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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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This morning 0z Ensembles from the Netherlands..... the 06 is colder than all but two runs in the mid part of the run. AKA not a lot of support.

Then again the 06z Run yesterday had two runs that was shown across all the model outputs on the 12z (except the ICON) So who knows.

On the scale of Upgrades Vs Downgrades (we can't have any more upgrades)

It's also the kind of run that would seriously threaten temperature records 
gfs-0-312.png?6

Edited by frosty ground
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS just broke the internet

20-40cm 

overnight T2Ms - with no end in sight- very 'JMA'

0A9B1B54-BAFE-4CBD-830B-6D3078BE9AF2.thumb.png.718b6b44b21f7a33bc736432b05a7722.png732CC6AF-50CA-4E0F-9519-0A690F1B9B72.thumb.png.e40af30a6a932807fe69d04648c33078.png

Yes Steve... what a clonker!! 

Key here is for the disruption to be kind and push the trough well into Europe and getting those heights setting up over the Barents Sea allowing some deep cold advection. Tasty! 

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Doesn't GFS have a tendency to flip strongly from progressive Atlantic conditions to doing the complete opposite and going OTT though?...personally feel the 0z might be more on the money (just a hunch) with northern heights later transferring to a Greenland block, maybe similarish also the ecm 0z, any thoughts?

Edited by Froze were the Days
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12 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

If anything like that came off you could say good-bye to any chance tens of thousands of schools, and hundreds of thousands if not millions of business premises opening their doors. Shame it's the realm of fantasy.

That's temperatures at 6am, ie minimums. We had colder than that in December 2010.

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Just now, frosty ground said:

Which ramping bubble would that be?

Go back and have a read i think i'll stay grounded until cross model support inside 96hr to build heights far enough north after the slider to support an Easterly that's all.?

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11 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry to burst the ramping bubble but FV3 still says NO..

gfsnh-0-144 (5).png

gfsnh-0-162.png

Thats on the first notion..(still an open case!.)

The P- SAYS ITS GOING THE RITE WAY AS AN OVERALL SYNOP..

gfsnh-0-168 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Just now, booferking said:

Go back and have a read i think i'll stay grounded until cross model support inside 96hr to build heights far enough north after the slider to support an Easterly that's all.?

I have read it people are commenting on the run becasue that's what this thread is, not sure I've read a single its happening or nailed on post. No Ramping just commenting Plenty of realistic post regarding its chances to.

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I think the GEFS exploring various scenarios post-low dropping SE early next week. At T138 we can see the GEFS are strong with the sliding low:

gens_panel_est4.png  T180 gens_panel_kin6.png

However variations on a theme. By T180 that variation has created entropy and there is no dominant cluster(s)^^^

Its a case of taking one step at a time. We got the sliding low 1 and 2 (hopefully) and now we need a few runs to tighten up on what follows. With wedges looking to be the more likely solution to blocking then we can expect many changes, hopefully, all routes lead to cold and snow!

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