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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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1 hour ago, danm said:

Sorry, but I’ve got to pull you up on this. 

Anyone’s disappointment with the potential collapse of this cold spell vs what the teleconnective signals were predicting is flawed. No one guaranteed the UK would see anything. The point was ALWAYS that a SSW, plus other favourable background signals, increased the probability of a UK cold spell, not guaranteed it. 

Those same experts you refer to have also stated that micro scale features and spoilers can/could always result in the UK just missing out. If you temper your expectations then you wouldn’t feel the need to criticise those experts on here who have been largely bang on with the broad scale pattern changes we’ve seen. 

 

This is called confirmation bias. 

You have rationalised every outcome as being a vindication of 'experts'. When I look at MO I see a relative (not total) lack of northern blocking and a resurgence of an active although meridional jet. There is no proven causal link of current synoptics to the much vaunted tele-connective signals. 

There's a danger here that the science is not challenged because confirmation bias leads to a complacency. I'd like to see a little more self critical analysis by 'experts' of what has gone wrong. Why has the trop response not been forthcoming, or been so delayed, or even just been rather minimal?

Because something has gone wrong this winter, and there's no point in pretending it hasn't.    

 

 

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

JMA 192 (Am I on everybodies ignore?) :cold:

JN192-7.GIF?19-12

? No, I'm with you Mucka.  Not holding out much hope for the JMA at the moment given the model onslaught from this afternoon.

ECM comes up with a nice northerly at 192 but I assume nothing more than a toppler (straining every sinew to tempt fate!)

image.thumb.png.f07594c4de8cd0f3f77b716334b1b016.png

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I did say it wasn't over! 

ECM 192h brings the cold in again..

image.thumb.png.d44cc6b2f78b7e30c7771511dd9281f2.png

It looks to me, dare I say it, the jet could dg south even more and that would make it very cold..

Fantasy land may be, but the ingredients are there!

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM t192 should cheer a few up

ECM1-192.thumb.GIF.9f2f1bc004b14a5388ae194317c6775f.GIFECM0-192.thumb.GIF.2903a2ee25d6fa8a2febdd1c6fe83e3b.GIF

Yes but it won’t get there like this as it’s all wrong earlier on, it’s all too quick in it’s progression imo but I guess we will no a lot more this time tomorrow 

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12 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

This was always going to be a slow response because it was a DSW not a normal SSW,it will happen but not until 3/4 FEB,research a DSW .

There are very few composite analogues available for DSWs; even SSWs only have a small number to factor into their physics. All the more reason to distrust lower level/surface NWP currently. 

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1 minute ago, Disco_Stu said:

....and all the other models are perfect I suppose? ?

Yeah you both have a point. JMA isn't any great shakes despite Fergie once saying it was respected by the MetO but then what model has handled this well and gives any confidence its output won't change again tomorrow?

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7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ecm cool/cold then blip as energy goes over the top followed by a north/ north easterly. Horrendous I know??? 

Indeed, ties in with forecast I've just seen, terrible news ??

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Nearly an exact replica of yesterday’s UKMO 144, JMA is useless nowadays though....

4FE55064-60FC-4259-BD61-D77787BCF1AF.gif

The ICON was being called useless yesterday too! Models are all over the place at the moment.

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What I find interesting is how the lower resolution models are continuing to go for the Easterly solution while all the high resolution models have ditched it

CMA.thumb.png.4e54c0d3fdff3b229b6e463988bf159c.pngJMA.thumb.gif.4edc64b6c0945b600c7b69e9a2925759.gif

Is this a case of the lower resolution not being able to pick out the subtle changes in the USA lows track and ultimately has less energy coming into the Atlantic allowing the high to amplify and develop into an Easterly, or is this a case of the High Resolution models "over forecasting" the low and over reacting resulting in a much flatter pattern?

ECM is much improved out to T120 and then just goes off on a very weird, probably unrealistic evolution. 

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2 minutes ago, Borei said:

 

This is called confirmation bias. 

You have rationalised every outcome as being a vindication of 'experts'. When I look at MO I see a relative (not total) lack of northern blocking and a resurgence of an active although meridional jet. There is no proven causal link of current synoptics to the much vaunted tele-connective signals. 

There's a danger here that the science is not challenged because confirmation bias leads to a complacency. I'd like to see a little more self critical analysis by 'experts' of what has gone wrong. Why has the trop response not been forthcoming, or been so delayed, or even just been rather minimal?

Because something has gone wrong this winter, and there's no point in pretending it hasn't.    

 

 

Obviously i am no expert but i did think that the 10mb split wasn't wide enough, and while it allowed for wedges in the lower atmosphere, wedges are a lot less predictable and stable than proper Northern blocking.

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