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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 No just telling it like it is ! I don’t do spin . Dads Army you know I’m far too young to have seen that ! I wish ! 😎

I know Nick. I always enjoy the reasoning you put into your posts and you are right to point out the pitfalls that could scupper things. It's just that most of your recent posts did seemed to fit into the 'we,re all doomed' category. Lol

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Everybody is so obsessed about 7-10 days away all the time, yes I’d like to no how cold and will it snow too but nobody or no model will have a clue exactly how cold or snowy that far out so it really dosnt matter if it’s slightly better or slightly worse than the last run. We all no this but sometimes reading stuff in here is as if we think it’s nailed regardless.

people who come on here that really haven’t a clue and are just trying to learn must be very confused indeed from one to another 

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UKMO, is it prepping itself to send a ridge up to join the HP party?

 

UN144-21.gif

Edited by Stuie W
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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ec loses the plot at day 8 in the atlantic

no point in looking at it after day 7

if it’s anywhere near right then the eps and other ec ens tools are a complete waste of time and have been for weeks .......(chuck in all other global forecasting tools ) 

the noon run is important to see what it does at days 7/8 with the next train out of the Canadian vortex station ..... I woud have expected it to follow closer to icon 

that T300 eps mean from yesterday is a little more marked a day later at T276

F498DC1F-BD5F-44A2-A0E9-D69AE0B6B4AC.thumb.jpeg.4c631a0ce54a3643dc25da19f3e1f631.jpeg

I’m noticing a trend today for the diving systems to back further west as week 2 progresses

the larger feature (as currently modelled) around day 11/12) could well end up dropping down the western side of the uk and not introduce a ‘warm sector’ at all to much of the UK 

 

Yes that is looking quite important vis sustainability of the Atlantic ridge.The FV3 take on this this morning

fv3p_z500a_nhem_35.thumb.png.8c022287b50033f9919c02f9189e808d.pngfv3p_z500a_nhem_46.thumb.png.fec9255678e77a339c836654627f1687.png

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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS 00z para also an absolute snorter !!

Its cold pretty much all the way through ..a snapshot in FI..(a very snowy Fi i might add)

image.thumb.png.e96327e156bca933aca146a729d298fd.png

Very very nice.

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32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 No just telling it like it is ! I don’t do spin . Dads Army you know I’m far too young to have seen that ! I wish ! 😎

And long may it continue! I won't pretend I understand the dynamics of your analyses of upstream patterns but I accept them. 

I like your reasoned postings a lot more than so many of the hyperbolic types that infest this place in the Winter and will seek them out on my visits here. Obviously there are other superb posters here as well mind. 🙂

If a person took at face value the number of day 6 etc. changes to / continuations of cold spells that are posted here and those events happened, the Winter of 1963 wouldn't stand a chance! ;)

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20 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

UKMO, is it prepping itself to send a ridge up to join the HP party?

 

UN144-21.gif

I hope you’re right as that would dramatically change the way forward 

Edited by Ali1977
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00Z for Day 7:image.thumb.png.19066ad629f096567cc443686ea2868d.png It's getting closer!:cold:

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks like a cold outlier to me Ali

70F48AAA-DDB1-4569-9809-38F32833D06D.thumb.png.46263a20fadb4e947f4bea73e42445a1.png

It's not that different from previous day's where the mean was around -3 to -8 towards the end.

I did look at that final frame of ECM this morning and thought it was one for @nicksussex! A threading the eye of the needle easterly with lots of shortwaves!

Looking at the models this morning it's still clear that looking for detail past seven days is futile. ECM and GEFS means still showing averages around -5 from around the 19th with a bit more scatter than yesterday, admittedly, but signals are all still there, and certainly not worth worrying about an uptick in ensemble means at the 14 day range; we're not even in the colder pattern yet!

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Nice little T120 upgrade from the ICON 06z

More chance of a back edge snow event by 108-114

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice little T120 upgrade from the ICON 06z

More chance of a back edge snow event by 108-114

Yup and looks more like ukmo at 120 hours if not better!!low looks like.sliding aswell!!

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Increasing spread for the mslp over NW Europe, far N and NW Atlantic towards the end of 00z EC deterministic, which suggests low confidence in this area past day 7. 

7495F9A5-883A-4AA2-A18F-FF061A5E8AC4.thumb.png.2b1755684faac982b80975de52b3833b.pngF1E913AD-F9F5-4408-8FEF-06F4E8C39640.thumb.png.c9bbc44e6abecb08c6b0bad6b69e8096.png60AE0F6B-A546-4203-9C6F-161E6390655F.thumb.png.be90893d298b80cccdf1493f5f457c22.png

The differences between 00z EC and GFS ops in mslp and more reliable z500 flow configuration quite stark in this area next weekend. So a lot to be resolved here and not worth looking in too much depth and getting hung up on details past end of week.

Edited by Nick F
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4 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

It's not that different from previous day's where the mean was around -3 to -8 towards the end.

I did look at that final frame of ECM this morning and thought it was one for @nicksussex! A threading the eye of the needle easterly with lots of shortwaves!

Looking at the models this morning it's still clear that looking for detail past seven days is futile. ECM and GEFS means still showing averages around -5 from around the 19th with a bit more scatter than yesterday, admittedly, but signals are all still there, and certainly not worth worrying about an uptick in ensemble means at the 14 day range; we're not even in the colder pattern yet!

Trust me, I’ve been studying the ens religiously 4 times a day since November! This mornings short ens are a disappointment on the past couple of days, but nothing to be worried about yet. The ext ens will show more detail later.

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41 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ec loses the plot at day 8 in the atlantic

no point in looking at it after day 7

if it’s anywhere near right then the eps and other ec ens tools are a complete waste of time and have been for weeks .......(chuck in all other global forecasting tools ) 

 

I know it's a turn of phrase, and this is not targeted at you (some posters seem to believe it!) but models don't "lose the plot"; they predict outcomes based on imperfect input and run it against hundreds of thousands of equations. The fact that the ECM produces a particular outcome for a given input is not unexpected and that is why we have ensembles with slightly tweaked input.

Of course, as you correctly say, it's not worth focusing on the single run; as we progress further from the initiation date, the greater the level of chaos becomes, especially in situations where we have large scale background drivers about which we have limited knowledge and information. 

Surprised nobody has mentioned Shannon Entropy for a while, but it seems to me that there is greater uncertainty (chaos) right now than there would be in a more familiar setup.

My focus is still on ensemble means and background drivers for the next few days. I think 21st is the date to watch for the colder pattern, but don't expect any reliable synoptic SLP detail until at least 4-5 days before....

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Sorry guys, coming on board yesterday ruined everything!! 

This mornings EPS certainly a step away from High Lat blocking, ideally we’d want the Atlantic block much further East. 

9095C01B-BB4C-4BD8-A05A-9C1B5F5A6365.thumb.png.7c26a8d66662255f2410e10e2697b6ac.png

That is a strong signal for a European trough however so mild it wont be, below average for the foreseeable with snow risks from slider lows (primarily in the North) 

As Nick alluded to above, a lot of spread across NW Europe so little point in getting too hooked on what models show post day 5 

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The 00z ECM mean in the extended range doesn't get the daytime high much above 3c on the London graph

ba1b5ea5-fa3e-4133-bc0b-564003cb55fd.thumb.png.cf825d3f652fc7d87c00fd131e29435d.png

The ENS mean shows 2cm of snow in the extended range on the London graph

45516e16-b3c0-44b1-be8b-3143526cc5c9.thumb.png.d3a0080111488d562449dfa17a668097.png

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Sorry guys, coming on board yesterday ruined everything!! 

This mornings EPS certainly a step away from High Lat blocking, ideally we’d want the Atlantic block much further East. 

9095C01B-BB4C-4BD8-A05A-9C1B5F5A6365.thumb.png.7c26a8d66662255f2410e10e2697b6ac.png

That is a strong signal for a European trough however so mild it wont be, below average for the foreseeable with snow risks from slider lows (primarily in the North) 

As Nick alluded to above, a lot of spread across NW Europe so little point in getting too hooked on what models show post day 5 

A euro trough and higher than average pressure to our NW. not sure what’s not to like? It’s not going to be record breaking cold but if the lows continually slide we could be looking at some record snow falls! I’d rather have 0c and snow than -5c and dry.

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32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

To those worrying about an uptick in uppers at any point - once into a cold troughy spell, we will generally have weather systems attempting to push the trough away or join the broad trough - either way, uppers would be expected to rise somewhat - that wouldn’t necessarily translate to higher surface temps and could be seen to be representative of moisture injection required to boost snowfall ??

I think the output is erring towards us being under a flabby low system mixing with embedded cold air to start this cold spell. Think it happened in 2009 where streamers came off the Irish Sea up here as winds alternated in direction.

Screenshot_20190112-094701_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190112-094648_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190112-094636_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190112-094721_Chrome.jpg

February 2009 loads of snow

Screenshot_20190112-095621_Chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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17 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

I know it's a turn of phrase, and this is not targeted at you (some posters seem to believe it!) but models don't "lose the plot"; they predict outcomes based on imperfect input and run it against hundreds of thousands of equations. The fact that the ECM produces a particular outcome for a given input is not unexpected and that is why we have ensembles with slightly tweaked input.

Of course, as you correctly say, it's not worth focusing on the single run; as we progress further from the initiation date, the greater the level of chaos becomes, especially in situations where we have large scale background drivers about which we have limited knowledge and information. 

Surprised nobody has mentioned Shannon Entropy for a while, but it seems to me that there is greater uncertainty (chaos) right now than there would be in a more familiar setup.

My focus is still on ensemble means and background drivers for the next few days. I think 21st is the date to watch for the colder pattern, but don't expect any reliable synoptic SLP detail until at least 4-5 days before....

‘Loses the plot ‘ = goes against all known model guidance outside of its reliable period (both current and over previous days) rather than shows something we aren’t keen to see (as is sometimes posted on here )

i stand by my original post white fox  ......

Edited by bluearmy
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