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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

There will be lots of variations in terms of block placement . The main thing is we get to day 6 with the low to the se over northern Italy .

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Just now, captaincroc said:

Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

I would go with that, dew points should be low enough regardless.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

With the main PV lobe on the other side of the NH in FI the heights are pretty much dictating the flow for UK weather:

gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.ba7fb45f5fa0ed85db56dd9620e21405.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

Its 6 days away pal..

And imo no worrys at all regards upper airs..we are in the zone fully..

And they will hop -and jump around on microsacale notion..

Unbeleivable outs..

STONKING CHARTS..

over to the ecm..for more dramatics....of the decent sort...

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Who would have thought ......

anyway kold - I wouldn’t waste too much time on the minutiae of a gfs at day 9 ....another bus will be along shortly with sub day 5 stuff to look at !!

Very true, but I'm quite greedy with my runs!

Just would be a waste for us in the south which such perfect synoptics aloft to end up on the wrong side of any boundary, that's all...

Outrageous northern blocking, its actually almost too far north for us in the south ironically!

 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Heiggfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.16a6f36110a201e6d6280b6cfe39f50b.pnght's all the way from Siberia via Scandi to Greenland with undercutting scenario's,WHAT MORE CAN YOU WISH FOR,absolutely stunning chart.

Southward correction would be nice

To be honest just seeing the blocking signal retained this afternoon is good enough for me, detail can come later. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
14 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Just to show some perspective of the UKMO chart, the 850`s are cold but maybe not as cold as some may think. 

UW144-7.gif

Cold enough Stu, cold enough.

I can't quite believe the charts that are rolling out tonight, if Steve Murrs sausage could paint, this is what it would paint.

Quite remarkable.

Edited by Skyraker
I can't type coherently.
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

What even is happening to the GFS 12z by T300, I've not seen anything like this ever. Oh my the easterlies!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Quite a tight contrast on the 12z GFS at 240hrs by the way, 6-7C maxes in far south and rain, in S.Midlands and its 0C...

Anyway that's just an unreal block for sure, probably overly powerful if I'm honest, but great run.

Amazing for the north, good/great for the south bar a 24-48hr period.

PS, the only way it could be better is if the pattern is shifted literally 150 miles south...then perfection for ALL.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Look how far south that low has gone , that is incredible . It may pop out the other side of the image on the next frame

6D5541CB-53C5-451A-AD2F-C40016D2AB11.png

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
15 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I can't believe we are seeing synoptics like this at only 7-8 days out!!

image.thumb.png.4eefe449a296af602982e95e0bca7d7a.png

But, 7-8 days is such a long time in the weather world!

Too much time for spoilers and changes.

I will be cracking out the champagne when I see these charts within 2-3 days! 

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Look at that cold pool out east

51B381AB-2D8E-403D-AC46-B967F2E42D7E.thumb.png.e5320a88c298f08495d5b11e2820c4af.png

north american breast has been drained

The baby is up and running and turning into quite a beast.

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