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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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This precip loooks heavier than forecast, could we end up having a few decent coverings today I wonder!! Maybe just higher ground but some could do ok.

AFD8920E-76AE-482A-A9FD-2357971BA327.png

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Anyone with good knowledge of the archives ever seen a chart like this appear?

Weird.thumb.gif.6bf2ab6dd543d26c2c306f336d1f0ef4.gif

Very strange, simultaneous Westerlies and Easterlies.. 

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11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.746da75f778f831a3b6277bb3320db55.png

Those uppers do not suggest a cold UK high to me? They suggest an easterly...(day 10).

It's a weak easterly flow for sure.

Anyway 240hrs setup is actually fairly stable, no obvious breakdown front that slack easterly.

Daniel, it's uncommon but look at some of the coolest winter months, most will feature on that type of setup...

Edited by kold weather
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8 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Are you deliberately setting out to find as many flaws in the models this morning? The micro details will continue to change run to run.

Stunning runs all round and nearly cross model agreement - just need a more convincing UKMO.

Of course not, just commenting on what I've seen. The ECM is great, but verbatim it's not that snowy...and could easily go wrong that's all.

One last time, ECM is GREAT this run! 

GEM is even better. GFS is also grand but probably even drier than the ECM.

Edited by kold weather
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Todays favourite model is the CMA 😂😂😂😂,  to be fair it has been quite consistent 

Screenshot_20190118-074048.png

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Every picture tells a story

65C858D4-FF80-483A-8643-2183EE3195B9.thumb.png.0c11fc4dd007d9db6b0f6b1eb8dc5964.png73034797-C144-4493-83DD-60EECF6658BA.thumb.jpeg.e79b244e804c22fef775413d26178ec5.jpeg

It's a cracker whichever way you look at it. We don't often get to see a cold slack flow over ground that may already have snow cover. Could be some very cold overnight minima if that did verify. The words "penetrating frost" spring to mind...

Edited by WhiteFox
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EPS seems to be a good match for the ECM det run out to 180

EPS.thumb.png.e353643bdc1cd8835c6c4d2d32770266.png

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Anyone with good knowledge of the archives ever seen a chart like this appear?

Weird.thumb.gif.6bf2ab6dd543d26c2c306f336d1f0ef4.gif

Very strange, simultaneous Westerlies and Easterlies.. 

Best thing about that chart as far as i can see is how much reduced the PV is to our NW, must leave the door open for more heights to our NW? 

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Yes, the trends continue in much the same way but as I said yesterday - the set-up is precarious and highly changeable within a short time-frame. I don't know about how the different models resolve the resolution of the upper-troughing west of Greenland or over N.Canada, but I'm suspect of this pattern. I think given the record in these situations, the extent of that cold air will end up producing sufficient cyclogenesis in the N.Atlantic to erode heights over Scandi, where quite frankly we need them if we are to have any snow except the SOUTH of the country. Too many a time have we ended up with a weak block collapsing over the UK with shortwaves over the top, flurries for the far SE and the main LOW heading off south towards Italy and Greece. I predict the same to happen in this scenario.

Edited by PersianPaladin
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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Every picture tells a story

65C858D4-FF80-483A-8643-2183EE3195B9.thumb.png.0c11fc4dd007d9db6b0f6b1eb8dc5964.png73034797-C144-4493-83DD-60EECF6658BA.thumb.jpeg.e79b244e804c22fef775413d26178ec5.jpeg

oh I Get It Superstitious! Lol

 

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Current Netweather radar for anyone interested;

 

Capture.PNG

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.746da75f778f831a3b6277bb3320db55.png

Those uppers do not suggest a cold UK high to me? They suggest an easterly...(day 10).

That is a amazing chart for us coast dwellers, showers tend to get stuck on the coast in that type of set up

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

EPS seems to be a good match for the ECM det run out to 180

EPS.thumb.png.e353643bdc1cd8835c6c4d2d32770266.png

 

Nice looking setup, euro trough looks King on that setup still.

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44 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

And at 240hrs the ecm has lost all heights to our North. Bitterly cold over England though with ice day likely. Scope for upgrades later.....We need them

Yes bitterly cold but there are heights to the north east.  However, and I’ve mentioned this a bit, the heights will be under attack but in our favour as the surface heights enough to keep the disruption and deflective angle of attack. Expect another arctic attack from displaced PV plunging NW/SE.  With deep cold over us and very low surface temps....l anticipate a very wintry scene towards months end....  indeed which could be on top of a pretty wintry scene beforehand.

This morning imo we have the best support across the board for a very cold outbreak to start next week....it’s getting close now

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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3 minutes ago, PersianPaladin said:

Yes, the trends continue in much the same way but as I said yesterday - the set-up is precarious and highly changeable within a short time-frame. I don't know about how the different models resolve the resolution of the upper-troughing west of Greenland or over N.Canada, but I'm suspect of this pattern. I think given the record in these situations, the extent of that cold air will end up producing sufficient cyclogenesis in the N.Atlantic to erode heights over Scandi, where quite frankly we need them if we are to have any snow except the SOUTH of the country. Too many a time have we ended up with a weak block collapsing over the UK with shortwaves over the top, flurries for the far SE and the main LOW heading off south towards Italy and Greece. I predict the same to happen in this scenario.

Only if that signal for the Euro trough disappears. The ECM almost takes it too far south, but this is no ordinary setup which we've seen in that past.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Of course not, just commenting on what I've seen. The ECM is great, but verbatim it's not that snowy...and could easily go wrong that's all.

One last time, ECM is GREAT this run! 

I have very little understanding of the charts, so I appreciate you pointing out what could go wrong, much better than everyone just ramping the charts and then it being a total shock when its not a repeat of 1947.   

I have no problem with people getting very  exited about good charts, but that means people must also be allowed to be down about poor ones or even point out the odd flaw in otherwise good one.   We could have a very boring 100% neutral thread, I dont thing ppl want that, but  if we are going to give emotional reactions to charts, it must work both ways, far too many of you are more than happy to jump on the BOOM train, but immediately criticise caution. 

 

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1 minute ago, WhiteFox said:

Only if that signal for the Euro trough disappears. The ECM almost takes it too far south, but this is no ordinary setup which we've seen in that past.

Yes, the evolution is different but essentially the same dynamics and rules apply in terms of cold-advection. I'm currently more interested in that Greenland low and to what extent it actually produces snow for the country. It might be more surprising than forecast.

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Solid mean at 144hrs.

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

Edited by kold weather
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GFS is cold but dry, gone from 16cm of snow to none on tuesday.

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12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes bitterly cold but there are heights to the north east.  However, and I’ve mentioned this a bit, the heights will be under attack but in our favour as the surface heights enough to keep the disruption and deflective angle of attack. Expect another arctic attack from displaced PV plunging NW/SE.  With deep cold over us and very low surface temps....l anticipate a very wintry scene towards months end....  indeed which could be on top of a pretty wintry scene beforehand.

This morning imo we have the best support across the board for a very cold outbreak to start next week....it’s getting close now

 

BFTP

I think your analysis is spot on. If you really want a long cold spell which doesn't dry up you do need the upper high decaying to the east of us and to have a trigger low setup a Greenland high. IF we get lucky,  we could fr one cold spell right into another.

KS, definitely at stage 2. I have no doubt there will be snow, just the models at the moment are very sparse.

Edited by kold weather
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The latest Precip type update shows the band quickly fizzing out as it crosses into Central parts, snow risk fairly limited away from Wales/Higher ground today it would seem

nmmgif.thumb.gif.8e48ccd18323f4d3e2b0c1f7e174bfca.gif

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