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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't get me wrong i am really looking forward to what is a potential stonking last half of winter, i would just love to see a Greenland high develop though around 20-25th, i don't normally talk about brutal winters as a whole and episodic months as for one they are very unlikely, and for second i would just settle for a blistering snow event with 10 inches, preferably a foot, and would be over the moon with 2 of those in a winter (1991,1987), but if we were to get a greenland high, with the strat as it is, particularly with a cross polar ridging episode, i really think it would be our best chance in our lifetime we will get to see another 1947.

1947 is unrealistically extreme however if we assume it would last and the Feb CET would be cooler than January then winters 1991, 1978, 1965, 1956 and 1955 are probably more realistic.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

1947 is unrealistically extreme however if we assume it would last and the Feb CET would be cooler than January then winters 1991, 1978, 1965, 1956 and 1955 are probably more realistic.

I just feel that if we got the greeny high it could well topple to scandi and that 25-th Jan - 10th feb could come out sub zero, with the strat vortex already weak and at a time when the jet slows down anyway, i could see the blocking continuing.

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A   bit of fun T252 hrs. 

Forget snow starved southern areas if this was to pull of.

Snow intense and heavy

Its just nice to see the jet stream sinking south on a few runs.

 

19012018_0918.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I just feel that if we got the greeny high it could well topple to scandi and that 25-th Jan - 10th feb could come out sub zero, with the strat vortex already weak and at a time when the jet slows down anyway, i could see the blocking continuing.

I don’t disagree. The next bout from the Tropics should have peak effect around mid-Feb. The trick is keeping a cold spell that long.

Edited by summer blizzard
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6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

I don’t disagree. The next bout from the Tropics should have peak effect around mid-Feb. The trick is keeping a cold spell that long.

Is anything likely tropically driven so that we could get a trop driven split?, in other words the Greeny heights in the strat meeting with trop induced Greeny heights to finish the job completely, ultimately there will be too much forcing from the canadian segment in the strat so thats why i would expect the topple, but the strat FI is now pulling the siberian segment well out of harms way so thats my thoughts regarding a scandi high.

EDIT : or was doing on a few occasions the last few days.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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fantastic and very interesting post by @Roger J Smith 

A Jan 1947 redux would be nice though maybe too extreme as @andymusic post above.....however after the winter so far a few days of cold and snow would not be sniffed at....Things certainly looking up...heres hoping for a good set of ensembles 

Edited by Bottled Snow
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14 minutes ago, Purga said:

Nice snow event for the south and south west!

image.thumb.png.b9861db6ed2ea11f47c32203e8ce5751.png

It seems that different sites have different ideas when it comes to rendering these charts. 

This site, for example, shows rain to snow, but not much:

snowdepth_20190109_18_276.thumb.jpg.f75ef5e157b0d55243329cf138c07f6c.jpg

Another good illustration as to why precip-type charts outside of high resolution aren't to be trusted.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure how they will look on the graph, but the GEFS are a stonker for snow, littered with big events (sliders)

Sounds good feb can you post any ❄️?

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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

It seems that different sites have different ideas when it comes to rendering these charts. 

This site, for example, shows rain to snow, but not much:

snowdepth_20190109_18_276.thumb.jpg.f75ef5e157b0d55243329cf138c07f6c.jpg

Another good illustration as to why precip-type charts outside of high resolution aren't to be trusted.

charts will never really do it justice - snow will be like - "I'll do it on the day" - that's when we'll all find out lol

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8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Any news on the GEFS 18z ? Hope there gonna be stonking . 

For you (central england)

image.thumb.png.bfec28e2a8cd17b8b6f8c70f9c43beec.png

Edited by weirpig
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^^ 

Shows to those going on about the Greenland vortex that it’s not the be all and end all, does hinder things but not impossible. The high pressure to our south and west is the bigger issue, sooner we can lower pressure over Iberia the better 

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17 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Thats what I’m talking about! At this rate the Mean will be 0c at D16 ?

D6B1159E-7D6D-48BE-BDD0-64573F620A74.thumb.gif.a12805edd4bc4c4bab51a26a6a54a956.gif

Happy note to sign off on :lazy:

Yes and hopefully by the time we get to Saturday or Sunday some of those juicy charts will be coming in to the 7 day range 

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18z GFS ensembles looking really good now. This is for NW Ireland. Notice the increase in clustering towards the last third of the run between -5 and -10 850s. Some very mild outliers skewing the mean in my opinion. 

graphe3_1000___-7.3_54.6_Omagh (4).gif

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lows going NW - SE  (into colder air = ❄️ and potentially quite a bit where the boundary's between the less cold and the coldest of the air set up, and that is before my main interest period for blocking takes hold, charts like this increasing over the next week or so and it could be time for folks to be looking out the snow shovels and sledges but CALMNESS required til then as most likely some less snowy runs / blocked runs to come as is usually the case as the models try to grasp the most likely outcome)

tempresult_mwb7.thumb.gif.fc5eecd0233610a24a105fd267d7b358.giftempresult_ycc0.thumb.gif.b7d1601253e1a67c72519aa9cacc9f5d.giftempresult_ntb7.thumb.gif.58642b7c49662781c14a173085017d5a.giftempresult_vua0.thumb.gif.961c4d8460b9288cbd1f0b5d5dcd8c0c.gifgens-10-0-348.thumb.png.71b2e98f7061aeafe39f34a715a30fb5.png1863949984_gensnh-12-1-384(1).thumb.png.735da774843dd681205de9e84dfc667f.png  

 

still to be wary of that west based - NAO gensnh-15-1-384.thumb.png.12310d2867cbeb97569cbc3617f4ce7b.png

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19 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

^^ 

Shows to those going on about the Greenland vortex that it’s not the be all and end all, does hinder things but not impossible. The high pressure to our south and west is the bigger issue, sooner we can lower pressure over Iberia the better 

The greeny high would intuitively lower heights to the south, just gives you a more sure fire way and less flimsy / risky and longer lasting route to cold and snow than sliders, wedges etc.

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