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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

In terms of confidence we should be at the 75% mark for snow in the UK late Tues ( locale to be pinned )

& around 50-60% on the subsequent Easterly...

Any more westwards correction prediction Steve with regard to the cold air?

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

Posted Images

Anyway 18z GFS gets the basics right before flinging PV lobes all over the show (something like 4 fragments at one point) which flattens everything out temporarily.

Also I do not the GFS has finally given up on a stronger low for Saturday and looks like the ECM did a few days ago ..

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Clusters are good for a few reasons

1) the op is too Far East with the trough and smallest cluster at 8%.  Other 5 clusters are further west 

2)by day 8, the op cluster is the largest of three 

3) in the extended period, the control cluster (griceland ridge scenario) remains the largest of three options 

That is very good news all round - fits the desired mould exactly. 

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Hope it is OK to ask this - what is now the informed opinion about how well GFS is doing, what with the government shutdown?

Maybe it's performing perfectly alright I don't know.

Edited by Bruegelian
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20 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I would take a stab that the JMA daytime maxes at days 9/10 would be around -3/-4c for England...

If the JMA ever picked a time to verify it needs to be now!

I've been keeping a keen eye on the JMA too Steve, seems to me to have been the most consistent with the easterly theme, a bit extreme tonight but who knows, could be on the money?!?

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14 minutes ago, Bruegelian said:

Hope it is OK to ask this - what is now the informed opinion about how well GFS is doing, what with the government shutdown?

Maybe it's performing perfectly alright I don't know.

This question about US gov shutdown affecting GFS has been doing the rounds for several days and the general consensus is the claims are unfounded and it’s business as usual from GFS, i.e. weaker skill and highly volatile behaviour compared to the likes of ECMWF, UKMO and even GEM or JMA.

The EPS mean has generally been the best guidance for last few weeks for the evolving pattern of Atlantic ridge amplification  and Euro trough, GFS operational finally catching up now. Looking at day 15 EPS z500 mean and it looks like the Euro trough has staying power!

BA8326D4-163F-4ACA-AD32-477568307BCF.thumb.jpeg.2a93a7ec0815f8be80d65d893d5e3e89.jpeg

Edited by Nick F
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11 minutes ago, snowray said:

Anyone seen a chart like this before verifying? In recent years anyway?:shok:

Curtesy of the JMA.

J252-21.gif

J252-7.gif

People use the word "buried" too often - but that truly would bury many parts. Wont verify though ?

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I would love it to verify just to see the max/minima !

So - newbies out there.

T126 mean 18z- which will be 120 on the 00z is all but reliable timeframe.

126 Mean is more amplified & there is no escaping a snow event for Many 132-144..

212043AE-F578-4DEF-A6D3-0D33C7A3B2DC.thumb.png.861893f4351d38e6c2334a283ccbc707.png

Just a quick one steve if i may, if we can see this from the models why is it that the bbc website doesnt show anything like it? i mean if we can see it how come they dont etc.

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1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

Just a quick one steve if i may, if we can see this from the models why is it that the bbc website doesnt show anything like it? i mean if we can see it how come they dont etc.

They must have used the 0z ECM

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Just now, Catacol said:

People use the word "buried" too often - but that truly would bury many parts. Wont verify though ?

Famous last words Catacol?

Now who does that remind we of out of the weather presenters from the 1980's, I remember now, it was a windy Autumn in 1987, hint, hint.......??

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First the T162 chart nice easterly. 

Below is a picture of the last easterly on the second day of the easterly. 

Taken off my dash cam.

This projection of the easterly at T162 is quite potent .

And pictures below could become a scene across much of the country 

19012312_1618.gif

20180301_114534.jpg

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