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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Today 12z is going to be the equivalent of sitting down to watch the weather model Royal Rumble..!

Anyway ECM mean @144 backs the op- 😞

So are T120 we are totally in no mans land with a solution..

Edited by Steve Murr
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ECM 144 mean

EDM1-144.GIF?19-12

Not the best. I'll give it to the 12z before calling it though. 

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The EPS in the medium term (days 6-8) definitely trending backwards.  Looks a lot more troughy around the UK allied with losing any tenuous heights to the north.  Not great sadly but it's just one suite.

It’s also the ECM  the best model and two runs on the bounce we have a direction of travel. It’s not done but it’s gonna take a turn around.

 

this one change will have large knock on effects down the line the next 46 sayer is going to be different 

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Today 12z is going to be the equivalent of sitting down to watch the weather mode Royal Rumble..!

Anyway ECM mean @144 backs the op- 😞

So are T120 we are totally in no mans land with a solution..

Is that a thinly disguised apology for icon? 😉

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Too bad Doctor Who is not a member of this forum, then we could just sit back in total confidence.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

 

Looking back at a post of mine last night, I’d actually like to address something, where I said Darren Bett is a mildy. That was wrong of me, he’s a professional of his field, is also human being. So I’m not really sure why I said that and would absolutely like to take that back. Pretty annoyed with myself I’m truth!

 

Lol! 

That paragraph sounds like you've just been messaged by Darren himself asking you to retract what you said before he sues you 😂

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Today 12z is going to be the equivalent of sitting down to watch the weather mode Royal Rumble..!

Anyway ECM mean @144 backs the op- 😞

So are T120 we are totally in no mans land with a solution..

I hate to say it but I do think the direction of travel is pretty clear for all of us now.

Warning signs have been there with that shortwave edging closer and closer to Iceland every single run (which is why I analysed to death, that is why I did not relax yesterday!) along with the trough being slightly slower. I felt like a broken record and people complained but there was a good reason for it.

Its still possible we could get a victory but odds fobeeem to be getting worse. My gut tells me the 06z is going yo fall in line with the para/control GFS. Pray I'm wrong!

Edited by kold weather
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think we just lost another week ...........

Ha ha make that two and now we are looking at mid month February

not sure the Extended EPS averages and 46 dayer that has promised so much and delivered so little should be used as much

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think we just lost another week ...........

I worry too because the arctic looks pretty unfavourable on the ECM. I know the GFS goes for it, but given the downwelling happening we maybe about to lose some prime time.

Do you feel like it might just be one of those wintets where the vortex is just poorly located for us?

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4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Is that a thinly disguised apology for icon? 😉

Icon is not a great model the stats show that but past performance does not guarantee future returns 

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I hate to say it but I do think the direction of travel is pretty clear for all of us now.

Warning signs have been there with that shortwave edging closer and closer to Iceland every single run (which is why I analysed to death, that is why I did not relax yesterday!) along with the trough being slightly slower. I felt like a broken record and people complained but there was a good reason for it.

Its still possible we could get a victory but odds fobeeem to be getting worse. My gut tells me the 06z is going yo fall in line with the para/control GFS. Pray I'm wrong!

The heights to the north being further north is the reason there is no link up and the reason energy is allowed to remain

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So it appears that this morning we have the well regarded ECM model backing away from the cold solution at relatively short range, and we have the maybe even more well regarded UKMO model edging towards the colder solution at relatively short range. 

What a conundrum. 🤔

There's only one thing to do in these situations..... Lights off, back to sleep. 😴

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I am new to this forum, can someone tell me I heard somewhere ecm was updating to 4 runs a day I might be wrong. 

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Well at least it doesn’t look likely that D7 will verify!

25E7524B-836F-4E00-9BE1-D1CABBF2774B.thumb.png.2fccdba97b304fa1421d3306e561664b.png90B92E08-CFD7-4F4F-9BDD-1E4D5CBD0CB9.thumb.png.4071e8f9b25aa2ddb22cb4703e20b0dc.png

which makes you wonder where it it goes wrong initially.......

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Having viewed the spreads at day 5/6, I would give this another twelve hours ....... the fat lady may not quite have left the stage for end this week but she’s defo ripped up her contract whilst the promoter is scrambling on the floor with some sellotape ......

Yes i think as Steve posted earlier, the 12zs will be fascinating viewing..

Such a shame the EC did a u-turn after viewing the 12z UKMO/GFS yesterday..

It might u-turn again this evening..

Day 10 mean still looks cold with the euro low in place to our SE..

image.thumb.png.d9d22c9ae711deaa8b93de9655808774.png

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About a 3c uptick in the 850hpa temps on day 7 compared to 3 suites ago...ouch!

Looks like it goes wrong as early as 72hrs on the models. 

Just proves the models still have a ways to go.

Northwest, yeah still seems like troughing nearby us keeping winds NW, nothing mild in the horzion, looks average, maybe a little below still.

Edited by kold weather

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With it still being at 96-120 hours out, that is a long time in these types of scenarios. Watch out for a bounce back. I’ve seen an easterly disappear at 24 hours out and then suddenly re appear again. December 2005 easterly. 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i think as Steve posted earlier, the 12zs will be fascinating viewing..

Such a shame the EC did a u-turn after viewing the 12z UKMO/GFS yesterday..

It might u-turn again this evening..

Day 10 mean still looks cold with the euro low in place to our SE..

image.thumb.png.d9d22c9ae711deaa8b93de9655808774.png

I think it will be sunday morning it will turn around... just a hunch.

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Morning, safe to come in?

Didn`t want to see the EC do that again but at least we have the UKMO.... for now.

 

UN120-21.gif

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ECM huge backtrack as The Slug fights back.  Its a big swipe at such short timescale, for me it makes it poor as well as the others....because if it was so good how come such a climb down at such short range.?  Ah well.....we definitely ain’t there yet 

 

BFTP

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Think I must be missing something, the models look cold next week with a risk of snow..in that respect, nothing has changed!!!!!!!

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