Jump to content

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Step towards UKMO from ECM, I'm afraid

 

3 minutes ago, Matty M said:

EC 96hrs looks somewhat better than the UKMO or GFS

Eh? Looks further west to me but I’ll wait to be sure before posting definitively (!).

Edited by supernova
  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

Posted Images

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Uppers are around -7 in NW Britain at 72-

image.thumb.png.751d1995936eafb485530b9bdb48b5d5.png

High ground event i would have thought- although thats a guess purely on 850s, perhaps others have more data(dps etc).

For comparison, the snow I saw last night was from -2 uppers, and I’m only at a modest altitude (146 m). Not sure about other parameters though. -5 to -7 would give a decent chance to low levels, I think, so long as other factors are favourable.

Edited by MattStoke
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Step towards UKMO from ECM, I'm afraid

You do realise it was the UKMO that stepped towards the ECM don’t you? 

It would be wise if people actually let the run unfold before making sweeping statements. 

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Step towards UKMO from ECM, I'm afraid

 

3 minutes ago, Matty M said:

EC 96hrs looks somewhat better than the UKMO or GFS

Very hard to know what’s going on here then. Fwiw I’d say it’s better at this stage than ukmo but still very early in the run. Give it chance

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

Slightly improved angle from a cold perspective for the southeast of England as compared to this morning's EC run but still very much a similar trend and no shift back towards the easterly runs we saw over the last few days.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep collapse of the high over the UK at 120hrs from the ECM operational run, but its all looking very flabby out there I have to say, no real clear drivers of this pattern at this point...

Would't take a big adjustment for the block to stay firm near the UK on this run I feel.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

You have to laugh at that 120 chart-

So many ingredients there for a UK cold spell- the energy southern Greenland certainly not helping!

It's still a close call tho NW.not sure if this is resolved yet!!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It’s defini better than the 0Z chart. Happier with a stronger euro trough, that’s holding the Atlantic ridge up a bit more.

Yeah ,the arctic profile looks a little better as well in terms of heights, it doesn't look that mild at the surface at 144hrs still either.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep collapse of the high over the UK at 120hrs from the ECM operational run, but its all looking very flabby out there I have to say, no real clear drivers of this pattern at this point...

Would't take a big adjustment for the block to stay firm near the UK on this run I feel.

It’s not collapsing at 120 ??

its being held up by low heights over Iberia 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, kold weather said:

Yeah ,the arctic profile looks a little better as well in terms of heights, it doesn't look that mild at the surface at 144hrs still either.

A second bite of the cherry coming next few frames perhaps? 

 

ECM really blows up the low at the southern tip of Greenland between 96h and 120h

  • Sad 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, in the vale said:

This is a key post. The SSW commenced with a reversal at 10hpa around Xmas if I recall, with discussion at the time that, on average, it takes around 2 weeks for that to make it's way down a long, long way to be felt at the surface. This downwelling seems to have been quite a bit slower than expected. I think the models struggle with this transition period - starting data may not be easily parsed when dealing with conflicting obs at different atmospheric levels (strat, trop, surface) that are perhaps unrecognisable to the steady-state, normal conditions that models deal with - i.e. the transition period is going to throw up some strange anomalies, especially as the downwelling gets closer to the surface and more obs are factored in. ECM with it's higher vertical resolution may actually be more confused than any other model. Until the downwelling is complete - next week - and the models can 'recognise' an obs pattern that their physics can recognise as a start point, they are going to thrash around like a mackerel just off the hook.  I would not put much faith in any output beyond 68h. The big picture seems to remain unaffected by the transition - low to our South, high somewhere North - those keep us in the game. 

This was always going to be a slow response because it was a DSW not a normal SSW,it will happen but not until 3/4 FEB,research a DSW .

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...