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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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How's that for starters from the GFS, UKMO and the ECM?

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.4565e5faa95f75684339690413101920.png

Trough disruption and diving SE through us close to a certainty. What happens next far from it. For balance, GEM shows it is still on a knife edge regards the follow on easterly.

gemnh-0-168.thumb.png.539c13daebcf3f07f36ea6df2258c7af.png

It shows the Atlantic ridging in behind is not enough on its own. We need stronger Griceland heights, courtesy of a clean break SE of the energy to allow Arctic high to be involved as well.The GEM has some running over the top which is what scuppers it.

Hoping the ECM Op and its better resolution has nailed it over the GEM Op solution.

Edited by s4lancia
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16 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Agreed, all roads point to promise on this morning’s models. Checking in on the MetO extended then, underwhelmed to read the output. Doesn’t seem to correlate with what we’re seeing here, especially for the south. Suggests a different pattern to that long fetch easterly. Irritating. 

Nothing is yet certain.

For some time it's been looking like around 21st was the date for a real change and that doesn't seem to be too far out. Slight delay as MJO passes through unfavourable phases but think this is a signal being largely overriden by the SSW downwelling. As the MJO moves towards phase 6 we see the signal for northern blocking to increase.

This is not the place to talk about Met Office forecasts, but given the uncertainty and their public duty, it is not surprising they do not ramp up prospects for cold, choosing instead to mention the possibility. Those who need to know will have been briefed of likelihoods and will plan accordingly. FWIW, if you are interested in seeing what goes through a forecaster's mind when looking at events, Google "nws discussion NY" and you can read their description of how they out together the forecast for the upcoming potential storm.

Edited by WhiteFox
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models are certainly very pleasing , but been here many many times were optimal cold models are shown to peak around this time scale onlt to start downgrading as we get closer to accurately modelling split energy off ESB

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So having just woke up and my usual rush to the phone to check the models was not greeted to the usual sinking feeling of downgrades, instead I was greeted to the feeling of loads of this.....

05E68413-A226-45BA-95D5-57BFEF055D0A.png

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Well can you believe it , what lovely morning . The models are brilliant this morning. No downgrades . 

In fact bloody upgrade ?B671D2D2-B37A-4C28-8528-564091646F97.thumb.png.c17f2b6f2d49009b2eda1a582a6ba1c3.png

PS - it’s also snowing here in north Hertfordshire. Winter has began ??

Great to see the 0zs playing ball for a change, if they upgrade through the day as is the case normally we're in for some corkers and with snow melt not so much an issue this time of year, could certainly get very interesting. 

However, if I were you, you might want to double check your window, having ran to window and being on northern hill, think you must be seeing things as here zilch ?

But accum charts from ECM showing almost whole of UK in on action at some point in next 10.

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

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Very happy with EC/GFS..

UKMO, not so sure, looks very very marginal for me , and not set up as nice as the other 2 at 144..

Don't want to spoil the mood which is lovely to see, Exeter have updated overnight and its a great read, just UKMO nagging in my mind.

When i say very happy with GFS/EC, i think i meant ecstatic!! ?

Edited by northwestsnow
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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with EC/GFS..

UKMO, not so sure, looks very very marginal for me , and not set up as nice as the other 2 at 144..

Don't want to spoil the mood which is lovely to see, Exeter have updated overnight and its a great read, just UKMO nagging in my mind.

Go back 24 hours mate, not sure your post will spoil the mood lol no comparison, fantastic output this morning. UKMO isn’t by any means a bad run either! It’s just not the best. 

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Great to see no downgrades - my reverse psychology worked!

Just be cautious everyone - we’ve seen cross model agreement with these setups only to see the wheels come off at T72. Granted though this time, we have a lot more in our favour.

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very happy with EC/GFS..

UKMO, not so sure, looks very very marginal for me , and not set up as nice as the other 2 at 144..

Don't want to spoil the mood which is lovely to see, Exeter have updated overnight and its a great read, just UKMO nagging in my mind.

When i say very happy with GFS/EC, i think i meant ecstatic!! ?

Was about to say, why so downbeat ?

Screenshot_20190117-073952_Chrome.jpg

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Go back 24 hours mate, not sure your post will spoil the mood lol no comparison, fantastic output this morning. UKMO isn’t by any means a bad run either! It’s just not the beAst. 

Corrected that typo for you...

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In terms of the upstream pattern over the USA and Canada .

Still uncertainty there day 5 onwards in relation to the speed and amplitude of several shortwaves which have originated in the Pacific.

NCEP commented that the latest GFS and GEFS are more progressive . This is why you don’t have the later fireworks because this effects where the PV goes .

The more progressive pattern pushes that further se , the ECM pulls the PV lobe further away .

 

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