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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

 

Help a newbie - at least spell the site correctly 😂

Technology stinks  # predictive 

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Far too many early celebrations in here and people are already deciding what outfit to stick on the snowman in their back garden !

Just because the current outputs look good doesn’t mean some new variables currently not seen might appear later on.

I’m not trying to being a misery but the really cold air is still not in the more reliable timeframe , and the best part can only happen once we get to see some stronger blocking which is still not a given .

As a coldie I’m happy with the trends but have been on this forum  for a very long time and have seen these premature celebrations turn very ugly if things don’t go as planned .

So cautiously optimistic is about as excited as I’m going to be for the timebeing !

 

Well said!  some of these charts are 10-12 days away and could be vastly different come tomorrow 

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1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Well said!  some of these charts are 10-12 days away and could be vastly different come tomorrow 

Red light at 168 orange at 144 green at 120.lol

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Hello All,

Watching the charts and discussion with interest.

One of the things I am interested in is the displacement of the jet stream in about 10 days time. I seem to remember reading somewhere that this type of plunge would end up being corrected northwards, as charts move into the reliable.

Is that correct? Why? 

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UKMO at 120, surely that’s another upgrade. 😳😳😳

310AF680-19AD-4128-8C45-238D2289037A.gif

Another day forward for the cold to come in if this is correct 

Edited by Ali1977

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UKMO solid, 144 will be revealing as to how that low acts

377B1227-C1BC-4F25-8F28-D3BAFE715D3B.gif

Edited by Weathizard

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what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

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Ukmo 120 carbon copy of yesterdays 144 hours chart!!crucial moment comimg up!!

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1 minute ago, madmunch said:

what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

Day 10 😂😂

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Not perfect but I prefer it to the icon because it looks cleaner, once again annoying we can’t see past this!

3C7FDB4C-8C47-482D-9483-547E56D93624.gif

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13 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Well said!  some of these charts are 10-12 days away and could be vastly different come tomorrow 

And some are not that trigger the process

Screenshot_20190111-155935_Chrome.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

UKMO solid, 144 will be revealing as to how that low acts

377B1227-C1BC-4F25-8F28-D3BAFE715D3B.gif

Looks like the Azores high will edge it east slightly. Next low close to Iceland should track SE wards can't see the high holding on like it has done for the past few weeks

UW144-21.thumb.GIF.8b8b955553a610bfa21a469319285658.GIF

Edited by Summer Sun

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3 minutes ago, madmunch said:

what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

When you squint and swear blind you can see snowflakes in the lampost light. 

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Just now, Weathizard said:

Not perfect but I prefer it to the icon because it looks cleaner, once again annoying we can’t see past this!

3C7FDB4C-8C47-482D-9483-547E56D93624.gif

We don't have access to the jet profile on the UKMO. If it's taking a NW/SE track it's good from that point, if not...

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2 minutes ago, madmunch said:

what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

Dont think the word experts is the right way to discribe them lol

 

ukmo 144 is a cracker

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3 minutes ago, madmunch said:

what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

I'd generally say t144 to t168 as a max for the most reliable output

Anything beyond this is more likely than not to change

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8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO at 120, surely that’s another upgrade. 😳😳😳

310AF680-19AD-4128-8C45-238D2289037A.gif

Another day forward for the cold to come in if this is correct 

That's a corker. 144 excellent too.

Edited by mountain shadow

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Can I remind folk that this thread is solely for discussing model output. If your post in here is just banter it will likely be moved or just disappear. Thank you.

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

I'd generally say t144 to t168 as a max for the most reliable output

Anything beyond this is more likely than not to change

Thank you for a helpful answer!

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In all honesty i dunno what to make of the ukmo at 144 hours!!dunno whats gona happen next!!before that its pretty good!

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GFS less progressive with that low out west shifted a fair few hundred miles SW there. 

986619EB-7D88-4757-A6F1-71A00D946CCB.png

9F7CC646-1E52-4998-B3CA-F04899C3CECF.png

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4 minutes ago, madmunch said:

what time point generally do the experts on here start to believe is 'reliable' out of interest?

I am no expert just have a long and painful experience of model watching. The absolute maximum would be 5 days but I would say 2/3 was safer. If you look at other forecasts on TV, for example, take note of how far they are going ahead that will give you an idea of how confident the professionals are. Basically, if it can go wrong it will.

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