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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

Posted Images

And before anyone says otherwise, that doesn’t produce snow according to the raw data away from some Irish hills and s welsh mountains (and that’s just a v small amount anyway) - day 9

Edited by bluearmy
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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m looking really hard for possible negative issues ....the reverse of what we usually do where we look really hard for any signs of cold ! 

Think we might be getting there at day 10 but by God its like pulling teeth trying to get cold to our shores..

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I’m hoping the ECM is in the warm side of the ENS or another roller coaster on here today, I didn’t expect a poorer set this morning but this is how it rolls I guess. Nothing confirmed till it’s T06 in the UK ?

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23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And before anyone says otherwise, that doesn’t produce snow according to the raw data away from some Irish hills and s welsh mountains (and that’s just a v small amount anyway) - day 9

But thats probably because that little shortwave is a little too far south so the precipitation only gets as far north as ireland and south wales!!push that further north and COULD give a dumping maybe?

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’m hoping the ECM is in the warm side of the ENS or another roller coaster on here today, I didn’t expect a poorer set this morning but this is how it rolls I guess. Nothing confirmed till it’s T06 in the UK ?

Neither did i Ali..

Not a good start to the day IMHO-

Ens will reveal more , and perhaps some strat charts,lets not forget Exter signposted later Jan so maybe its going to be a slow burner to a winter set up ?

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Neither did i Ali..

Not a good start to the day IMHO-

Ens will reveal more , and perhaps some strat charts,lets not forget Exter signposted later Jan so maybe its going to be a slow burner to a winter set up ?

The morning runs are always poorer or perceived to be.

As has been said a million times, they are just playing around with different options in FI. The models (especially GFS) have a habit of running with a solution for a few runs in FI, dropping it and then like the easter miracle resurrecting it in the nearer time scales again (usually around 160 - 180 hrs).

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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

The usual downbeat feeling around here.

Not quite in sync

Screenshot_20190109-073740_Chrome.jpg

GEFS look decent ?

Be nice if EC det was a mild outlier ?

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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The big question is are we actually going to see these great charts count down or will they hover around day 10?

hope we don’t get stuck on that big garden path again I really do.

we shall see over the next couple of days. Nothing shown for next week is set in stone far from in unfortunately 

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

The usual downbeat feeling around here.

Not quite in sync

Screenshot_20190109-073740_Chrome.jpg

I agree great looking ensemble. What is showing now looks brilliant compared to a few days ago. It’s an evolving situation and this is why most of us chose this hobby, chasing down charts and patterns that will bring us ALL THE SNOW! Looking forward to the 6z already. 

Enjoy it??

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean day 10-

image.thumb.png.b367ea07451099bd6de48327b6afb801.png

Looks good to me, an improvement on the 12z yesterday, im going to speculate det was one of the milder members..

Agree, much better than yesterday - must be some proper Northerlies in amoungst them 

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean day 10-

image.thumb.png.b367ea07451099bd6de48327b6afb801.png

Looks good to me, an improvement on the 12z yesterday, im going to speculate det was one of the milder members..

It is ?

A8A31A63-EDEA-414E-B4FF-FF5E6A49F28C.thumb.png.c20b1cfe7dba264756c102ff4972c084.png

Edited by karlos1983
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At the minute looking inside 10 days for cold to get to the UK is a no go. look what's going on over the pole the AO is crashing especially on the UKMO and ECM

When the change comes it will be quick, I've not seen as much confidence by so many respected forecasters and mid range models since November 2010!!!

Screenshot_20190109-075416.png

Screenshot_20190109-075445.png

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5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Does kind of feel like this again this morning looking at the operationals ….

Skeleton-at-keyboard.thumb.jpg.3affb8b8e9d5afc2d501c4b667b3a666.jpg

However, trying to inject some motivation in the downbeat mood following the ops, GEFS z500 mean and anomalies for heights and T850s looking on track beyond 20th, bear in mind the GEFS will smooth out the best members for heights and cold too.

21st Jan

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_49.thumb.png.c329b7546a21f1e003629f2c6b2a1b46.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_49.thumb.png.31dfe969d69312de9bb62efa03a2f1be.png

25th Jan

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.thumb.png.42ef2c5ad593348281c377553b870ef0.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_65.thumb.png.3f6ed66b6d248fbe8269cbe3d72c34b4.png

Also, 00z EC op was a mild outlier towards the end for London

eps_London.thumb.png.69e4fa13898b8a722b5a80d1c1e23461.png

 

HA that made me chuckle Nick ?

Yes i think a lot of us were feeling a bit like that but as you say, Ens guidance and GEFS mean looks good, there was a sigh of relief from me when i saw the mean coming out- and it is indeed an outlier later on..

I feel like a sine wave lol.

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Like the look of the UKMO . Better over the Arctic and upstream . We would like more northern and southern stream jet phasing upstream because this will help pull the PV lobe over Canada further nw and allow some ridging  to develop ahead of low pressure coming out of the ne USA.

The ECM is similar but a bit flatter , the GFS the flattest of the big 3 and continues that way to day ten where it scrapes a two minute Scandi high .

 

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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I’m looking really hard for possible negative issues ....the reverse of what we usually do where we look really hard for any signs of cold ! 

I see what you’re doing here & I agree it’s not a bad method to keep grounded. but it’s dangerous in here... a lot of members will take it as downgrades & it’s all bust..  ?

Edited by karlos1983
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