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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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20 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

 

Tuesday            image.thumb.gif.68a2fa6a20b468b17268ab568d09841e.gif image.thumb.gif.397ef1fe97564a1858128436b956513a.gif

 

Excuse my ignorance but all those precipitation charts you posted look poor for the bulk of England and Wales. I'm guessing the excitement this morning is for what may come after next week? 

Edit: Not trying to put a dampener on the thread, I'm loving the positivity this morning. Just was expecting a little more after reading through the posts this morning.

Edited by MidnightSnow
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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Things are looking interesting, tomorrow night: another one of those marginal lamppost-watching jobs, methinks?
image.thumb.png.d90e214ee431418fa03ddfed6e66dad5.png

nationwide or for select areas? 

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2 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

nationwide or for select areas? 

Good question, CC, but I think there might be too many variables (for me at least) involved: uppers would favour the east, I guess, but say little about possible evaporative cooling etc....Who knows??

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9 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but all those precipitation charts you posted look poor for the bulk of England and Wales. I'm guessing the excitement this morning is for what may come after next week? 

Edit: Not trying to put a dampener on the thread, I'm loving the positivity this morning. Just was expecting a little more after reading through the posts this morning.

Thats Just one op run on one GFS suite.  next to useless at this range.  The Ecm brings much more in the way of snow.   For a better idea best to use the Hi Res charts at 48hrs out.

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12 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

Excuse my ignorance but all those precipitation charts you posted look poor for the bulk of England and Wales. I'm guessing the excitement this morning is for what may come after next week? 

Edit: Not trying to put a dampener on the thread, I'm loving the positivity this morning. Just was expecting a little more after reading through the posts this morning.

An upgrade now on the 6z. But like everyone else has said, GFS precipitation charts are notoriously quite poor. Snow chances for all.

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The milder upper air not making contact with the wedges of heights around Iceland at T138:

0z gfseu-13-144.thumb.png.d656a1a6bb214878e9f869edeebc5475.png 06z gfseu-13-138.thumb.png.2d2fae3844b28683736db65187c2aa86.png

This blocks the amplification and more likely the ridge sinks. 

Another possible outcome...

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As per my post of just now, energy not quite clearing on the 06z at +138/144 and we don't get the cleaner link up.

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.a86a3c0ea3054e249bc70bee51d03e7f.png

Suspect it will end up fine though, just delayed? Still a cracking chart as well by the way.

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Stunning Ecm 00z ensemble mean..if you love cold!!??:cold-emoji:

EDM1-168.gif

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.GIF

Thanks for those Karl. That must be one of the best ensemble means I can remember seeing, since I became a member of this Forum, in January 2005.

Regards,

Tom.  :hi:

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2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

As per my post of just now, energy not quite clearing on the 06z at +138/144 and we don't get the cleaner link up.

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.a86a3c0ea3054e249bc70bee51d03e7f.png

Suspect it will end up fine though, just delayed? Still a cracking chart as well by the way.

Yes I agree, slightly delayed but looks like the core of the high developing at a higher latitude might mean deeper cold advected later? Another option on the table for next week. let’s see how it progresses... 

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6z looking JMAish lots of cold east.

Overall just variation of the theme. Just adding to that we have an undercut east with cold advancing west, could be a beast.

Edited by Snowman.
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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-192.png?6?6

Where is hat low that's forming over the Baltics going ?

gfs-5-192.png?6

It'll either give us a dumping, or in more typical fashion, will blow up into a deep low and cut off the cold flow - we've seen that before!

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1 minute ago, Johnp said:

It'll either give us a dumping, or in more typical fashion, will blow up into a deep low and cut off the cold flow - we've seen that before!

Just think of all that instabilaty , if it turns into a flow with the jet behind it won't cut of the cold as it's being pushed along with it.

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