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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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I think one of the bigger issues is the  lack of higher heights across scandi and norway!!yesterday it looked there was a nice wedge setting up there which meant the lows were disrupting to over and to the west of uk but now that its gone its just easy for the lows to go further east!!over the eastern us it looks pretty fine!

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5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

There's a reason nobody ever posts the APERGE global charts..

Precip @close range mod..

Otherwise..trash...

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GFS has better uppers for next Tue - looks like an upgrade on snow that day on this run 

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The storm is further East on the GFS too..

gfsnh-0-114.thumb.png.326918e804803c733354da6e70fb710c.png

Victory and a half for the GFSP if it turns out to have beaten the entire GEFS/EPS!

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21 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Not sure what to make of that upstream after 240 - a bit flat

 

I think the GFS and ECM will move towards the UKMO and Icon solution. So the UK won't be going into the freezer next week, unfortunately.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I disagree. Looks like its going the way of the ICON to me. Let's see

gfs-0-120.png?12

I would agree but have been wrong before..... Looks like the models are converging 

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS has better uppers for next Tue - looks like an upgrade on snow that day on this run 

yup, fun for most

image.thumb.png.f4c204ada4412a43f601eebd2cd3a02e.png

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS looking fine, keep calm!

B4BE5B0E-17D2-4964-A670-D17E7818D5D2.png

All well and good, but we need agreement and we haven't got it yet. Still much to be resolved ?

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS has better uppers for next Tue - looks like an upgrade on snow that day on this run 

Not according to the charts i'm afraid. Appears to be non accumulating sleet/wet snow, 12z on top vs 6z bottom

image.png

image.png

gfsnh-0-120.png

Edited by WalsallWeather123
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Gfs 12z..very decent with overall. Synops..

That wedge @-in an-around the scandinavian sect-more than ample

Another peach...incoming!!

gfsnh-0-120.png

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Expect the ecm to go further east later!!!i dont think it shall be as bad as the para or icon though°!!

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Well the GFS looks fine to me, not sure what people are looking at must be looking at a different run ? 

638ADBB9-C00A-4EAB-9EF9-2A17D084CCB2.png

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1 minute ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Not according to the charts i'm afraid. Appears to be non accumulating sleet/wet snow

image.png

image.png

Any snow on the day will be a nowcast event anyway so take those charts with an enormous pinch of salt, whether they show nowt or snowmageddon tbh.

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A little closer to the mark but the broad setup from the GFS IS still very different from the ICON.

Maybe HP over the UK this run but we will see.

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GFS still looking fine. I genuinely wonder how people jump to some of these conclusions some times. Still lots of time for things to change on the UKMO. Most important thing is:

KEEP ECM ON OUR SIDE

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Oh dear..

1994344587_Ohdear.thumb.gif.c6d68f1bf8c2f16fcac05bd12d10a4d7.gif

Not the greatest of UKMO charts it has to be said.

It's not the worst though. The pattern is still amplified and suspect another lobe of PV will be ejected SE into the euro trough. Whilst it might delay an Easterly, there is still plenty snow opportunities there.

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So basically there's been downgrades this morning followed by upgrades then followed again by perceived downgrades?

All in all typical model run variances - surely there's room for it to upgrade again or am I hopecasting here?

GFS shows some great potential for next week so I'm going to remain cautious but optimistic.  

Nick S- PM me the helpline number please as a back up.  

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17 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Still that magic number 10 days away!! That won’t verify like that I’m afraid ?

Yes that’s 10 D away ,,,,,But ah! next Tuesday might

EDIT..The potential nextweek is looking good for winter to finally hit the UK :oldgrin:

45799221-65B9-45E3-B2FD-1A399697E597.thumb.png.1dbc0a17e676b640d6ce7a2d469482da.png

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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4 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

GFS still looking fine. I genuinely wonder how people jump to some of these conclusions some times. Still lots of time for things to change on the UKMO. Most important thing is:

KEEP ECM ON OUR SIDE

Here's why.

The storm over the USA is further East and moves into the Atlantic faster, as per ICON and GFS Para which is why they both end up being flat 

6z

6z.thumb.png.8481dfc76e25536bdfbd8e0d2a19c790.png

12z

12z.thumb.png.5b9ff0e3255cc07ca7b7488e1596261d.png

The entire amplification is dependant on that storm NOT coming East so fast. UKMO has it further East and as a result the high doesn't amplify enough to "topple" towards Scandinavia which then forces low heights South into Europe and thus, Easterly. 

Instead, the high topples to the W/SW of the UK and we see Westerlies.

GFS is better than the UKMO but it's not as good as this mornings. Having said that, with the GFS performance of late it wouldn't be a huge surprise if it takes a month to catch onto the change in pattern. So in short, next week remains ?????

Edited by Daniel Smith
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