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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just seen this on Gavin p. Page gfs op has flipped to something less cold but the ensembles are trending colder or very cold..?

8C5B63FF-3EF6-49D5-9067-348AA69382EA.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Now c'mon...

A blip looks the worst..in the grand scheme.

Again..with gfs ens ..

V-decent variants  .

graphe_ens3 (3).png

ECM an outlier as early as day 3..

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From what I can remember just before last years beast the models couldn’t get to grips with the position of the high pressure to our north and just 3 days before it came, the ecm showed the main thrust of cold heading to France and north Spain, before just the next day a north correction and we were in the sweet spot so I’m going to give it until Monday 12z before calling it, we might just get this easterly you never know .

Edited by Pembroke Dangler
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Great mean from ecm days 8,9,10 all eyes Northwest now.🤙

EDH1-192.gif

EDH1-216.GIF

EDH1-240.gif

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Awesome..very cold and unsettled = SNOW!❄️❄️☃️❄️❄️

EDM0-240.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

Aye, avg not at all to bad to me.

E2FDC18E-8B2A-483E-90ED-ACCCCC6B4FF2.thumb.png.eccd47137ae9c79d0afb14a225443ec0.pngCD4CC991-AF52-4BB5-9EF7-05E29BAABF13.thumb.png.06df29af0f5e6c2197dddeea4eb13ba1.png

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It so reminds me of this time last week, potential PV chunk moving our way, now chance again

gfs-0-252.png?12gfs-0-222.png?12

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

The blow of losing the easterly is raw but i believe we will see north westerlies and the hope, not expectation , the hope, is we see heights building in the N Atlantic...

Which is what i suspect Exeter are signposting in their updates...

I still think we will see northeasterlies showing again on the charts in the next couple of days if the AO s forecast for strong negative  sticks over the next few days 

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Just now, Eastnorthwest said:

I still think we will see northeasterlies showing again on the charts in the next couple of days if the AO s forecast for strong negative  sticks over the next few days 

Its possible of course...

But my honest opinion is that the Easterly is gone, i would be very happy to be wrong..

My hope is we see some re amplification in the Atlantic day 7 onwards..

No euro high to deflect the jet north..

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Frustrating. There is our chance at 96 hrs but would require an unlikely miracle at this stage unfortunately. Just can't get the connection between the mid Atlantic high and Artic high. A tad too much energy through the GIN corridor.

EDM1-96.GIF?19-0

Edited by The Eagle
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8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

ECM an outlier as early as day 3..

Like I said ecm looked very dodgy @96

ecm is trying to work this out

every single experienced poster said that last weeks route to cold was odd

this ain’t the norm

this still is in the balance I think

Edited by snowbob
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Just now, mulzy said:

Guess what folks?

Ext EPS Solid as ever and if anything trending colder!

(Some may cry "jam tomorrow" but the medium range outlook looks tasty).

 

Yes, i posted previously my hope this storm will delay , not cancel a cold pattern..

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12 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just seen this on Gavin p. Page gfs op has flipped to something less cold but the ensembles are trending colder or very cold..?

8C5B63FF-3EF6-49D5-9067-348AA69382EA.jpeg

Was going to mention that earlier.  They look like the first GFS ensembles approaching or that have actually breached the -15 mark all Winter.  Not in deep FI either....🤔

The period from next weekend onwards needs watching closely IMO.  Could be all sorts of fireworks showing up on the models for that time frame over the next few days.

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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4 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

I still think we will see northeasterlies showing again on the charts in the next couple of days if the AO s forecast for strong negative  sticks over the next few days 

Correct, AO looks to tank into Feb.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

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Just now, tight isobar said:

Dan - its mass diverge atm..

But the signs are great..as we get the 96hr (crucial insight)..

The raws are playing and trying with the fabbled north west/nor-hem notions..

We'll likely be be bk firmly in the game very soon..and with solid cross model support...

Shes coming...

And bringing the once..baby to the door..

As a clad/ dapper dressed fella...

Exactly what I said

just not as poetic as you mate

ecm will solve this first

maybe as early as tomorrow’s 12z

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47 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This is a very encouraging sign. The updated fax chart for Tuesday is more amplified in the Atlantic than the previous two charts for the same day. Far sharper with the US low. 

fax72s (1).gif

fax84s (1).gif

fax96s (1).gif

But what does this mean ?

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Just now, Stuie W said:

Correct, AO looks to tank into Feb.

 

ao.sprd2.gif

Indeed look how it dives to -3 recovers to -2 then dives again to around -4/5

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8 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just seen this on Gavin p. Page gfs op has flipped to something less cold but the ensembles are trending colder or very cold..?

8C5B63FF-3EF6-49D5-9067-348AA69382EA.jpeg

Those handful of  -10 to-15 members are disproportionately skewing the mean though

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Time to keep the faith people 😎

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2 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Indeed look how it dives to -3 recovers to -2 then dives again to around -4/5

The lowest it has ever been in Feb since 1950 was -4.266

Edit: That was 2010 btw

Edited by Stuie W
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Well I thought I would do a round up of the 12z runs at T144, interesting split we have this evening, the big three and icon.....

                                          VERSES....The so called lesser models.

 

ECM, GFS, UKMO, ICON

ECE1-144.thumb.png.054f6ae0768bb9e512218e0298764d48.pnggfs-0-144.thumb.png.13a6ab1a6c1d3fd5e11dfe70a5a2b679.pngUW144-21.thumb.gif.b4c8806f5043361b596ccf083b80be02.gificoneu-0-144.thumb.png.01ef3770c3543ed7ef66f996ef632abd.png

 

GEM, JMA, NAVGEM, CMA

gemeu-0-144.thumb.png.623129a74fa3eeb60d90a2d594f3bdbb.pngJ144-21.thumb.gif.bd9a21a29f30145ab53c7d102b6653bf.gifnavgem-0-144.thumb.png.a2cdf2b1cd3ff265e5c826cc920a0699.pngcma-0-144.thumb.png.ee74db0dcfb3b4ad23511ee51966c6f4.png

Interesting that the lesser models all seem to still go for an easterly, maybe thats because they are indeed inferior, but it would be interesting if the got this right for a change after the likes of UKMO and ECM apparently failing miserably where they should be pretty well the strongest around the T120-T144 timeframe. As they say, it's not happened yet. 

Edited by snowray
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its possible of course...

But my honest opinion is that the Easterly is gone, i would be very happy to be wrong..

My hope is we see some re amplification in the Atlantic day 7 onwards..

No euro high to deflect the jet north..

I think let’s wsit until 12z tomorrow before we say it’s gone, there’s still enough uncertainty to cast doubt atm

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2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

But what does this mean ?

Fax charts are drawn up by the Met office chiefs based on all available output, normally they stick with the UKM raw model and just copy it in black and white but today they have modified it to show a much better starting position than the UKM 96:120 chart from the 12z

 

Just now, cobbett said:

Those handful of  -10 to-15 members are disproportionately skewing the mean though

Likewise the handful of +5 members are ‘skewing the mean’ you can’t really skew a mean can you?

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1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

But what does this mean ?

For me, i am more interested in the trend in those Surface pressure charts. The Azores High is trying to strengthen and push North West on the 3 runs. The original poster is more concerned with the USA low so will let them explain that. However i suggest Exeter see the high at least attempt to ridge North towards the Artic, One to watch

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