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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    Is there any reason for the models to flip over night 

    We now have cross model agreement at t144 from ukm gfs and ecm 

    the chances must be quite low I would of imagined

    Ask @That ECM that ?‍♂️ Try +48! All hell broke loose!

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    Is there any reason for the models to flip over night 

    We now have cross model agreement at t144 from ukm gfs and ecm 

    the chances must be quite low I would of imagined

    We need one more day of outputs just to make sure we’ll get the favourable  trough disruption .

    Theres still uncertainties with how far east the pattern will get and where any snow boundary will be . 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Before the graphs come out, the eps control is bloody freezing with a persistent easterly 

    Yep = spotted that Nick ?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, knocker said:

    Well there's nowt simple about the current pattern. The ext EPS anomalies this evening have a highly amplified upstream with the east Pacific/Alaskan ridge and Vortex trough combination with the latter slipping a tad south. Thus still very strong upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard bound across the Atlantic to the European trough around some ridging by the subtropical high pressure. The complication is the Iceland ridge into eastern Greenland which diverts some of the energy whirch could introduce arctic air into the mix vis the surface analysis in the vicinity of the UK. Ergo portending cold and unsettled nut the degree of both pending resolution from the det runs

    9-14.thumb.png.6ce39065f96cf81d8ed5e2f3026c21d3.png

    The means continue to be fairly consistent but the number of clusters and spreads say that it probably isn’t 

    deducing anything is fraught with danger - yesterday saw the only 2 fairly consistent ec ops we’ve seen for ages. Where this morning we saw an upper trough, this evening we see an upper ridge  ........ we seem to have agreement that the trough will drop next tues/wed but you cannot be sure if that will be the whole system (creating a strong euro circulation) or a trough extension (delivering a fairly weak euro trough). 

    Whilst most want some certainty, I expect there are still plenty of twists and turns on this pattern ........hopefully we will get some consistency by the end of the week 

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Great to see the tight knit ECM up until next week, brrr.

    graphe_ens3 (2).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    A run of poor 00Z's recently, seems weird though

     

    Expect more swings back and forth over the next few days, but still need to see the AZH retreat and a serious sign of upper level heights developing otherwise it's more HBK than HLB

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

     

    Expect more swings back and forth over the next few days, but still need to see the AZH retreat and a serious sign of upper level heights developing otherwise it's more HBK than HLB

    quoted wrong member????????????

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
    19 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

    Is there any reason for the models to flip over night 

    We now have cross model agreement at t144 from ukm gfs and ecm 

    the chances must be quite low I would of imagined

    Apart from the fact that the models have been playing the hilarious 00Zs downgrade 12Zs upgrade game for quite some time now, yes there are good reasons why this could flip back.

    Firstly the 12z are good, very good. Therefore one could argue that, yes whilst there is room for further improvement, there is probably greater room for downgrades on the next suite. 00Zs or otherwise.

    A potential Easterly evolving at +144 and in the wake of an SSW?  Highly unlikely to be smooth sailing unfortunately. Even if this ends up being broadly right, expect twists and turns galore over the next few days. Exactly what was to be expected though. 

    Edited by s4lancia
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    I always used to say that following an SSW that if downwelling occurred then it is a bit like a wheel of fortune spinning around the arctic where any block will set up. Never has that felt more right than following this SSW.

    With weeks of downwelling still likely to occur, don’t let any run entice you in either way - always look at the bigger picture. Quite often you will see an output react to some new data and the pendulum swings far too much in the opposite direction, then when the renewed data is inputted for the next run the pendulum swings back again. Especially after an SSW.

    Never had you down as a swinger but hope you are still swinging the way you predicted.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

    Never had you down as a swinger but hope you are still swinging the way you predicted.

    Lol. Most definitely 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Apropos of nothing, the eps probability map shows the likelihood of slp > 1030 mb at day 10 to be where ???.

     

    answer

     

    753D6458-617A-4EEC-BDFC-F2DC6F19E372.thumb.jpeg.dec93e58e52d4733ac2d7fb512d8068a.jpeg

     

    Operational would see to be too far north with the surface high if it was to become a trend .... at least we see up to 20% into scandi ... that’s something to work from ......

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: coldie
  • Location: Reading
    2 hours ago, snowray said:

    ??? Battleground, undercut, followed by a very cold easterly, blinking hell, -20c uppers just to our east! ? 

    Lots of snow for most of us coming up if this were to verify!:clap:

     

    Just hope the 00z runs can follow suite for once!?

     

    ECM1-240.gif

    ECM0-240.gif

    Models have been so volatile it'll be nice just to see the pub run follow suite ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    The edited ens chart I posted on here 3 days ago, up against today's 12z. Not a billion miles off at all. Terriific looking flatline all the way until Feb.

    130119-t850Dorset.thumb.png.c6ae35a2908c9b171f24c09dc3c18b04.png12z-t850Dorset-edit.thumb.png.f3968b62462a7e62dd128752e4004797.png

    Yes, the output over the past few suites have shown the mean to be higher than this but this is the most recent data and as such closest to the times highlighted.

     

    Edited by s4lancia
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    4 minutes ago, Dacyfo said:

    Models have been so volatile it'll be nice just to see the pub run follow suite ?

    I know, it would be nice to get some consistency for cold from now on, I'd love to see 18z and more importantly them nasty 00z runs start to turn up some stela runs.:oldsmile:

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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