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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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With the ecm the complex transition at T132 becomes by 168 an area of low pressure over western Europe with the subtropical high in the Atlantic ridging  north east but under pressure from the next trough pushing east Thus a north easterly wind over the UK. By T198 the trough has split the ridge creating a high cell to the north east which facilitates the advection of very cold air under the southern flank. A very precise evolution unlikely to be repeated I would have thought

t132.thumb.png.bc1e47e467c682e6a2fd72566e9f559c.pngt168.thumb.png.3d5c63bbf1b1c92d035d926502d27381.pngt198.thumb.png.a2ffc9ea59d7642021badfc9577d97a9.png

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And at 240hrs the ecm has lost all heights to our North. Bitterly cold over England though with ice day likely. Scope for upgrades later.....We need them

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Models great this morning, getting those wedge of heights into the NE. This means that while we wait for the upstream Pacific amplification and the inevitable Atlantic push we have cold ongoing and a block for the Atlantic to hopefully undercut.

The op and control are on the same songsheet and good cluster reinforcing this pattern. At D8:

gens_panel_qtv4.png

Variations on the theme in those supporting ensembles so surface conditions may vary within that envelope.

So we need to hope that there are upgrades as to the initial push to get the block into a more productive snow maker before the inevitable squeeze from the Atlantic. Too early to worry about those details, today is about getting run after run along these lines...

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Pressure won’t collapse with low heights to our south.

Not totally but fair to say what we have is more of a cold UK/Euro high rather than a scandi by 240hrs due to the pressure from the NW by the vortex.

I'd love to see where it goes from 240hrs.

Edited by kold weather
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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There may be come the day but again, the raw data is generally a high ground affair and the streamers evident on yesterday’s 12z stiff e flow are very toned down on this run 

detail remains difficult on the whole set up 

True, but a general observation, and certainly not a criticism of what you've said. It's great for UK based cold weather fans to see the cold air arriving full stop, I'm sure snow will follow (don't want to jinx it). Much easier for those of us based 1500km further east! The wait this year has been painful for UK cold lovers.

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Day 10 isn’t a chart I’ve seen before ........

btw, people keep going on about greeny highs on the 46 ..... the charts you see are means for 7 days .... there are no big greeny upper ridges showing on the 46.  

you wouldn’t expect features like that to show at more than two/three  weeks on a 51 run ens mean..... heights will be  higher than normal to our n and lower to our south ....... the deduction will be that we see one establish and the clusters may well reflect that but we don’t see the clusters so must rely on titbits on twitter or metoffice stuff 

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Looking at the raw data there is little shower activity past 25th over than favoured spots due yo more stable air as the high pressure collapses towards the UK/central Europe. It maybe a little overdone, but despite the cold it doesn't inherently look snowy to me.

BA, I've seen them historically looking through the records, normally bitter Sub zero days but dry by that point.

Edited by kold weather
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So looking vey good now an easterly flow setting in next week south east England looking snowy.😂8472BAB8-1CB7-4350-9FF4-D87D2B0313EE.thumb.png.50a676e2beca6349373508ab08943ae1.png

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Think people are jumping the gun here let's get the important time frame currently 120hrs to 164hrs down to 96hrs before we start worrying about precipitation.

Get the cold in and the snow will come 

Edit just seen the GEM it's done a complete 180 from yesterday 

Screenshot_20190118-071934.png

Edited by seabreeze86
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One other thing ive noticed is definitely a trend towards more pressure comeing from the PV by 192hrs on both the GFS and ECM which may curtail at least the convective element of the easterly as GP establishes near our shores.

Also confirmed ice days by 27th on the ECM 

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Looking at the raw data there is little shower activity past 25th over than favoured spots due yo more stable air as the high pressure collapses towards the UK/central Europe. It maybe a little overdone, but despite the cold it doesn't inherently look snowy to me.

Have to agree although no doubt it will get very cold next week there is just not much snow about. Any ppn shown is mostly a sleety Mix. Let's hope for the pattern to be shifted about 100 miles further west and we can really tap into some nice ppn and uppers. Also not nice to see people having a dig at you for basically commenting on what is shown and having a balanced view. Let's hope we get further upgrades and some snowy action.

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Im not sure why folk are talking about any areas of high pressure collapsing at day ten?Your not going to see a GH any time soon plus the heighths don't need to be huge given there ability to disrupt any incoming areas of low pressure.

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11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not totally but fair to say what we have is more of a cold UK/Euro high rather than a scandi by 240hrs due to the pressure from the NW by the vortex.

I'd love to see where it goes from 240hrs.

Yes, it's one option and precarious at points, but it's such a complex setup that it seems unlikely. Having said that, the Low pressure is still diving towards the south, so other opportunities for snow and it seems that the Euro trough remains a strong signal!

Any other time we'd love to have a chart like that. Only thing remaining now is to get more ensembles onside and it's looking good. 

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23 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

At 216, looks like we're into repeating pattern territory?  Could be a big old battleground coming up here.

image.thumb.png.4de9c191dadf11e0196e911903ca81c0.png

And what a battleground it would be, cold vs very cold and in the middle heading in heavy snow! 

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6 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Have to agree although no doubt it will get very cold next week there is just not much snow about. Any ppn shown is mostly a sleety Mix. Let's hope for the pattern to be shifted about 100 miles further west and we can really tap into some nice ppn and uppers. Also not nice to see people having a dig at you for basically commenting on what is shown and having a balanced view. Let's hope we get further upgrades and some snowy action.

It's fine, I was right when I get said heights would collapse towards the UK by 240hrs and that is exactly what happened. People hear the word collapse and assume that must mean mild and Atlantic taking over, but I think it's clear that isn't the case on the 00z, but nonetheless the core does shift about 700 miles southwards, so important that's a collapse from where it was.

Despite being dryish by 216hrs, and that is actually one of my favourite winter setups, bitter cold.

PS, the low coming in n at 240hrs is already drying out over Ireland, won't be anything left of it by the time it gets over to England/Scotland!

Edited by kold weather
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From where I’m sitting at this stage I don’t think the models could look any better. They are pretty much all following the same lines and all routes are leading to cold. No point in trying to say where will snow if at all it’s ages away, it’s all about getting the right temperatures around for now

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2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

From where I’m sitting at this stage I don’t think the models could look any better. They are pretty much all following the same lines and all routes are leading to cold. No point in trying to say where will snow if at all it’s ages away, it’s all about getting the right temperatures around for now

It's a slack flow to be sure but Christ on a bike is it cold.

"Build it and they will come".... get the cold in and then look for snow.

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