Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

ICON 6z looking much better T114, T120 from 0z for comparison.

image.thumb.jpg.5aa863ffd8852545424831ebea315fbd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a32ab669ad618db5c2b276bf0bfb2a20.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Icon much improved 

oh the drama 

couldnt make it up

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The failure of low euro heights sustaining is the issue but that’s a consequence of other things ..... fwiw, the extended eps have never been supportive of high slp to our nw .......the cold spell has always been reliant on low euro heights and probable wedges to keep the jet south ........now there’s change on the horizon ....... the extended eps now see a decent probability of high slp in the griceland area post day 11/12 ...... it’s a step change and gives me some confidence that should we continue to fall the wrong side of things for the next ten days that we will have a real ally for proper cold come the turn of the month .......

The thing is the wedges have only really rang true this week into tue next week but apart from that they've generally not helped, and the time period they were meant to have biggest effect hasn't actually got hear yet, so more of a prediction more than a reality, one which has changed now so nothing is a given and the high pressure to our NW in 10 days could well be scuppered by remnants of the vortex left over there so think for me I'm refraining from forecasting anything because they very rarely go the way you think 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big improvement for sure on the 06z ICON, still got abit of a shortwave issue along up the north sea at 114hrs but its something to work with for sure...

Just when you accept defeat, the model throws you a drama bone!

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don’t worry everyone gfs has this cold and wintery mid week then very cold later next week except up upgrades ..

3EAC46D3-8E52-4D2F-A98A-2BF2F90FE4EB.png

FF7C180D-AD70-434C-807A-DD8A27962B1F.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW I still think ICON 06z wouldn't make it, still a decent amount of energy trailing up the north sea on this run and the Arctic high is starting to withdraw at 120hrs, plus the shortwave riding over the top of the Azores high, but it IS much better, no denying that.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DE Bilt 00z shows considerable uncertainty after the 25th albeit only a few runs get down towards -10

ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.thumb.png.e3f85432217d0fc2941ec241e5fe9b97.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well that was a big disappointment. Guess GFS P was right all along when it was showing those flat charts a few days ago.

More often than not, GFS catches up with ecmwf. It's rarely the other way round.

Back to wet and windy I guess

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Skyraker said:

Only bright side about the ECM op this morning (and ICON) is it has given me chance to update my schadenfreude (ignore) list.

I think I will go enjoy my Saturday and then come back for the 12z and see where we're at then.

Icon drifts to the middle ground and more in line with the ec spreads ......  so much better than it consolidating on the flatter solution ....incidentally, I hope you have a crap day between noon and two thirty ..........

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You can’t ignore any model output, but it’s a brave person that bets against a day 4 meto chart. Now just watch gfs go pear shaped!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon drifts to the middle ground and more in line with the ec spreads ......  so much better than it consolidating on the flatter solution ....incidentally, I hope you have a crap day between noon and two thirty ..........

That's a given Blue, she wants to go shopping.

*edit 1 hour later* I just got this.

Edited by Skyraker
  • Like 1
  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't think I've ever seen so much commentary on the 0z suite.  This is turning into a real roller coaster ride.  For me, the added significant uncertainty came on yesterday's 12z ECM ensembles, and it's still here this morning!  

Going to be another fascinating day, and I think could genuinely go either way.  Next GFS about to roll...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just had a look through the extended ECM ensembles, there are indeed some outrageous runs in that lot, so something to just keep an eye on down the line hopefully and that the signal remains in place and doesn't get shafted again.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think we had a situation last winter where we had model disagreement down to T72 ........ and the result was a blend of the modelling because it did tend closer together T90/T84....if that’s the case then will probably be messy and cold (which will be white with altitude and latitude) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The mean at T300 less reliable though ............ the trough remains deep 

Irrespective there is no getting away from the fact that this morning's ecm is a thing of beauty

  • Like 6
  • Sad 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, knocker said:

Irrespective there is no getting away from the fact that this morning's ecm is a thing of beauty

why is it a thing of beauty?

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Nick is this due to the handling of the storm? Normally they prefer the EC in those cases 

It’s more in relation to the next Pacific shortwave this will run east ne across the Plains and effect the PV lobe over ne Canada also in turn the movement of the low sw of Iceland .

 

Edited by nick sussex
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

why is it a thing of beauty?

Well anything that shies away from a very cold scenario (a la gfs) is uplifting

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets see how the day pans out before making sweeping statements like that 🙂

I just think we are clutching onto straws here, almost all models were pointing in one direction until yesterday and today ECMWF has thrown these charts at us. Also looking at GFS ensembles, there are a lot more mild runs compared to yesterday, and some are going towards +10C ground temperatures. Yes it could just be a wobble, but I think its worth keeping our feet on the ground until we have at least some sort of agreement between the models. 

And as mentioned before, more often than not it's ECMWF that nails it, especially under 144h. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, edinburgh_1992 said:

I just think we are clutching onto straws here, almost all models were pointing in one direction until yesterday and today ECMWF has thrown these charts at us. Also looking at GFS ensembles, there are a lot more mild runs compared to yesterday, and some are going towards +10C ground temperatures. Yes it could just be a wobble, but I think its worth keeping our feet on the ground until we have at least some sort of agreement between the models. 

And as mentioned before, more often than not it's ECMWF that nails it, especially under 144h. 

I'm not sure we are clutching at straws TBH, there is enough wriggle room from where i am sat, but i take your point.

🙂

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×