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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Good to see that winter is back on after being over just 12 hours ago. You’d think people would learn not to post knee jerk reactions, but hey ho.

Clearly much to be resolved later next week but it’s also clear that an easterly of some sort is on the table. The seasonal models and various signals are all promising for a quite prolonged period of generally below average temperatures, meaning the risk of some snow at times, and the possibility of more significant cold late Jan/early Feb. The daily models will just take time to resolve things and one op run will not make or break winter.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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A couple of posts have been hidden as off topic.

Please keep to model discussions please all.Emotional one liners and general chat are for the other threads and will likely disappear.

Everyone's help keeping the thread on track in this busy and interesting time would be much appreciated.

Thanks all. 

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Just as the models were becoming more consistent in a more zonal picture developing, the brakes have been pulled on the North Atlantic somewhat. For the 25th of January there is a big shift to cold anticyclonic. Some following a cold easterly...

image.thumb.png.be388e2441c3d11d4839da65a2b54a32.png

This seems to have a butterfly effect on later output with more cold runs appearing later on 

image.thumb.png.fdc25cfd9af61cdf22c69fee0a7ee6e4.png

Amazing after all this time we don't have any sort of picture for January 25th yet. Perhaps the GFS was hungover this morning. ECM also a substantial improvement.

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Just took a look at the ensembles for leicester!!temps dont get any higher than 2 or 3 degrees and stay below 0 every night till the end of the run!!what a set of runs!!i can only imagine had that ecm been 200 miles further this place would av exploded!!and to top it off there is now a chance of snow this friday for parts of England thanks to a colder undercut from the east!

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like the emotional rollercoaster is in full swing for coldies !

After the helpline being over run in the morning I’ve laid off the staff at least until tomorrow !

Some nice nice upgrades this evening . The ECM though takes a little longer to get there with less trough disruption at day 6 .

This is the part for coldies that is most nerve wracking . The tasty set ups aren’t stuck at day ten , you can almost smell the snow !

If we can just get over that 6 day hurdle intact then even I might have a mini ramp !

What do we ideally need to happen regarding developments over USA Nick?

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Looks like there is *some* support for height rises to the North for day 6 though it's rather blended out, probably another night of many clusters with no real majority for a particular signal either way

1768580932_Screenshot2019-01-16at19_37_08.thumb.png.a5585a57e1c84f681bd7032e1d87a7de.png

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11 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

What do we ideally need to happen regarding developments over USA Nick?

Well extra insurance is that ne US low stays deep and runs a bit further inland between day 4 and 6 . You want that heading as close to the PV lobe over ne Canada.

There is another difference of opinion between the ECM and the GFS and UKMO at day 6.

The ECM unusually is the flattest with the next Pacific originating shortwave further upstream but it compensates by having that build of pressure to the ne .

In terms of snow chances although some PM air comes se , you want the UK to remain on the eastern side of shortwave energy moving se because the lower dew points will be pulled nw from mainland Europe to meet the precip .

Edited by nick sussex
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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Looks like there is *some* support for height rises to the North for day 6 though it's rather blended out, probably another night of many clusters with no real majority for a particular signal either way

1768580932_Screenshot2019-01-16at19_37_08.thumb.png.a5585a57e1c84f681bd7032e1d87a7de.png

Day 6 is only weak heights anyway- its day 7 onwards !

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36 minutes ago, Johnp said:

After today's events, are you really worrying about upstream after day 10??

Who said I was worrying?...hypothetically talking here if we did get anywhere near that synoptic what would happen thereafter - would that undercut, I know a slight negative tilt to the high which would help but that would be a slow affair (and a dumping for somebody to the north west/Scotland maybe).

Anyway I wonder how long these difference between the 0z and 12 runs will continue?

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Currently the UKMO is best at day 6. It has the pattern furthest west . That looks like snow on the eastern and ne flank of the shallow low .

The GFS looks a touch too far east  , and the ECM has too deeper a low and not much trough disruption at that time and too far east.

But think of any snow at this point as a bonus . The main issue  is that we get any low to the se and see pressure building to the n ne over the top . More snow chances will come if we can get to that point .

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UK & European mean is great @168 - not quite JMA stylee but work in progress

Plenty of snow on the sliders

8FE6EE5F-C503-4E48-BC5C-625E48BAEDD3.thumb.png.a86f0d32389eb4d7eaa8372f0278a4c7.png276EA334-DB70-4E49-9F84-23B1E6EA4D94.thumb.png.b79671582173ae977d05fccf24946a26.png

Was hoping for a bit better than that tbh, the GEFS 168 mean is now actually better than the ECM mean after being dyer at one stage.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UK & European mean is great @168 - not quite JMA stylee but work in progress

Plenty of snow on the sliders

8FE6EE5F-C503-4E48-BC5C-625E48BAEDD3.thumb.png.a86f0d32389eb4d7eaa8372f0278a4c7.png276EA334-DB70-4E49-9F84-23B1E6EA4D94.thumb.png.b79671582173ae977d05fccf24946a26.png

The similarities are very much there Steve, just ECM takes longer...but move the very same way.  I remember Fergie saying how JMA is a model taken seriously by MetO......it’s a very good and strong 12 z suite today imo

 

BFTP

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