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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

They usually do when there's this much uncertainty though..

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

Well if you drink copious amounts of T246 then you will have a very very sore head.

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

They usually do when there's this much uncertainty though..

Not sure, i have seen them tweek FAX charts before, sometime against their model..

Either way im reserving judgement until tomorrow..

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The thermals may be required for work and that’s at mid day ?

212335A6-8F42-4092-AC79-8716A89E4570.png

There’s nothing nice about that lol it’s bloody freeeezzing. Of course if it’s white it will be better but probably even colder

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

Of course they will

even we all know more runs needed for confidence.

to much risk to reveal this possible outcome to the general public.

but wow not often we can sit and watch this amazing possible outcome

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10 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The EC46 has pretty much the entire month of February covered with Northern blocking and Euro troughing.. 

Probably the best update yet

Beijing Climate Centre model has northern blocking in place through most of February as well. Don't know if that model is any good in terms of verification stats.

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According to the GFS 18z, much of the UK spends between T162 to T384 under -8 uppers! That corresponds to 8/9 days in a row with temperatures not getting above freezing... almost!

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1 minute ago, Premier Neige said:

Beijing Climate Centre model has northern blocking in place through most of February as well. Don't know if that model is any good in terms of verification stats.

I saw somewhere it was the best at long range predicting last years cold in February/March, so I guess that’s something at least 

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Regarding the UKMO fax chart I swear I have heard they never alter it at t120 it’s just the same as the op . Don’t know if I’m talking complete rubbish , I’m sure someone will put me right ?? 

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2 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Beijing Climate Centre model has northern blocking in place through most of February as well. Don't know if that model is any good in terms of verification stats.

I think Gavin P rates it and the JMA long ranger as well.

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

According to the GFS 18z, much of the UK spends between T162 to T384 under -8 uppers! That corresponds to 8/9 days in a row with temperatures not getting above freezing... almost!

IF the 18z came off, I'm really struggling to see any real slackening of the cold flow before at least the 5th of Feb, the jet flow is fracturing upstream again at 360hrs again and will just re-enforce the upper high over Scandi plus maybe give us another snow attempt from SW.

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

According to the GFS 18z, much of the UK spends between T162 to T384 under -8 uppers! That corresponds to 8/9 days in a row with temperatures not getting above freezing... almost!

Would be nominally +2 degsC, which is cold enough.

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A fascinating run, with a resolute cold pool over us.

The way that the Canadian lobe of the PV is allowed to throw low after low without trough disruption looks unlikely, though. Surely it won't leave it until the last couple of frames the way that the 18z does?

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Final post from me, I'm having way too much fun over a GFS chart.

Am I right in thinking the down-welling of easterly winds in the troposphere has fully occurred by this point?

Easterly.thumb.jpg.dda92f757aff4be9926b4ea5ac558063.jpg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

OK, not sure if any of us can take much more excitement, but the GFSP is looking much improved at 96 as well.

18z image.thumb.png.cb379dc72f17aca79e4f144f21dffa19.png 12z image.thumb.png.85982321a357eaad8637fde1079cfa9a.png

Let’s hope so. It’s been the only one of the main models to show no easterly at all. Bizzare, given that earlier this winter it was the only one throwing out wintry charts.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The best ever 46 with the entire 46 days uppers being well below average!  T2’s will show by the morning 

infact, days 39/46 is now a height/slp mean/anom copy of days 18/25. Previous couple of runs relaxed the euro trough beyond days 35/38. 

Just for a giggle do they have lying snow charts on those runs? - could be talking quite widely across even lowland England and Wales in metres rather than inches if there was!!!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The best ever 46 with the entire 46 days uppers being well below average!  T2’s will show by the morning 

infact, days 39/46 is now a height/slp mean/anom copy of days 18/25. Previous couple of runs relaxed the euro trough beyond days 35/38. 

Intersting because the 18z GFS also looks like there is literally no way out of the cold pattern, the jet keeps fracturing around 50W and re-enforcing the Scandi high, indeed right at the end strong suggestions of a cross polar flow trying to set-up as well.

Does show though that even if this attempt doesn't work, we likely will have others.

ps, shouldn't say this, but the 47 winter only really truly took off around this same point (I know that there were cold spells, but not as legendary.)

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just for a giggle do they have lying snow charts on those runs? - could be talking quite widely across even lowland England and Wales in metres rather than inches if there was!!!!!

I’d prefer if they were truthful ?

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