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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Quick question , when was the last year we had a blocking anticyclone to our north east in January that lasted a reasonable length of time?  I can't remember one!

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Yes ok the extended outlook seems to have hit a wobble but let’s not forget next week will be cold with an active weather front crossing on Tuesday so think there’s plenty to look forward to next week

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1 minute ago, snowspotter said:

Quick question , when was the last year we had a blocking anticyclone to our north east in January that lasted a reasonable length of time?  I can't remember one!

2013?

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Over years of model watching I’ve noticed that height rises to our north west are always very poorly modelled. I’ve no idea why. Lost count of the times that a predicted Greenland/Iceland high has come to nothing.

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What's the point of seasonal models predicting cold and HLB when at the end of the day its what happens about 3 or 4 days away over the pond if we are going to get this very cold weather. 

The meto mentioned a couple or so days ago  that this storm over in. USA is going to cause lots of headaches for the models so I wouldn't be saying any model had this correct.. Yet

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3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Nick, is it possible that the ECM was struggling with the emergence of that arctic high and hence giving us the stellar runs of a couple of days ago, and that the more sober runs of late are down to it starting to come to terms with it?

Possibly could be, I think across all the models the modelling of the arctic high over eastern Greenland may be causing some low confidence in this area recently, not only because of lack of data in that area but also how well the vertical resolution picks up the possible strat-trop coupling that is perhaps causing the high.

00z EC mslp spreads show fairly large spread around the low pressure incursion to the N and NW next Friday at least.

ps2png-gorax-green-005-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1ad515c21ca67e14-WxU4OQ.thumb.png.a2d684773f745c4ebb4e6f6be0aab774.png

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4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Yes ok the extended outlook seems to have hit a wobble but let’s not forget next week will be cold with an active weather front crossing on Tuesday so think there’s plenty to look forward to next week

The extended is fine ..... it’s the mid term that’s gone TU 

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Reading the thread leads me to think it's not happening....but wait let's have a gander myself I thought. 

A fluid unusual set up being modelled all over the shop. Cold with chances of snow growing as the emergence of short term Scandi heights is figured out as the GEFS Panel shows

UW144-7.GIF

Screenshot_20190119-090249_Chrome.jpg

gem-0-144.png

gensnh-21-1-240.png

gfs-1-192.png

Edited by winterof79
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4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

2013?

Just looked at archive don't remember it being particularly impressive.  I was thinking for a real proper one of a week or so you probably need to go back 25 years plus

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It seems we are having quite a wobble with the models

Gone is the beast from the east or the cold spell which brought back the memories of yesteryear

Now depending on which models you are looking at GFS/UKMO still show a decent cold spell but not what it showed a few days ago 

ECM is pretty much worse with just a tap and you will miss it 

However there is still time till it's a done deal is it not ?

Give it to this weekend before making a decision if it's get better or worse the weather will do what it wants 

End of story

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also, the suggestion that the n American east coast trough is going to scupper our cold is not borne out by the general ens modelling which has consistency proved a trough there and over Europe ...... there are no ‘hard and fast rules’ on this .....fwiw, I think that this deep trough upstream will assist in generating the greeny ridge we seek ........

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles for this Thursday: 2 days ago when I checked, it was about 80/20 in favour of some sort of easterly/northerly. This morning is about 40/60. That is a flip. Rather embarrassing for me as I've been staking my forecast on the consistency of these ensembles for days!

What I think will happen now, what with the UKMO and GFS so different and with the easterly far from dead in the ensembles, is that we are likely to get a fudge. The middle ground will be a shorter easterly followed by a quick sinker. That looks most reasonable to me. It's rare at such short range for either model to be completely wrong. And maybe that would still allow a snow event later next week. But the weather will do what it wants, when it wants, and just occasionally make fools out of us. 

I've gotta say that probably is the most reasonable solution but who knows, as you say it will do whatever it wants.

Anyway onto looking at the end of Janaury for hints, and still obviously keep one eye just in case it does flip back on later this week, but I think the main thrust has to be on the possible Tuesday snowfall, any NW over the weekend and deeper beyond the possible ridging of the Azores high into Greenland, hopefully coming off this time, whilst the lower strat profile is still good.

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The 00z GEFS pretty much obliterate the trop vortex in the 10-15 day range with a strong signal for a "greenie"

 

Maybe no jam tomorrow,but maybe some next month?

 

 

gensnh-21-5-360.png

gensnh-21-1-360.png

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ICON 6z is coming out at the moment and so far trough dropping more of a SSE direction compared to a ESE direction.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

also, the suggestion that the n American east coast trough is going to scupper our cold is not borne out by the general ens modelling which has consistency proved a trough there and over Europe ...... there are no ‘hard and fast rules’ on this .....fwiw, I think that this deep trough upstream will assist in generating the greeny ridge we seek ........

Yeah, afterall a textbook -ve NAO should have in theory a cold plunge into the states and also into W.Europe. Been a while since we've had a textbook one, quite a few scandi highs, but not many full bodied Greenies, last one I can really think of that had any staying power maybe Dec 2010?

My only concern with that is we could end up with a UK upper trough if the pattern sets up too far NW, which whilst obviously not a disaster does mean we are on borrowed time for any decent deep cold aloft, but that's tomorrows worry!

Edited by kold weather
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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A crumb of hope. 

The ECM was discarded from the short term diagnostic discussion for the west USA for the period upto the 22 January .

The preferred solution was a combination of this mornings UKMO/GFS and NAM.

How much that impacts events later still uncertain . 

Nick is this due to the handling of the storm? Normally they prefer the EC in those cases 

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4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ICON 6z is coming out at the moment and so far trough dropping more of a southerly direction compared to a SE direction.

Hmmmm...upper high a little stronger to our north as well so far, I...must...not...

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

also, the suggestion that the n American east coast trough is going to scupper our cold is not borne out by the general ens modelling which has consistency proved a trough there and over Europe ...... there are no ‘hard and fast rules’ on this .....fwiw, I think that this deep trough upstream will assist in generating the greeny ridge we seek ........

Correct blue but by then the cross Polar flow has been snipped by renewed Alaskan ridging into the Arctic and the trough much weaker.which suggests an adjustment back after the original impact

index.thumb.png.5b8fdab5117411014392f17641abc385.png

 

Edited by knocker
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON looks much better 6z..

image.thumb.png.b2bff8e7cc4e97e63199aad00ed4abc7.png

Baby steps come on ICON thats a good model... Now follow your big brothers.. Like we all have been warning you, stop going off on a tangent! 

 

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Correct blue but by then the cross Polar flow has been snipped by renewed Alaskan ridging into the Arctic and the trough much weaker.which suggest an adjustment back after the original impact

index.thumb.png.5b8fdab5117411014392f17641abc385.png

 

The mean at T300 less reliable though ............ the trough remains deep 

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