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February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Oh deary dear... I got so excited at the prospect of seeing one inch of snow that I totally forgot to check the long term charts the past two days. They've clearly swung back milder. I'm going to need a lot of luck to get close to 3.5C now :help:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Late entry from me, 4.4c please.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

CET extremes for February (1772-2018) and 1981-2010 means

____________________________________________________________

DATE .... MAX (year) .... MIN (year) .. .. 1981-2010 avg, cum to date .... Highest and lowest running CET to date

01 Feb ... 11.4 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ... 11.4 (1923) ... ... ... -6.8 (1956)
02 Feb ... 11.0 (1923) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ... 11.2 (1923) ... ... ... -6.6 (1956)
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ...10.8 (1923) ... ... ... -6.2 (1956)
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -5.0 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7.... .... ... 11.3 (2004) ... ... ... -5.0 (1956)
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ... 11.4 (2004) ... ... ... -4.9 (1830)

06 Feb ... 10.3 (1866) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.9 (2004) ... ... ... -5.1 (1830)
07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.3 (1994) ... ... ... -3.7 (1830)
08 Feb ... 11.4 (1903) ... -8.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 9.6 (1994) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831) ... -8.8 (1816)*... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.4 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.2 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 9.3 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.9 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -7.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.1 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
15 Feb ... 11.2 (1958) ... -8.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

16 Feb ... 10.0 (1928) ... -7.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.8 (1895)
19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.4 (1895)

21 Feb ... 10.6 (1813) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895)
22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855) 
23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 
24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 
25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.3 (1855&1895) 

26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.1 (1855&1895&1947)
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947)

29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.4 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 6.9 (1872) ... ... ... -0.2 (1956)

*(1895 was -7.4 on 9th, coldest week in Feb was 6-12 Feb 1895 at --6.3).

10.4 in 2016 almost a record on 21st.

___________________________________________________________

To see a new table of recent CET extremes (since 1940) have a look here. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91132-cet-averages-and-extremes-1772-to-2018-updated/?page=1

(near bottom of page, tables of recent compared to all-time CET daily extremes).

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

-0.3 to the 1st

4.5c below the 61 to 90 average
4.7c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month -0.3 to the 1st

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

0.4 to the 2nd

3.9c below the 61 to 90 average
4.0c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 0.4 to the 2nd

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
On 28/01/2019 at 17:28, Ed Stone said:

2.7C and 66mm please...

If I'm nae too late, I'd like to 'correct' my guess to 5.7C???

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
11 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Not too late, you would incur a late penalty of 3 days on the CET portion (the EWP if unchanged won't be penalized). 

Please confirm this is your forecast (5.7). 

Aye Roger. Thanks...

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Contest entry deadline has passed now even for three day late penalties, the tables of entries are updated in this thread and posted over to the contest thread where the EWP forecasts are also listed in order. We have a lot of tied forecasts this month, 50, 57, 70 and 77 mm had multiple entries (in one case, six chose the same value). This year, you do lose some points for a later duplicate effort in the EWP contest, it's a half step down (0.1 points per later entry) rather than one full place. The other difference from CET scoring is that equal errors on opposite sides of the result are scored the same, order of posting them does not enter into play. It won't happen a lot anyway with a decimal point used to determine errors and most forecasts being round numbers, but it can happen. 

I was looking at the latest GFS output and from that it appears that any rise in temperatures will be gradual, estimate being 3.0 by mid-month. That is still rather cold for February. Several days appear to be warmer than 7 but not so many that the average will soar. 

1055 mb high near Novaya Zemlya showing only slight signs of movement west, we can always hope I suppose. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Reading MO update, me thinks at the moment there could be some well busted forecasts for this month if that colder weather fails to come back also the rainfall totals look as though they could be up towards average at this rate, so thats me well done on that one, esp as done so well on the first two months. Frustrating to say the least.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

0.6 to the 3rd

3.7c below the 61 to 90 average
3.9c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 0.6 to the 3rd

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Another February now looking set to pass by without being notably cold.  It is now 28 years since the last really cold February (1991).  On three occasions in recent years we have been relatively cold (CET close to 3*C), but there has not been a significantly below average February (CET below 2*C) since 1991.  My view is that we are long overdue a notably cold February.  We managed it in March in 2013.  I wonder if we will ever see a really cold February again.

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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
11 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Another February now looking set to pass by without being notably cold.  It is now 28 years since the last really cold February (1991).  On three occasions in recent years we have been relatively cold (CET close to 3*C), but there has not been a significantly below average February (CET below 2*C) since 1991.  My view is that we are long overdue a notably cold February.  We managed it in March in 2013.  I wonder if we will ever see a really cold February again.

These quirks in the climate series are perhaps just part of statistical variation but are intriguing nonetheless- a bit like the lack of a really hot August for feels like ages. 

The absence of a cold Feb <2 in the CET series is a shame though if we could achieve that would certainly satisfy us cold hunters - looks like another year to wait though ...

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

1.5 to the 4th

2.8c below the 61 to 90 average
3.2c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 1.5 to the 4th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

A late entry but I'll go for a CET estimate of 4.5C

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

A late entry but I'll go for a CET estimate of 4.5C

Past the deadline I think

Quote

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Thursday 31st January, or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Sunday 3rd February. Good luck!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Past the deadline I think

 

No worries, I'll be back for March 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

2.0 to the 5th

2.4c below the 61 to 90 average
2.8c below the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 2.0 to the 5th

Current low this month -0.3 to the 1st

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