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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Well forgive this old fella asking what all the fuss is about over the 12Z, but just what re the 12 V 06 out to 144h please? I’ve looked at the overall pattern of the 558 DM line and the isobars

Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening? Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are mea

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

144 UKMO a bit scrappy but the highs in the right place in the atlantic & at that point its all that matters

The 96-120 timeframes are upgrading & thats whats important

01D09586-08C3-4B03-87A0-3CF4E0F8798E.thumb.png.fde9c747cd9614106440c8ace26d59db.png

 

Yes Steve first hurdle jumped and looking good . Nerve racking stuff this is . You would think the T120 UKMO has got this now . Have you ever seen get it wrong at T120 ? 

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I think the GFS should make it, at least at first anyway...I hope?!

We have probably a wiggle room of 100-150 miles now though on that GFS run. not enough to be comfortable at this range sadly!

Yh its like rush hour but thankfully we just manage to squeeze through the gap but still a concern each run gets harder and harder as the gap narrows. I would love to sea Glosea take on this. It's gonna come down to the wire.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes Steve first hurdle jumped and looking good . Nerve racking stuff this is . You would think the T120 UKMO has got this now . Have you ever seen get it wrong at T120 ? 

Yes comfort zone is the 96, but 12z 96-120 tonight would make it 90% confidence

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1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

Yh its like rush hour but thankfully we just manage to squeeze through the gap but still a concern each run gets harder and harder as the gap narrows. I would love to sea Glosea take on this. It's gonna come down to the wire.

 

 

Tbh honest..it really is'nt..

The wire has already been cut!!!.

And its just both correct of align(infer direction)..

And the shout of how long the deep cold persists..

When she takes hold!!...

 

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

144 8.5/10 UKMO a bit scrappy but the highs in the right place in the atlantic & at that point its all that matters

The 96-120 timeframes are upgrading & thats whats important

01D09586-08C3-4B03-87A0-3CF4E0F8798E.thumb.png.fde9c747cd9614106440c8ace26d59db.png

 

All looks ok Steve to me at 144hrs on the UKMO, its not quite as textbook as some runs but all main players are in the right place. Looks to me like there is a little shortwave that comes from the east that should get shunted down towards us, several GFS runs on the ensembles have had likewise.

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Oh no GFS isn't going the right way now by 120hrs, Azores high starting to ridge in due to the Arctic high being too far north...

We now have ZERO wiggle room on the 00z GFS...None...any further east and this will bust.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

You really are massively over analysing everything..

Just don't like to see things moving eastwards, each run that LP has inched further east in the atlantic between 120-144hrs. Those tiny movements after 4-6 runs of that trend start to make a difference, surely you can see just how tight things are by 126hrs?

plus when you've been doing this for 15 years, you can get an eye for these little trends that start to sneak in.

Hopefully we get away with it on the 00z!

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Tbh honest..it really is'nt..

The wire has already been cut!!!.

And its just both correct of align(infer direction)..

And the shout of how long the deep cold persists..

When she takes hold!!...

 

I hope so because it was a close run thing. When you say the wire has been cut you referring to the high evolution. After feeling my first few flakes of Snow yesterday I want more. So much potential if we get that hight to cut off.

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2 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

I hope so because it was a close run thing. When you say the wire has been cut you referring to the high evolution. After feeling my first few flakes of Snow yesterday I want more. So much potential if we get that hight to cut off.

Way too close for comfort between 120-144hrs though for sure!

Our air at 150hrs is actually being sourced nearly totally by the Azores high apart from the very far east looking at the streamlines at 850hpa.

Still the overall pattern is still just about ok, should start to draw in that easterly (ish) flow at some point.

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US low is trending warmer each model run moving up the eastern seaboard, that may help it to avoid going past the south tip of Greenland. As to tiny features at surface wrecking large-scale upper patterns, don't think that's a valid process, the tiny features get some life from the upper pattern that develops come what may. If the GEM has found an easterly, almost count on it, last model to find one usually. I am hoping that some here will check their posts for words that are not standard English and translate for us because, as insightful as your ideas may be, I can't read some of them at all. 

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Lower level winds starting to be sourced from the Scandi high around 168hrs as the Scandi high just starts to exert more pressure.

NO room for error now, hopefully we can get west correction now.

GEM is super, UKMO is good, GFS is good, but delayed.

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The biggest thing for me this morning was the UKMO T120 and it’s held firm . 

Agreed, that's not normally the first one to come off the easterly train if something is wrong. UKMO 144hrs is fine as well, another variation of the theme.

174hrs and the upper high finally becomes dominant. Good easterly about to come in, just as Daniel said (boom charts ? )

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5 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

US low is trending warmer each model run moving up the eastern seaboard, that may help it to avoid going past the south tip of Greenland. As to tiny features at surface wrecking large-scale upper patterns, don't think that's a valid process, the tiny features get some life from the upper pattern that develops come what may. If the GEM has found an easterly, almost count on it, last model to find one usually. I am hoping that some here will check their posts for words that are not standard English and translate for us because, as insightful as your ideas may be, I can't read some of them at all. 

If thats a pop @me..

Elaborate- and i'll make explanations/corrections.

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