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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

The cold is never too far away, even on this run, and I expect this to be close to the worst-case scenario, a normal GFS over-reaction to a pattern change:

anim_kvx7.gif

Corrections west could keep it interesting as we await the next attack from the Canadian lobe?

This run is the worse case scenario. It's a nightmare. Even in FI I'm afraid that the main cold pool will be pushed east/southeast because of another NW ridge into us. And again it seems North Greece will have another snowfest. 

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Charts like this first one are a real kick in the proverbials for UK cold fans. Gets better later in the run though. Real monster trough there.

gfseu-0-174.png

gfseu-0-264 (2).png

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1 minute ago, Empire Of Snow said:

This run is the worse case scenario. It's a nightmare. Even in FI I'm afraid that the main cold pool will be pushed east/southeast because of another NW ridge into us. And again it seems North Greece will have another snowfest. 

Not necessarily. Feb 1991 started off with a cold pool over the Ukraine and headed directly westward. This is not over by a long shot. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Best to wait until it comes into euro 4 view. GFS precipitation charts are always overdoing the snow.

Totally agree mate

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2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

This run is the worse case scenario. It's a nightmare. Even in FI I'm afraid that the main cold pool will be pushed east/southeast because of another NW ridge into us. And again it seems North Greece will have another snowfest. 

FAr from the worst case scenario, still plenty of chances of snow events, though the locations that are most favoured has rather flipped round!

Here comes the kicker low at 264hrs by the way, heights will rise soon afterwards near Greenland, lets hope its enough!

PS, as hard as it will be to watch, once the jet drops we WANT Euorpe to be as cold as possible as that's the air we will be importing, it would reduce marginality.

Edited by kold weather
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OK GFS has trended towards EC , no denying that..

However, FI looks very PM dominated and plenty of snow options on the table..

image.thumb.png.e8dff65d4bdae99e6cf1df5455293cb0.png

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There’s nothing positive to post about this mornings runs. Major backtrack in progress, we’ve been 2012’ved. 

I’d fully expect the UKMO to drop the Easterly on the 12z runs now too. Massive ensemble spread so we *could* see it return but quite frankly that’s looking incredibly unlikely. 

Cold this week with snow chances for many but the end of the week unlikely to be offering anything significant. Back to looking at day 10+ I suppose

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A real Arctic High on this run so that is a tell-tale sign of downwelling and we should expect a very cold and snowy Feb if this trend maintains...

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.7918a70b2cde157f32b7202e102a83f8.png

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10 minutes ago, Chris K said:

If a block unfavourably sets up, maybe. However it gets slightly bemusing when just because this time round it could "fail", suddenly 3 weeks worth of weather is decided...I don't think so. Overall theme is still positive of a euro trough. Everything just needs to go right for the UK to get the amazing cold spells...which is difficult!

Normally I would agree but the shift is enough east to Lose the low heights over Europe 

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

There’s nothing positive to post about this mornings runs. Major backtrack in progress, we’ve been 2012’ved. 

I’d fully expect the UKMO to drop the Easterly on the 12z runs now too. Massive ensemble spread so we *could* see it return but quite frankly that’s looking incredibly unlikely. 

Cold this week with snow chances for many but the end of the week unlikely to be offering anything significant. Back to looking at day 10+ I suppose

Nothing positive ? Plenty of snow chances for most over the next 10 days or so

FBC5E697-EDA7-4B4B-959B-09CF01677009.png

9CED752D-62A3-403F-BD3B-9E3B47D0682C.png

A3C5C26C-BBF1-44D6-950B-8AFB924933C9.png

4EC596F5-015D-4502-881D-BD69F55C94DF.png

111E2820-C49D-43FE-8B42-762773CD352D.png

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Interesting to see the stages of grief today on these forums!

Actually looking VERY good from 216hrs onwards globally in terms of the broad blocks, the PV lobe stretches out and in its place your going to get high pressure forming and that will shuff the jet southwards and open up slider/full blown LP set-ups that offer snow chances.

 

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Nothing positive ? Plenty of snow chances for most over the next 10 days or so

FBC5E697-EDA7-4B4B-959B-09CF01677009.png

9CED752D-62A3-403F-BD3B-9E3B47D0682C.png

A3C5C26C-BBF1-44D6-950B-8AFB924933C9.png

4EC596F5-015D-4502-881D-BD69F55C94DF.png

111E2820-C49D-43FE-8B42-762773CD352D.png

I was referring to the Easterly.. did you read the 1st line of my post & then decide to reply before reading the rest?

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Just now, karyo said:

So you prefer Europe to be warm? Where will the cold come from to us?

I know what your saying but how many times have we seen this in the last few years . As in Greece frozen and most of euro land and we’re left with zilch ? 

Day 7 and 8 on gfs 6z very cold in Europe- 80C96A2B-7EC5-492E-9DE6-84CDCFA1864E.thumb.png.7bc89b5b5499d2974da711db36cb40de.pngD2F4B0F0-A300-4CAB-AEFD-B3414E84E38D.thumb.png.43e807088903b1eb9c3b8c9ce3aa4261.png

Day 7 and 8 on the ECM 00z no cold air to be seen . Just so frustrating 🤮ED13E3FE-2AAE-4451-9490-BD51B07860DD.thumb.png.d59a8c5082e2c39577f3fb8ca264b746.pngBC4668B6-DF43-44B0-AAB7-559BE74A670C.thumb.png.c81fab05f6eaa1f0b531cd742bbc3e02.png

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21 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What amazes me is how the strat warming hasn't worked out. I think we should now accept that this has been a fail with no proper heights to our North. Some might remember me say this time and time again over the last week. You need proper heights to our North. Almost everyone has to backtrack on this one Inc the Meto and beeb etc. We laugh about the ceefax/teletext days of the 80.......has weather forecasting got any better since though?!

It does make you wonder in a non zonal set up, what is the point of model output in the t+120 timeframe, especially for these small Islands.  

If the pattern at t+96 pushes East by 50 miles, by the time we get to t+168 that could be 500 miles and all the cold shifts into the continent.

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Leading to scenarios akin to this:

gfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.71e8af1e02591c815b45b3745d2d091a.png

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles for this Thursday: 2 days ago when I checked, it was about 80/20 in favour of some sort of easterly/northerly. This morning is about 40/60. That is a flip. Rather embarrassing for me as I've been staking my forecast on the consistency of these ensembles for days!

What I think will happen now, what with the UKMO and GFS so different and with the easterly far from dead in the ensembles, is that we are likely to get a fudge. The middle ground will be a shorter easterly followed by a quick sinker. That looks most reasonable to me. It's rare at such short range for either model to be completely wrong. And maybe that would still allow a snow event later next week. But the weather will do what it wants, when it wants, and just occasionally make fools out of us. 

Nicely Balanced take on things. I agree. Commendable 

Edited by snowfish1
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image.thumb.png.b6503d0b6329eb6e8412fb2befe0391d.png

Patience grasshoppes!! Its not like we been waiting since November!!

I jest of course, but the outllok , bar the odd day or two, looks anything but mild..

🙂

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

A real Arctic High on this run so that is a tell-tale sign of downwelling and we should expect a very cold and snowy Feb if this trend maintains...

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.7918a70b2cde157f32b7202e102a83f8.png

Over 20 years on this forum my mind is full of Arctic highs not delivering. For me its simple Greenland or Scandinavian high for proper cold

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Ending beautifully-

image.thumb.png.3ed600dc4577ed378096b6dabcb582d2.png

While we have the euro low we are in the game- 

OK this pain in the rear storm over the states has delayed the progression, i still think we will get our jackpot..

Textbook -ve NAO. The models never really got onboard with this set-up and went the more risky Scandi high progression for this cold spell.

Anyway, nothing positive, there are at least 3-4 snow events to talk about. Its no 00z GFS run (which lets not joke, was one of the best runs EVER, didn't matter what the 06z did it was going to be a downgrade comared to that.

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If your post is missing or dissapears it's because it's off topic and does not belong in here, Some great Model watching to be had, So let's not jump the gun.

Thanks.

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know what your saying but how many times have we seen this in the last few years . As in Greece frozen and most of euro land and we’re left with zilch ? 

Day 7 and 8 on gfs 6z very cold in Europe- 80C96A2B-7EC5-492E-9DE6-84CDCFA1864E.thumb.png.7bc89b5b5499d2974da711db36cb40de.pngD2F4B0F0-A300-4CAB-AEFD-B3414E84E38D.thumb.png.43e807088903b1eb9c3b8c9ce3aa4261.png

Day 7 and 8 on the ECM 00z no cold air to be seen . Just so frustrating 🤮ED13E3FE-2AAE-4451-9490-BD51B07860DD.thumb.png.d59a8c5082e2c39577f3fb8ca264b746.pngBC4668B6-DF43-44B0-AAB7-559BE74A670C.thumb.png.c81fab05f6eaa1f0b531cd742bbc3e02.png

Yes, it is disheartening when we miss out but it also gives us a chance to tap into the cold with a slight change in the wind direction, especially when central Europe gets in the freezer.

 

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