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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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High risk high reward run this from the GFS, I think this could be one of those spells where some people hit the jackpot and some get the short straw, at least to begin with.

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Looking at t192 to 222 on GFS.....if we don’t see a trough plunging SSE over us and a rather pronounced Atlantic ridge....then the GFS will be drunk

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

All going well at T+114. Looks like Guy's hopes for the HP not to build will not be met...😁

image.thumb.png.dd1c7146117bbd4da17e5288c0be73da.png

The 19th next sat looks good too. Edit.dont what happend supposed to comment on your stonker in coming

Edited by Minnizi
Comment on wrong post

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7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

High risk high reward run this from the GFS, I think this could be one of those spells where some people hit the jackpot and some get the short straw, at least to begin with.

Personally I'd prefer the 6z solution with the Canadian PV lobe being 'drained' down towards us, as it then can interact with any subsequent incursion from the opposite side. The low the 12z spawns which trundles on disconnected doesn't really help in any constructive manner until it finds itself in the same position as the 06z system does at 252h. It's another option though.

Edited by ukpaul

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The low over the uk wont be up to much, upper too high,initially anyway, what is intersting is the low heading out of the States, great alignment to send the ridge north towards greenland.

GFSOPEU12_231_1.png

Edited by KTtom

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Some very heavy and prolonged snow showers day 11 onwards on this evenings GFS...

Pretty much anywhere but esp the east, just look at those isobars!

image.thumb.png.909b356dedfac2c2823decbf0820901f.png

image.thumb.png.9b23131f6c30685d7dd5ab8875f1cbc1.png

 

Bit marginal for Kent Coastal regions.

In all seriousness, quite epic output today. At this range I would expect a couple of marginal upgrades as the detail firms up.

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2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Great 12zs so far.

Those who keep moaning - It is all 10 / 12 days a way, you are incorrect.

We no have snow opportunities appearing from +144 onwards. 

I'm not sure we'll see any comment from the experts over the weekend on the BBC forecasts. If the likes of Paul Hudson mentioned something tonight on Look North I'd be astonished. That should tell you all you need to know in forecast confidence >144, especially without cross model agreement. Tis the holy trinity of forecasting. 

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Gfs looks a tad dodgy as low res kicks in day 10/11 ..... the trough drops a long way very quickly from Iceland ...... again we should see the refined version via the para .....

be interesting to see what the ec op does wrt the sliders .....the first one hardly makes a splash in the e atantic now as it traverses the ridge and most of you probably haven’t noticed is disappear from the modelling 

will ec begin to correct numbers two and three further west. Yesterday’s op was a little over zealous in that regard with the swing back this morning - be good to see if a middle ground emerges later this evening 

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While we're at it, another medium-term chart with loads of potential.

Caveat - it is the GEM and it is day 10 but fits it with ensemble guidance.

image.thumb.png.5c3025db1a637329a9c9608400df52e6.png

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Is it just me? Or are others getting excited about the upcoming 12Z too? It's like the 15 minutes just before kick-off, at White Hart Lane!:unsure2:

The way things are going Pete it will be darned sight more than 15 minutes wait until the mighty Spurs return to WHL. It is like the cold weather waiting to arrive as well as Brexit. On a serious note hopefully it is all firming up now certainly if the O6z is anything to go by & as Steve & GP appear to be on board it looks very promising. I feel privileged to read some of the posts on here from people who have a love of weather and are prepared to give of their time to inform and educate the less knowledgeable such as myself. Many thanks.

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1 minute ago, claret047 said:

The way things are going Pete it will be darned sight more than 15 minutes wait until the mighty Spurs return to WHL. It is like the cold weather waiting to arrive as well as Brexit. On a serious note hopefully it is all firming up now certainly if the O6z is anything to go by & as Steve & GP appear to be on board it looks very promising. I feel privileged to read some of the posts on here from people who have a love of weather and are prepared to give of their time to inform and educate the less knowledgeable such as myself. Many thanks.

The short-range models seem to be having problems with the signals the longer-term ones are getting a hold of: they're still struggling with HLB...they'll get there. I hope!

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And, it all looks to be playing out in deep mid-winter. An ever increasing colder output is being firmed up on now. Still outside the reliable, but looking good for cold weather/snow aficionado's.

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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some very heavy and prolonged snow showers day 11 onwards on this evenings GFS...

Pretty much anywhere but esp the east, just look at those isobars!

image.thumb.png.909b356dedfac2c2823decbf0820901f.png

image.thumb.png.9b23131f6c30685d7dd5ab8875f1cbc1.png

 

Just shows how the cold charts tend to crop up out of the blue generally in the mid timeframes. 

That chart screams beefy snow showers with possible thunder snow! Given the sea temps are high enough still to inject some juice into the showers. Even with a Baltic Sea at 2c, northern Germany still totalled up falls of above 1ft! Back in March 2018

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91

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7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

While we're at it, another medium-term chart with loads of potential.

Caveat - it is the GEM and it is day 10 but fits it with ensemble guidance.

image.thumb.png.5c3025db1a637329a9c9608400df52e6.png

Spot on. The signals are there, foundations being laid, and now we're starting to see some detail emerging at the tail end of major model runs. There will be variance between models and runs until we get closer to the time, but I think we're on an expressway to cold with most exits leading to what we're looking for. There will always remain a low probability that we take the wrong exit and end up somewhere we don't want to be, but I think it is low risk...

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