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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

You dont need massive blocking over greenland

A steering High pressure will do...

 

8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes.

Think people are thinking only yellows and greens over Greenland = cold.

You don't need this, as Steve says small pockets of heights to disrupt the jet is enough. March 2013 had some good examples of this from memory. 

Yes indeed. But I don't think we are seeing any high pressure appearing in the charts to create what's needed. Lots of LP. But hey, I'm no expert, just looking at face value.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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1 minute ago, Lloyds32 said:

 

Yes indeed. But I don't think we are seeing any high pressure appearing in the charts to create what's needed. Lots of LP. But hey, I'm no expert, just looking at face value.

Wedges of higher heights (and they don’t need to be too high) will do the job if we have a Euro trough 

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3 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

 

Yes indeed. But I don't think we are seeing any high pressure appearing in the charts to create what's needed. Lots of LP. But hey, I'm no expert, just looking at face value.

Even at face value, it is good. Very good...

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The ecm is in the same ball park as the gfs post the short range, albeit with variations of the detail with iit's own interpretation of the precise phasing of the colder/warmer air.

Wednesday sees the passage of a major trough to the north and the associated frontal system bringing rain and quite strong winds to the UK and a brief northerly and then a transient ridge before the next system arrives.

t156.thumb.png.ae5910e8b095669438f40a05dde1c019.pngt192.thumb.png.af0d19ca6fc6996dce193cb1fece71a5.pngt222.thumb.png.98b474eb0e12766a0599326ef24f66d1.png

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Just now, s4lancia said:

Wowsers. I certainly left the best to view to last! That is some run. We don't get to see Op charts like this very often, in FI or otherwise...

today-gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.fe7d7cc290f005e035089df61232a2f9.png

Stunning

Its run of the season for me stunner and a banker.

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10 minutes ago, booferking said:

What a run from the FV3 para butral cold starts from next week right to the end what a run country snowed in?

gfs-16-384.png

I will have a butchers today!

Wetterzentrale day 10 Ecm shows the green steering wedge SE of Greenland...

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I will have a butchers today!

Wetterzentrale day 10 Ecm shows the green steering wedge SE of Greenland...

Imo it also shows the beginning of a strong Atlantic ridge 

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Just now, That ECM said:

Imo it also shows the beginning of a strong Atlantic ridge 

IF we get to day 10 on EC its game on 
?

Obviously thats a big if but finally we see an EC det cold with the potential to go even colder..

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will have a butchers today!

Wetterzentrale day 10 Ecm shows the green steering wedge SE of Greenland...

Which has been evident in the extended for days now ....... looking at the current evolution over the pole, I feel that the arctic ridge will extend south further east than greeny area ...... we may get a hint of this on the 46 later with its anomoly week 3.

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11 minutes ago, booferking said:

What a run from the FV3 para butral cold starts from next week right to the end what a run country snowed in?

gfs-16-384.png

Looks excellent to me. I do worry a bit when I see charts like that for the UK. We have plenty of snow and sub zero temps where I am now but people are more used to it and there is more infrastructure to deal with it. Will be a bit chaotic if that comes off. But enjoy if it does. Meanwhile I'm happy with the way the current ECM is going. And a little something to whet your snow appetite too. 

ECE1-240 (4).gif

IMG_20190109_122454.jpg

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Wedges of higher heights (and they don’t need to be too high) will do the job if we have a Euro trough 

Yes as a novice i don’t see heights as has previously been mentioned. 

Just looks blue and purple

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC is perfect! Justvwhat we wanted to start seeing! Great start to the day. GFs pants, but looks lost in its suite.

great start to the day. Happy Friday. ?

390F6C1E-62CE-4FBF-B53F-369E168026BE.thumb.png.25e0a47e9314331e6455ba2a96b8d8a2.png

 

It's Thursday!

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC is perfect! Justvwhat we wanted to start seeing! Great start to the day. GFs pants, but looks lost in its suite.

great start to the day. Happy Friday. ?

390F6C1E-62CE-4FBF-B53F-369E168026BE.thumb.png.25e0a47e9314331e6455ba2a96b8d8a2.png

 

Gfs is doing it standard thing of letting everyone down on the 00z only to bring hopes back up on the 12z and 18z!!nothing new there lol!!ukmo best of the bunch this morning!!

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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

EC is perfect! Justvwhat we wanted to start seeing! Great start to the day. GFs pants, but looks lost in its suite.

great start to the day. Happy Friday. ?

390F6C1E-62CE-4FBF-B53F-369E168026BE.thumb.png.25e0a47e9314331e6455ba2a96b8d8a2.png

Disappointing, just been told it’s Thursday. Of course it is, EC update tonight ?????????

Parallel is a cold outlier and the ensembles have trended milder toward the end

Screenshot_20190110-073322_Chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Parallel is a cold outlier and the ensembles have trended milder toward the end

Screenshot_20190110-073322_Chrome.jpg

FV3 is effectively a different model though. So it's a bit apples and oranges in a way.

Edited by Seasonality
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