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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Extended ensemble means starting to reduce the Western US ridge in favour of Alaskan / Arctic ridges. Will be interesting to watch this trend as it opens the door for more westerly flow through the southern arm of the jet and undercutting . 

The high expectation for February is for low pressure in the North Atlantic currently where we have a programmed anomalous ridge . 

Sounds like potentially an undercutting Atlantic GP..

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I can't help but giggle at the thought of this place should a Dec 2012 happen all over again! Models really are firming up on what could potentially be a very special and prolonged spell of winter weather!

The first hurdle (trough disrupting into Europe and height rises) is almost dealt with, we should get more model consensus for that this evening/tomorrow morning. Then if we get the azores/Arctic High link up the 6z GFS is what happens.

I'm relatively calm about that prospect, simply because the jet will dive SE again at some point between day 8-12 and we'd simply go into the cold pattern 3-5 days later than currently expected, can't really see anyway out of this unless we get one of those GFS dartboard low specials!

 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

I suspect GP is referring to a scandy high and LP undercutting...

Sounds fabulous..:-)

Yes, hopefully, can a scandi ridge persist for all that long though? you only need one of those lows to not draw an undercut and its game over.

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19 minutes ago, IDO said:

Good guidance from the GEFS for that link up between Atlantic Ridge and wedge to the N/NE:

gens_panel_xoa5.png  Now at T180: gens_panel_azs3.png

Control T180: gens-0-1-180.thumb.png.9d8a24b3029e69608b12d71c38dd42de.png

Nice trend...

 

Absolutely. For what it's worth I spot just 3 fails in those GEFS for the initial linkup... including the op and control that's a 3 in 22 chance of a more difficult route forward. I like those odds ?.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just seen the ENS

confidence up to 80% of the beast!

Timeline still +120 & non visibility of UKMO 168 accounts for the missing 20%

Never the less fantastic runs-

remember we are day 2 of the cold spell & ECM op runs to day 10 at least no end in site to day 11...

Thats a hefty cold spell- UK CET sub 3 ... As per winter forecast..

A fair few runs still have a fairly narrow ridge which sits fairly close to the UK, but keeps the winds from an easterly quadrant of some sort. Then most either withdraw the high and dive a LP SE over the UK again (rinse and repeat) or the block stays strong enough and the pattern keeps us in a broadly easterly flow of some type.

Always a risk of a temporary breakdown, especially in the south, but confidence growing that there will be a reload around 29-31st Jan.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, hopefully, can a scandi ridge persist for all that long though? you only need one of those lows to not draw an undercut and its game over.

Yeah, I've seen them in the archive charts lock solid for 3-4 weeks before, especially Feb 86 and Feb 47 are good example where the pattern utterly locked.

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4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

So the out of favour mostly slayed GFS is now our friend? To be honest it hasn`t really been wrong up until now, could be the form horse... ironic I know.

Not quite, ECM picked up on it first then the GFS came chasing behind it with the ICON and UKMO doing something slightly different.. 

 

Correct me if im wrong people

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Actually more like 06z control, and imagine that being undercut. Repeat: Euro trough going nowhere (and I;m taking more February here).

Rather decent prognosis then to say the least.!!!!

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9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

So the out of favour mostly slayed GFS is now our friend? To be honest it hasn`t really been wrong up until now, could be the form horse... ironic I know.

Its only rubbish when it shows zonality. On this occasion though it does look like its a bit later to the party. Interesting that the GFSP seems a bit later to the party than the old version though. 

People forget with GFS it does get some 'wins' as well. I recall it being first to bring the low up from the south to end the March cold spell. 

Anyway, cold now looks probable, snow looks very possible and we wait to see how it plays out. 4-5 weeks of exciting winter weather followed by a nice warm UK high later in March would be perfect!  

 

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Not quite, ECM picked up on it first then the GFS came chasing behind it with the ICON and UKMO doing something slightly different.. 

 

Correct me if im wrong people

Ukmo can’t really be ahead as it only goes to day 6!

ec has been the clear leader of the route forward (at the moment). And the gfs has been better than the para at picking up this pattern !! 

ICON has been poor on resolving the split flow in this instance .......

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6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Absolutely. For what it's worth I spot just 3 fails in those GEFS for the initial linkup... including the op and control that's a 3 in 22 chance of a more difficult route forward. I like those odds ?.

Worth noting Singularity that two of those three that don't make it, 2 of them STILL produce a cold/severe spell of weather towards the start of Feb. Indeed one creates a beast followed by a channel low forming and spinning into the channel like Dec 2010.

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Just for entertainment sake, at least 5 of the ensembles would go on to produce a set-up capable of producing a foot of snow somewhere at one point in the run, and I'm probably being conservative with that number of 5...

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Meanwhile back in the GFSP land...

The block is forced back a little but holds firm just to the east of the UK, atlantic lows try to push in BUT you can probably guess what happens.

Wales/SW probably good for a 1ft on this run, and then we are back to northern blocking and cold diving south.

The PARA is an outstanding run in its own right and in most years would be getting praised as run of the year, that shows how good the GFS/ECM charts have been at times this week!

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