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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just seen something on the GFS. Why does it stall the low east of Scotland at 84-110hrs. There is nothing to stop it . Interesting 

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Also worth noting that the lobe is starting to shift eastwards on the GFS by 216hrs, this is KEY to getting a good -ve NAO set-up down the line, if the PV sits where it is, there is pretty much no chance.

About to get stormy by 252hrs I think!

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6 minutes ago, Chris K said:

I get the feeling that the GFS may be being a tad over progressive here. There are still some disagreements between the main models of the depth and track of the LP systems and until these are resolved, there could still be changes ahead in the short term.

Whilst the fantastic coldageddon charts may have disappeared, the overall picture may still remain positive. ECM will be interesting later, to see if it sides more with UKMO or GFS. I may be interpreting the charts incorrectly, but in my eyes, the 12z GFS high that collapses towards Iberia would not need much change to head up NE across the UK and maybe somewhere favourable from there? God damn another UK high..hope not! 🤣

Look at the polar vortex over Greenland.

Can't have factored in the ssw??.

Unbelievable. A catastrophe if its a protracted snowy cold spell your after.

A day or two off from model watching me thinks.

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12z is a big downgrade for Eastern Europe, Balkans and Greece. 3 hours of snowy conditions and nothing else as there isn't any support for something more than this. These - 10 or - 16 don't provide any kind of precipitation as the cold travels through thousands of km of dry ground. 

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12 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Lets just remember 48 hours ago , ECM charts were being posted with BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM as a headline

Things can change quickly 

You've got to be realistic, the shortwaves are the spoilers ecm will follow the others! 

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8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Despite all the ramping with the 'booms etc, we seem to be back where we started by next weekend!

GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

-10 uppers and widespread snow showers and ice days from the west...pull the other one 😂

Edited by Dancerwithwings

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19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The broad pattern cannot see the micro ......but over a period of several weeks, it will be right on occasions. That’s why I remain totally confident that this is a blip. 

Totally aggre with this.  The macro picture hasn’t changed longer term and one aggressive low isn’t going to trump all the effects of the SSW going forward.  

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1 minute ago, joggs said:

Look at the polar vortex over Greenland.

Can't have factored in the ssw??.

Unbelievable. A catastrophe if its a protracted snowy cold spell your after.

A day or two off from model watching me thinks.

Don't worry that is just a transfer, its unfortunately required if you want to get a good northern block from the position we are in at 144hrs. Watch for heights to start to build close to Greenland from 240hrs onwards and hopefully shift the jet even further south.

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What an awful disappointing day....some of these minor details really have had major implications. Well done to those who spotted and showed concern. I didn't want to believe you but credit where it's due! 

 

Never again will I believe and easterly until it's a clean path to it.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Look at the polar vortex over Greenland.

Can't have factored in the ssw??.

Unbelievable. A catastrophe if its a protracted snowy cold spell your after.

A day or two off from model watching me thinks.

Why? Plenty of snow on that v cold NWly 

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The irony is we can see the vortex being further weakened in the coming days with some retreat of the Canada vortex but the feed of cold into the Euro.trough then becomes weaker and gets cut off.The Atlantic high then moves closer and any remaining cold is east of us.

It's a very strange turnaround as the ens suites have been so strong and consistent on a deep Euro trough being fed by the cold coming down through Scandinavia.

Again by day 6 the GFS is looking more mobile flattening the high whereas the UK model keeps some buckling of the Atlantic pattern retaining hope of a more favourable development later on.

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Just now, kold weather said:

Don't worry that is just a transfer, its unfortunately required if you want to get a good northern block from the position we are in at 144hrs. Watch for heights to start to build close to Greenland from 240hrs onwards and hopefully shift the jet even further south.

Well, i suppose 240+ charts might be nice to look at lol.

Hope your right about the transfer. Knowing our look,thats where it'll stay.

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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please?

I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars for the 500-1000 chart. Also the same times for the 850-1000. Slight differences but why the posts that have phrases like’game over’ and such? These do not help new folk understand what is happening.

I honestly cannot see that, in the time scale I mention, there is much that is markedly different on the two runs.

If you are commenting beyond T+120-144, and in this fairly volatile state of the northern atmosphere perhaps even near T+00 then you MUST compare like with like. It is way too far ahead to use the argument that the run has the most up to date data and therefore must be more accurate. It does not hold, believe me, sorry to be a bit dogmatic but 20+ years of forecasting makes me feel you may just bear with me over that.

Come on I posted this morning about the overall upper air signals, yes the run to run of the models may well vary but the cold is here for 2 weeks possibly longer. To be sure of what values in each of our back gardens or even more so will it snow/when/how much then be realistic. Models 2x or 4x daily will NOT be accurate for temperature before about T+72 and for ppn of whatever type before T+48 and sometimes not even T+12. If you can accept these restrictions life on here can be enjoyable and useful for learning for us all with no loss of enjoyment.

Shall we try this for 24 hours or so.

Good advice John, which I have followed since the first time you espoused it years ago. Although I fear for the majority it is falling on deaf ears...

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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Why? Plenty of snow on that v cold NWly 

Thats if it comes to fruition.

Look whats just happened.

Edited by joggs

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Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear...It's time to get the deckchairs out!🤣

image.thumb.png.7eca67a9d170cf5a1288cc3e430e13e5.png

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4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please?

I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars for the 500-1000 chart. Also the same times for the 850-1000. Slight differences but why the posts that have phrases like’game over’ and such? These do not help new folk understand what is happening.

I honestly cannot see that, in the time scale I mention, there is much that is markedly different on the two runs.

If you are commenting beyond T+120-144, and in this fairly volatile state of the northern atmosphere perhaps even near T+00 then you MUST compare like with like. It is way too far ahead to use the argument that the run has the most up to date data and therefore must be more accurate. It does not hold, believe me, sorry to be a bit dogmatic but 20+ years of forecasting makes me feel you may just bear with me over that.

Come on I posted this morning about the overall upper air signals, yes the run to run of the models may well vary but the cold is here for 2 weeks possibly longer. To be sure of what values in each of our back gardens or even more so will it snow/when/how much then be realistic. Models 2x or 4x daily will NOT be accurate for temperature before about T+72 and for ppn of whatever type before T+48 and sometimes not even T+12. If you can accept these restrictions life on here can be enjoyable and useful for learning for us all with no loss of enjoyment.

Shall we try this for 24 hours or so.

sounds like a plan - and with the current complex set up we have, I think I can agree with that - let's think short term for now and watch the next 24 - 36 hrs develop from there on the models

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GFS 12 z at 240 , couldn’t make it 

 

Cold to left of me , freezing to the right , here am I stuck in the middle of you

9CC69818-59E1-4C1A-97B0-B7158DC76318.png

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7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please?

I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars for the 500-1000 chart. Also the same times for the 850-1000. Slight differences but why the posts that have phrases like’game over’ and such? These do not help new folk understand what is happening.

I honestly cannot see that, in the time scale I mention, there is much that is markedly different on the two runs.

Shall we try this for 24 hours or so.

I think John people had convinced themselves that the ICON was wrong and the models would fall in line again with cold, so when the 12z GFS came out it was like a final shattering of that dream, hence the emotional outburst.

Its certainly no beast from the east, but the GFS is still very much on the cold side bar a short lived intrusion here and there in the south (which to be fair, the met office have mentioned) and very snowy for the north.

PS, mind you even the FI isn't great, setting up a UK trough which kills any cold air aloft, ah well!

Edited by kold weather

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As the seasonal models continue to forecast a strong rise in heights to our north west, the daily models continue to show the complete opposite 🤷‍♂️ 

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Don't usually post in here as my expertise in reading the models is limited to say the least! 

However, I feel that we are entering a period of great uncertainty, so how anyone is able to say with certainty that, THIS model or THAT model has been proven correct are asking to have egg on their faces! 

In my opinion, if the output can change at such short notice, then it can easily change back just as quickly, especially with easterlies down-welling from the stratosphere, nothing is certain! 

 

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6 minutes ago, joggs said:

Look at the polar vortex over Greenland.

Can't have factored in the ssw??.

Unbelievable. A catastrophe if its a protracted snowy cold spell your after.

A day or two off from model watching me thinks.

Only If you completely ignore the fact that models, when an active period of weather is shown have completely failed to actually verify at Day 7, let alone Day 10 for pretty much this entire winter.

If you wish to take anything seriously at that time away then that's your prerogative. 

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11 minutes ago, john mac said:

Just seen something on the GFS. Why does it stall the low east of Scotland at 84-110hrs. There is nothing to stop it . Interesting 

Exactly my thinking john, perhaps its picking up another signal they may revert to what we were seeing 2 days ago on the charts!! and that perhaps there is a chance the east / north east winds will come back in to play on 18z / 0z!!

Edited by wightwootton

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