___________Feb91Blizzard (48) ____ 3.7 ___ 87

Froze were the Days (56) 5.1 ___ ---- ___________ Deep Snow (16) _______3.6 ___ ---

vizzy2004 (L1-1) _______ 5.1 ___ 77 ___________Godber 1 (43) ________ 3.6 ___ 70

Reef (35) _____________5.0 ___ 55 ___________ DR(S)NO (12) ________ 3.5 ___ 75

average 1989-2018 ____ 4.9 ___ 72.8 _________ Man With Beard (34) ____3.5 ___ ----

Roger J Smith (58) _____ 4.8 ___ 89.6 _________ Mulzy (38) ____________3.5 ___ 50

Pegg24 (14) __________ 4.6 ___ 90 ___________ Leo 97t (51) __________3.5 ___ ----

Norrance (46) _________ 4.5 ___ 35 ___________Kentish Man (61) ______ 3.4 ___ ----

average 1981-2010 ____ 4.4 ___ 66.5 __________Jonathan F. (11) _______3.3 ___ ----

virtualsphere (20) ______ 4.4 ___ 83 ___________ DAVID SNOW (63) ____ 3.3 ___ 33

Summer Sun (50) ______ 4.4 ___ ---- ___________ J10 (54) ____________3.2 ___ 65

snowray (L1-4) _________4.4 ___ ---- 

B87 (2) _______________4.3 ___ 20 ___________ sundog (39) _________3.0 ___ ----

Blast from the Past (45) __4.3 ___ 50 ___________ CheesepuffScott (5) __ 2.9 ___ 77

Born from the Void (57) __4.3 ___ 70 ____________ icykev (1) ___________2.8 ___ 97.7

Kirkcaldy Weather (9) ___ 4.2 ___ 92.6 __________ nn2013 (15) _________ 2.8 ___ ----

The PIT (18) __________ 4.2 ___ 50 ___________ Ed Stone __ revised see 5.7

Midlands Ice Age (42) ___ 4.2 ___ 55 ______Thundery Wintry Showers (53)_ 2.6 ___ 47

Don (59) ______________4.2 ___ 70 ___________ dami (22) ___________ 2.3 ___ 89

Nigerian Prince (60) _____ 4.2 ___ 50___________ jonboy (37) __________ 2.2 ___ 70

snow dayz (L1-2) _______4.2 ___ 85 ___________ 

weather-history (36) ____ 4.1 ___ 57 _____________SteveB (17) _________2.1 ___ 67

Bobd29 (7) ___________ 4.1 ___ 45 _____________ brmbrmcar (21) ______ 1.9 ___ 70.9

davehsug (41) _________ 4.1 ___ 77 ____________ Walsall Wood Snow (29)_1.6___ ----

Stationary Front (49) ____ 4.1 ___ 78 ____________ ProlongedSnowLover (L2-1) _ 1.5

seaside60 (55) ________ 4.0 ___ 65 _____________ Let It Snow ! (40) ______1.1 ___ 51

Jeff C (8) _____________4.0 ___ 70 _____________ cheeky monkey (6) ____ -0.2 ___ ---- 

stargazer (28) _________ 4.0 ___ 49 _____________ Deep snow please (47) _ -7.8 __ 350

stewfox (31) ___________4.0 ___ 77 _____________

Duncan McAlister (62) ___4.0 ___ ----

________________________________________________________

Consensus: 70 CET forecasts, median 4.0 __ 50 EWP forecasts, median 70 mm. 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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4.2C 50MM precipitation. Mild start but especially after mid month a greater chance of colder weather coming from the East.

Gender Male Location Battersea, London.

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Late for the first time...oooppps.

5.1c and 77mm for me please, thanks.

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Looks like the way any deep cold failed to have set up during Jan is anticipated by a few cold forecasters to be the same this month.   This was my anticipated average month....nothing unfortunately to change that view.  Good luck 

 

BFTP

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To be honest i wanted something a bit higher but i like going for something on my own (or at least first) as i have never had an outright win.

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3.8C maybe we’ll see most significant cold/snow of winter come in second half of Feb...  77mm

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