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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

    Ahh c'mon..gfs getting the feel..

    Large lobe drain-..

    And the synops gain via waa..

    Look at the babys little eyes ??

    We are on border ..for some signiff/notable...

     

    gfsnh-0-138 (2).png

    gfsnh-0-138 (1).png

    Screenshot_2019-01-16-22-13-15.png

    Good spot with the “lobe” as you call it mate

    you called that a good few days ago

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    A good GFS run with a good dollop of snow away from the SE where the low closes off however there probably around 200 miles of variability for that low - in terms of location so no real concrete location yet-

    Post that Easterly building...

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Dear me  Snowed in on the 18z  a netweather special

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    Just now, shaky said:

    Crazy just crazy snowstorm charts from gfs!!most of the uk would get pounded!!

    Except south london

    but it’s coming

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    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Quite snowy mid range...

    126-574UK.thumb.gif.5000338bdc89cc1b7431bdcda55f6c26.gif132-574UK.thumb.gif.46070b9cae17a348afa8b7a6772474cb.gif138-574UK.thumb.gif.2db2ad376e69f22bfbb9c18c84993033.gif144-574UK.thumb.gif.7dd1d049d7c26c4fcfb56733eee1428e.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Just wow T192;

    image.thumb.jpg.85a084a4d5f4df3d4344acaf96bec308.jpg

    The point where it makes sense to swap posting NW view charts in favour to the closer Euro view - this is a great run, and well within the possible range of the extended, all in, super-ensemble. 

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m

    And as if by magic i have snow falling outside my door... winters not over, very pleased with the upgrades today and i do hope that we finally can settle down into watching all the good stuff tick down into t48 and we all have some fun and game. come on mother nature hit us with your full force.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Just wished it would be better uppers and hold its position and not sink.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Just wished it would be better uppers and hold its position and not sink.

    Uppers less important in an easterly and with embedded surface cold in the preceding days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Those asking about a scandi ridge as opposed to the predicted greeny ....... the recent trend to scandi ridge wasn’t an extended ens idea. It’s grown recently on the back of the east Atlantic height rise pushing northeast (and possibly behaviour of the arctic high which is tough to predict) 

    my thoughts are that a height rise seems to be an extension of the wedges that have been modelled but with the downwelling now showing in the trop,output, these are trending to Upper ridges ...... the Canadian vortex is too close to greeny to allow one to appear within the next ten days around Greenland  ..... hence more towards scandi. As the Canadian vortex sinks further into n America, so any ridge can retrogress towards Iceland and then Greenland  

    Basically if you were to look textbook coldspell for the UK up, that’s it right there!

    scandi—> Griceland—> Greeny :spiteful:

    2A5CBF10-6173-407C-9FAF-65F8E175F55A.thumb.png.71fc22f7bc1b9913dc8c281422174e47.png

    she’s ready and waiting !

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    JMA continues with its weather porn, -12c uppers in by D9.

    J216-21.gif

    J216-7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Those asking about a scandi ridge as opposed to the predicted greeny ....... the recent trend to scandi ridge wasn’t an extended ens idea. It’s grown recently on the back of the east Atlantic height rise pushing northeast (and possibly behaviour of the arctic high which is tough to predict) 

    my thoughts are that a height rise seems to be an extension of the wedges that have been modelled but with the downwelling now showing in the trop,output, these are trending to Upper ridges ...... the Canadian vortex is too close to greeny to allow one to appear within the next ten days around Greenland  ..... hence more towards scandi. As the Canadian vortex sinks further into n America, so any ridge can retrogress towards Iceland and then Greenland  

    Yep,mentioned this in my earlier post,"Scandi to Greenland",seems feesable

    good post by the way

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    JMA 228 - Vortex lobe touching the SE !!!

    Deep deep cold -

    30B62645-2F9E-4ADA-B764-EFED29523981.thumb.png.dc7647609711c3f936adb5f5a9095b84.png

    That’s what I’ve been waiting for . What’s the uppers Steve??

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

    Uppers less important in an easterly and with embedded surface cold in the preceding days.

    No you need steep lapse rates not just from surface to 850 but further up than that as well in order to create convection - you don't need  -15c like march but -10 would be needed together with 520-530 (ish 500mb heights, preferably -12c

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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