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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    ICON probably coming more in line with the rest of the Euro models which is a further positive on a day of upgrades.

    iconeu-0-120.png?16-18

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Looks like ukmo now if not better!!

    how do you get that model? my French not great, found Icon on meteociel, but not pressure charts

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Now the Icon looks very nice at 120hrs.  Shame it's stopping there!  For comparison, Icon at 120, GFS 126 and ECM / UKMO at 120. All pretty similar, which is your favourite (I'm loving the Icon personally!)

    Icon image.thumb.png.b0d0ecc559fb581982a94d29a9caea2e.png GFS image.thumb.png.d30513ea658c9c794ff596078cf87ed8.png ECM image.thumb.png.96e48d57a335bbd84a47ed3e20b9f9db.png UKMO image.thumb.png.0484ced8bed4f3aa07151448ed9ef8ef.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Somebody mentioned a while back that the models would start to produce some Stella runs around the middle of the month. Maybe that’s what will start to happen.

    Recently however, the 00z runs have felt like a hangover brought on by drinking too much Stella!

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
    1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

    I just hope gfs ecm are on the right track because bbc long range are not interested..

     

    They’ll be using the 0z data. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    I just hope gfs ecm are on the right track because bbc long range are not interested..

    3B4A80B6-08CE-4075-A6ED-44F538303266.png

    BBC long range no doubt based on the poor 00z runs from earlier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    I just hope gfs ecm are on the right track because bbc long range are not interested..

    3B4A80B6-08CE-4075-A6ED-44F538303266.png

    Watching that BBC outlook, they appeared to be going off this morning's model updates, so I wouldn't worry about it.

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    BBC long range no doubt based on the poor 00z runs from earlier.

    Doubt it. They aren't as primitive with regards to available data as we are.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    8 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Oh and icon gives 5cms of snow for the midlands friday night saturday morning!!happy dayz!!higher totals further north!!

    seems to be stuck on 120

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    seems to be stuck on 120

    Only goes out to 120 hrs on the 06z and 18z,goes out to 180 hrs on the 00z and 12z.

    hope that helps.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Only goes out to 120 hrs on the 06z and 18z,goes out to 180 hrs on the 00z and 12z.

    hope that helps.

    cool, only just viewed it really tonight

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    11 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    It’s been obvious for a very long time that they don’t use the latest data. I’d rather get a forecast from the posters in this thread than the BBC, such has been the deterioration since they ditched the Met Office.

    All anecdotal. I've been following both the BBC and the Metoffice objectively and they have both been more or less on a par. The outcome is far from unequivocal, and there remains huge doubt in the events leading upto and beyond Wednesday as a result of that depression exploding as it leaves the US Saturday. The temperature gradient between the cold and warm moist air is not an outcome easily deciphered pre Sat/Sun. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Good summary as usual @Catacol ?

    It's a strange time really; there's a lot of agreement among those using tropical and stratospheric drivers on where we really should be heading overall during the coming fortnight (wedge highs emerging next week and then evolving toward a block in the Greenland-Iceland vicinity), but model confidence has rarely been lower.

    Possibly this is a result of the simultaneous occurrence of a stratospheric influence that's not usually modelled very well, a tropical influence that they tend to take a while to get to grips with, and a split jet situation over N. America which also tends to cause them problems. A triple-whammy of uncertainty amplifiers! ?

    So... if you want to stay stable of mind, best to expect no particular outcome to appear in the models with each new set of runs until we see at least 4 in a row follow roughly the same lines.

     

    For what it's worth here's the ultimate feasible outcome for cold conditions: 

    1st stage sees regional stratospheric influence works alongside the Euro trough to move some really deep cold over to the UK from the E via NE (like the ECM 12z of today, but cleaner E flow across the UK).

    2nd sees the door open for the blocking high to retrogress to our near-NW while the stratospheric downwell raises heights Greenland-Bering, with further deep cold journeying our way fast enough to cut off the milder air that otherwise circulates around to us in the style of the ECM 12z of yesterday.

     

    Probability of that? I'd guess about 5%... but I expect that even just halfway toward it would still be memorable for at least some of us!

    Edited by Singularity
    Only Human After All
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM ensembles watch : I thought I'd pick D10 (26th January), as it looks unclear from the mean chart. Indeed, studying the individual members, it is very unclear, and the mean doesn't really represent as there's such a big split between a. runs that do not let the Atlantic in (generally easterly or northerly), b. runs where the Atlantic has got through (westerly / south westerly), and c. runs where the Atlantic is disrupting as it reaches the UK, generally maintaining cold but not exclusively. The cold options just about have the lead but enough milder runs for there to be good doubt. I counted as follows for D10 (totally imo)

    Runs probably cold enough for snow: 28

    Runs probably not cold enough : 17

    Borderline : 6

    What with the general ups and downs of the past few ensemble sets, I think it's too hard to call extended period at the moment, except that the colder synoptics maintain the "lead" ?

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    14 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    If there is a negative at the moment it is the growing trend away from a slider and instead a more standard low pressure scenario on a SE track, and this means we want this system as far west as we can get it in order for the coldest and driest uppers over the continent to be pulled in over as much of the country as possible. Pressure out east is not high enough it would seem to give us a Feb96 disruption scenario (though time still there for changes on that) so this initial surge may bring very marginal conditions with it. 

    Tues then the first chance for a decent event - but what next? At the moment that is very uncertain - and while the diving trough scenario has looked odds on for many days now what follows is still veiled. GFS tonight is by far the better for snow chances; ECM has gone for a Scandy high scenario with mix of undercut from the east and warmer feed in from the SW creating quite a contrast across the country I'd think....but it just doesn't look right to me. If the strange squiggly pattern in and around the S and W of the UK ends up anything like this then I'll eat my hat.

    ECM1-240we.thumb.gif.7ce3b6a669bbbc9b5a64531d9c2a84e3.gif

     

     

    A similar situation occurred in Jan 2013 (just before the SSW?)

    image.thumb.png.d6b48fb9f527d1698cea4df83cb68585.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    1 minute ago, icykev said:

    Ps

    What is the best model in your honest opinion? Thanks

    WMC Moscow is a must every day

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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