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February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
49 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The question I'm asking myself is why are some records are more resilient than others?

...

Top 3 for July and August are modern, yet the top 3 for May and June, the most recent of which could be described as  very early Victorian.

Collecting a top 10 place for October seems a synch, but the month previous, September, has only 4. The earliest October record now left in the top 10 is 1831 and yet September has 4 in the top 10 that ealier than 1831.

Junes top 10 looks ancient, most modern is 1976 then back to 1970, most of them are way back.

 

I wonder if it is due to ocean temperatures rising more quickly than land temperatures?  Therefore the period more prone to westerly / Atlantic driven conditions would see a greater chance of higher temperatures and April - June, being more prone to continental weather, and continental weather itself being more likely to deliver record highs than in winter, would be less affected?  

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
19 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The calendar may say that we are just finishing the month of February, but weather and climate wise have we really had a February?  How can anyone possibly say that we have had a February this year, instead that we have suddenly skipped from January to March or even April.  The CET for this February is very likely to fall between the average for March and April, and the exceptionally warm second half of this February would be very typical of an average decent fortnight during April.

Of course we've had a February this year. You do realise it was also February in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere where it was actually Summer. We can't only call it February if it snows. 

Or as the Aussies might say 'that's northern hemisphere chauvinism mate' .

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

In most places in British Columbia this has been the coldest February on record and the coldest winter month since January, 1979. So that's a more extreme swing to cold in statistical terms than this has been to warm, although I would rate them about equally anomalous. The cold anomaly covers all of the western U.S. as well, Phoenix ended the month more than 3 C deg below their average. Seattle WA was close to 4 C deg below average. The same is true for my location, the monthly normal here is -1 and this month will be at least -5, possibly -6 (we have a climat station that reports in at the end of each month, but going by the nearest airport and also my own thermometer readings it has been around -12 at night and -4 in the daytime here throughout this cold spell). We have had normal snowfall but no rain which usually matches snowfall here and a lot more sunshine than is usual in our winters.

The cause is basically a high-amplitude but stationary ridge-trough pattern in the hemisphere. Once it set up around the first week, it remained locked in. Our colder trend began on 2nd-3rd Feb after a mild spell that was still running on 1st here. Just as you were into the last portion of a two-week cold spell that ended at roughly the same time. 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

At 6.7c February 2019 shares the same mean monthly CET with February's: 1997, 1750 and 1702.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The peaks in recent warming that show up around April and October could be the result of an external influence that has slowly rotated around the solar system from an earlier March-September alignment, with the earth passing through that alignment and receiving additional solar energy from the interaction. I will have a look at plausible time scales which might identify the culprit. Without crunching some numbers, I can't say whether the alignment is moving really slowly or at a more moderate speed, which would perhaps reveal itself in January-July then February-August, March-September and finally April-October peaks of relative warmth. Also it might be more complicated with the winter component turning into a blocking high especially in colder climatic periods when the jet stream was generally more suppressed in winter.

Although I see some merit in the idea that the "shoulder" seasons of summer will have the largest impacts in a warming climate, the peaks are a little more robust than we find in North American terms where records tend to be somewhat more evenly distributed, although the same April-October recent warming phenomenon can be seen in some data over here as well. 

If the cause is external, then it's likely to be on the October side of the solar system rather than the April side, as the peak is broader and more significant in October-November than April-May. But the Sun's response to it could be almost equal localized energy peaks towards and away from the source. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

It's worth making it clear that in terms of maximum temperatures, this was the warmest February on record. Therefore to the man on the street, it will have felt warmer than any previous February.

The clear skies have prevented the overall CET from being higher in the rankings, but have also allowed for those higher maximum temps during the day. On the face of it, this month has finished the same as 1997, which was no where near as memorable and much cloudier.

Certainly the best February I can remember- especially as the CET was below freezing after the first day of the month!

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
44 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The peaks in recent warming that show up around April and October could be the result of an external influence that has slowly rotated around the solar system from an earlier March-September alignment, with the earth passing through that alignment and receiving additional solar energy from the interaction. I will have a look at plausible time scales which might identify the culprit. Without crunching some numbers, I can't say whether the alignment is moving really slowly or at a more moderate speed, which would perhaps reveal itself in January-July then February-August, March-September and finally April-October peaks of relative warmth. Also it might be more complicated with the winter component turning into a blocking high especially in colder climatic periods when the jet stream was generally more suppressed in winter.

Although I see some merit in the idea that the "shoulder" seasons of summer will have the largest impacts in a warming climate, the peaks are a little more robust than we find in North American terms where records tend to be somewhat more evenly distributed, although the same April-October recent warming phenomenon can be seen in some data over here as well. 

If the cause is external, then it's likely to be on the October side of the solar system rather than the April side, as the peak is broader and more significant in October-November than April-May. But the Sun's response to it could be almost equal localized energy peaks towards and away from the source. 

Or perhaps, more plausibly, when solar input is constant, months affected more by retained heat show a higher bias towards warmer than average conditions in a warming world which takes longer to cool in Autumn/winter. Temperatures in the summer half on the other hand, are more affected by solar input so retained heat from the previous season is not as notable a factor.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield finished on 6.9C joint 2nd warmest. A dry month with 32.3mm of rain 53.7% of average. Considering that we only got above average by the middle of the month it shows how warm the 2nd half was.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
5 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Of course we've had a February this year. You do realise it was also February in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere where it was actually Summer. We can't only call it February if it snows. 

Or as the Aussies might say 'that's northern hemisphere chauvinism mate' .

What I was saying is that although the calendar says that we have just had a February, its temperatures and overall weather in the UK was more typical of a month from mid March to mid April, so although the calendar may have not skipped February, the weather this year has certainly suddenly slipped from January to a mid March to mid April period.  It could turn out that this year the British Weather has two Marches or even three Aprils and no February.

The only thing in relation to February that last month was, would be something like the "February equivalent" of March 2012.  That month was a very warm March with the maximum average very high, and had some notably warm days (by March standards) in the final third of that month, with widespread maxima close to 20*C and a few places up to 72-73*F.  Even further back there was the likes of Marches 1948 and 1938 (very much "March" equivalents of Feb 2019) both of which had many notably warm days for March.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Monthly

Joint winners this month DiagonalRedLine and Optimus Prime both 0.2c out.

While Polar Gael and syed2878 both 0.3c out.

image.thumb.png.9473299681070f7e4509234a87e83d22.png

Seasonal / Overall

1st Froze were the Days
2nd vizzy2004
3rd BornFromTheVoid

Interestingly syed2878 back up to 4th from 25th after being first in December. 

image.thumb.png.a9cc35360510b3242a3e4d8a6fd66911.pngimage.thumb.png.2d2c7b2dac95cd1f0315af64c3b0179a.png

Spreadsheet

Feb 19 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
9 hours ago, Weather-history said:

The question I'm asking myself is why are some records are more resilient than others?

Take the top 10 warmest of each month and how many have occurred since WWII.

January: 4

February: 4

March: 7

April: 4

May: 2

June: 2

July: 5

August: 7

September: 4

October: 10 (3 joint 10th)

November: 5

December: 3

Top 3 for July and August are modern, yet the top 3 for May and June, the most recent of which could be described as  very early Victorian.

Collecting a top 10 place for October seems a synch, but the month previous, September, has only 4. The earliest October record now left in the top 10 is 1831 and yet September has 4 in the top 10 that ealier than 1831.

Junes top 10 looks ancient, most modern is 1976 then back to 1970, most of them are way back.

 

It is difficult to say, one thing to note about winters before 1900 were generally much drier. One assumption is that when we get extended spells of high pressure from April-June the ground can heat up a lot quicker. However that would be speculation, it could also be related to synoptics... the warmest May's and Junes generally occur when we don't see a return of traditional westerlies... 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
7 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

At 6.7c February 2019 shares the same mean monthly CET with February's: 1997, 1750 and 1702.

One other thing I've just realised is that 2019 shares the same individual CET's for both January (4.0c) and February (6.7c) with 1750 which is quite interesting. The CET for March that year was an impressive 8.2c. Perhaps it would be a bit much to hope for a joint hat trick with that year though .

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

Finished on Mean (1 minute)  6.7 C, Mean (min+max)   6.9 C here, using the min+max that is 2.6 C above average and rainfall 29.0 mm 56.5 % of average 


 

Edited by Kirkcaldy Weather
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The Hadley EWP tracker reached 55 mm for the month. The final value will be posted in their tables in a few days. But for now, this is the provisional scoring for the month and the annual update (which is equivalent to the winter seasonal scoring). 

Reef and Midlands Ice Age have the current estimated value as their forecasts and would score 10.0 and 9.9. Following them would be weather-history (57 mm) with 9.6 points and then Let It Snow! (51 mm) with 9.2 points. Radiating Dendrite also had 57 mm but was two days late and lost 0.5 points (2nd entry) so would be fifth place at 9.1 points. From sixth to tenth places are all those who had 50 mm with their various deductions for duplicate entries and in one case a late entry, points range from 9.0 (The Pit who was first to post 50 mm) to 8.1. 

In the annual (and winter season) race, the top five are Blast from the Past, weather-history, Reef, Thundery Wintry Showers and Mulzy. Seaside60, Born from the Void, Don, MidlandsIceAge and vizzy2004 round out the top ten.

All scoring can be seen here: 

 

EWP20182019c.xlsx

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Updated scoring report for Normals and consensus

 

Dec 2018 __________________________________ Jan 2019 _______

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ________ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 ___ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _________3.5 ___ -0.5 ___16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6

1989-2018*_4.9 ___ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _________4.7 ___ +0.7 ___21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4

1981-2010__4.6 ___ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 ___4.4 ___ +0.4 ___14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4

 

Feb 2019 ____________________________________ Average (3 months)

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points __________abs error __ rank __ points 

Consensus_ 4.0 ___ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1 _____ 1.7 ___27 to 29 _ 58.8 to 61.7 

1989-2018*_4.9 ___ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3 ___________ 1.5 ___ 23 to 23 _ 66.9 to 67.8

1981-2010__4.4 ___ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0 _____ 1.7 ___ 24 to 26 _ 62.7 to 65.1

____________________________________________________________________________

From this we can conclude that our forecasts as a group are not improving on recent 30-year normals, with the most recent (1989-2018) opening up a bit of a lead on the other two robots for the time being. December and February were similar in that as a group we stuck near average but the months were quite mild. We did somewhat better with December than February. For January we were too cold with that forecast by about the same error that the normals were too mild. 

In terms of total points, or average errors, these three robots would be middle of the pack in annual scoring. Almost half of you are doing better than any of them. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

The Hadley EWP tables have been updated, and the provisional value of 55.0 mm (as per the tracker) has been confirmed as the actual value. This means that the provisional excel file of scoring posted a few days ago (two posts back) is now the official scoring table. As I've mentioned, they regularly adjust previous months and January has changed from the 46.8 mm we used for scoring, to 47.1 mm. That change does not appear in the excel file. I may post these scores in the other thread (contest scoring) and if so will update that change also. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Just noticed I won the winter 2018/19 CET comp...I really should do a winter forecast but I keep backing out at the last minute, I know easy to say in hindsight but my thoughts were for a largely disappointing winter in terms of cold but with 1 noteworthy spell (not sure the end of January merited that though some parts of southern and south western England did briefly get a good dumping). Maybe this winter I will do one but I won't go as far as week by week which to be fair is almost impossible.

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