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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Clearly not.  This AZH ‘part of the slug’ is an issue.  Concerned that things are being shunted east

 

BFTP

Depends how much you believe gfs 06z run has the NH profile anywhere near correct.I wouldn’t be putting any money on it that’s for sure,a complete mess.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

Posted Images

Very underwhelming and perhaps typical of gfs at this stage couldn't be less. Inspiring if it tried. Suggests it's still getting a handle on things for now? 

Edited by snowfish1
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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Yuk! Someone fly a plane over that vortex piece and drop a nuke on it!

8ADD9886-A579-4A8D-966B-15D854CC6908.png

Going to be a memorable snowy January for many parts of Europe though. Lovely big Arctic High but the PV in the wrong place.

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Just now, SLEETY said:

Depends how much you believe gfs 06z run has the NH profile anywhere near correct.I wouldn’t be putting any money on it that’s for sure,a complete mess.

Indeed ECM and UKMO to my eye not as pleasing either but as I say for me a watching brief.  None will seem to take the lead....not yet anyway.

 

BFTP

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npst30.png npst30.png

GFS consistently manifesting the tri-vortex pattern at 30 hPa now, but with the positions shifting about a lot.

However, provided the reversal has propagated down by then, the placement may not be a big deal, only the fact that the vortex has unusually far to go in order to become organised again (except at the upper levels, which is not a problem for us cold-wise).

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

If anyone interested the 0z  for the Para is running    very strange 

A good para and good ENS and I’ll discount the GFS I think!! For no real reason other than it wasn’t very good for coldies

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Going to be a memorable snowy January for many parts of Europe though. Lovely big Arctic High but the PV in the wrong place.

Indeed, just too much going on towards the tip of SE Greenland, HP too far East, the rest of Europe having a wonderful cold time. The usual theme for most winters recently.

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10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Seems the Ops are not on board yet with any proper cold before the 20th at least despite some juicy ensembles members.

The wait goes on for anything in the reliable time frame.  

Anything before 21st was always going to be a bonus anyway.

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00z EPS clusters still on track with ridging to the west and NW and Euro troughing, but after the 21st ...

T+300

300.thumb.PNG.d373f8529d88c1f06e920baefe29f937.PNG

T+324

324.thumb.PNG.36c8af63f2695cefba6dc42fe6d14ef0.PNG

The wait for it come into the reliable timeframes continues ….

 

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

I'm beginning to wonder whether the GFS is suffering from Trump's grandstanding...some kind of data issues must be evident; not to mention zero human intervention? 

image.thumb.png.10601ce70dc1b8f4619f7985d8845257.png

Next thing you’ll be telling us there’s a lack of balloon data or something ? The GFS very rarely picks up a signal and brings it into a reliable timeframe so I’m not too concerned really, think the outlook remains broadly the same.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters say 75/25 on the euro troughing .... the 25% a slow burner to cold. (Still Not arrived by day 15)

the fog clearing but the mist will hang around for a while 

When is looking like the earliest we may have some substantially colder on those Blue, anything before the 20th? 

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Next thing you’ll be telling us there’s a lack of balloon data or something ? The GFS very rarely picks up a signal and brings it into a reliable timeframe so I’m not too concerned really, think the outlook remains broadly the same.

Didn't mean it that way, W. But with the FV3 still stuck on yesterday's 06Z, there are clearly issues there somewhere...

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Never understand why so many get deflated by every chart that is not to their wishes. Surely the main take away from the last few days is a positive one for cold lovers trending towards a colder to cold last third of the month. That's 11 days away, no need for every chart to be a ramp from now to then just as long as it comes together in the end. 

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Good news, the GFS Op WILL be a warm outlier . Plenty of v cold options by next Sat on the ENS.

Para looking promising at day 8

EFAAEB20-C19A-4D5B-BA8C-852ECF5A54F8.png

Edited by Ali1977
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13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Didn't mean it that way, W. But with the FV3 still stuck on yesterday's 06Z, there are clearly issues there somewhere...

YEP IT BE "PARA GATE"!!!! Anyway still on a slow burner on the runs today so far.I cant see when the change will come atm but im sure its on its way.Imo the gfs has looked very volatile over the last 3-4 days

Edited by swfc
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6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Good news, the GFS Op WILL be a warm outlier . Plenty of v cold options by next Sat on the ENS.

Para looking promising at day 8

EFAAEB20-C19A-4D5B-BA8C-852ECF5A54F8.png

I'm quite liking the Control run from around 288, perfectly feasible route!

tempresult_hoq0.gif

 

Edited by karlos1983
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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Good news, the GFS Op WILL be a warm outlier . Plenty of v cold options by next Sat on the ENS.

Para looking promising at day 8

An outlier 850 wise I would agree but looking at the stamps, there is a lot of ensembles that blow that low up out to our west, yesterday there was a lot more amplification around day 10-12 now there’s quite an even split, I do think the GFS is having a wobble but hopefully it is only a wobble.

Looking even further out at 300 hours I honestly can’t take any guidance, it’s a real mish mash! But I’m going to cherry pick this one... 

572EDF52-8F90-4BB1-99A8-5D225AF35836.png

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