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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Was just about to post the same...must be a DP or DAM issue? Uppers and ground temps look ok. Anyone with access to that data able to share?

Dew points look like they are a bit too high, but in interesting contrast, the GFS ensembles have really moved towards at least a decent back end snow event from this front. So interesting to see how the models disagree on this!

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16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Panic over for now, the 12z EC has clean separation of the Euro trough from upper westerlies near Greenland after early-mid week disruption and BOOM!

ECMWF high res gets 10/10, GFS op 6/10, UKMO 4/10 from me.

 

Nick F a boom-booming, wow! I've clearly got some reading up to do, but we coldies seem happy enough. Should you get the time, I'd love a one-off blog post for us all to digest? If you're on the boom uptake, must be good!

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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8 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but it shows no snow accumulation away from Wales on Tuesday. It is possible that it will be a rain event on Tuesday? Just asking the question?

image.png

Peak District ,Cumbrian fells & Northen Pennines look ok ??

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Next step will be at around 19:47, trying to garnish majority support from the eps.

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Just a quick one-do you think ECM Is a cold outlier?

genuine question as it seems too good to be true

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1 minute ago, Hull snow said:

Hi all not posted for a long time which model do we think is correct JMA very consistent with its outlook 

??  _  Yesterday it was showing a Jan 1987 style Easterly, now its showing cool zonality.

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18 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Me a ring the slight north easterly component and remembering unless the flow comes directly from the east or south east I get sod all like last year lol.

Pressure is much lower on these charts though,

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1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just a quick one-do you think ECM Is a cold outlier?

genuine question as it seems too good to be true

Judging by recent trends I’m going to guess it’s definitely on the cold side but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did have a bit of support. Tell me if I’m wrong people ?

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1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just a quick one-do you think ECM Is a cold outlier?

genuine question as it seems too good to be true

You would think it would have some support with that frigid air building to the East, so probably not a complete outlier synoptically, uppers wise though it will be towards the cold end of the spread at the very minimum.

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14 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but it shows no snow accumulation away from Wales on Tuesday. It is possible that it will be a rain event on Tuesday? Just asking the question?

image.png

No it’s simply not showing anything because it’s too far in advance for it to show. Them charts are only any good within 24hrs and even then I think they are pretty dump tbh

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Uptick in the models today"ukmo"bit flat but potential is there for a nhp change over the next ten days.whether it brings the UK wintry conditions is unsure ATM but the cold cyclonic signal is there.

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14 minutes ago, ribster said:

You were saying? ?

I’ll be honest, I’m surprised but pleased. Now can it continue? Still think the charts will moderate as they approach the reliable range though. Unless this really is going to be historical?

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I would love to know where the ECM goes past 240hrs, may well be one of those set-ups which at 500hpa doesn't look that great BUT because we have such deep cold aloft/surface by that point, any flow is going to have a real battle to get through and opens the door to more cutoff troughs.

Anyway ensembles are all over the place, but most definitely have that cold theme with most being some variation of cyclonic cold, with a few going for a...beast...I don't think that's most likely at the moment in the long term, I suspect unlike late Feb 18, this will be a slow burner type set-up with a few ups and rebounds.

Edited by kold weather
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5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

No it’s simply not showing anything because it’s too far in advance for it to show. Them charts are only any good within 24hrs and even then I think they are pretty dump tbh

It was showing it for the 0z run

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

BREAKING!

EPS are absolutely SOLID!!

 

WOW.png

The Euro trough looks a lot further South into Europe on that one?

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Just now, snowblizzard said:

The Euro trough looks a lot further South into Europe on that one?

Yeah that's the 00z run, I got excited and posted without actually checking which run it was from.. 

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27 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Slight similarities with the gfs 6z run after 168/192 other than somewhat of a flatter pattern to the north at 240... the cold quicker to get on this ecm 12z run though.

Why are focusing on what happens after 240, rather the wintry depiction up to this point? It seems overly negative.

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Just now, Bricriu said:

Why are focusing on what happens after 240, rather the wintry depiction up to this point? It seems overly negative.

Maybe because its the model thread?

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25 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My God what a run from the Ecm 12z which follows through on the potential shown on last evening's 12z!!..great time to be a coldie with some truly amazing output today..think it's the tip of the iceberg so to speak..plenty of very wintry weather in the pipeline i think!?:cold-emoji:❄️:shok:..seriously if this isn't worth a BOOM...nothing is!!!:bomb:

216_thick.png

 

240_thick.png

 

Get those greens away from Ireland?

Edited by Blessed Weather
Some charts removed to shorten quote.
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Okay.. for real this time. 

EPS remains firm, slight differences but in general it supports the Det out to 156hrs at least which is how far it's gotten

BOOM.thumb.png.0b8baf7f27d1fc81b01986818cff41ba.png

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