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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Looks like there is *some* support for height rises to the North for day 6 though it's rather blended out, probably another night of many clusters with no real majority for a particular signal either way

    1768580932_Screenshot2019-01-16at19_37_08.thumb.png.a5585a57e1c84f681bd7032e1d87a7de.png

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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    Posted
  • Location: Ellon 70m
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Ellon 70m
    41 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    If I was being picky I’d like the scandi Heights cantered a bit further south. Just a bit! 

    oh no you dont! lol... leave it just as it is. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    11 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    What do we ideally need to happen regarding developments over USA Nick?

    Well extra insurance is that ne US low stays deep and runs a bit further inland between day 4 and 6 . You want that heading as close to the PV lobe over ne Canada.

    There is another difference of opinion between the ECM and the GFS and UKMO at day 6.

    The ECM unusually is the flattest with the next Pacific originating shortwave further upstream but it compensates by having that build of pressure to the ne .

    In terms of snow chances although some PM air comes se , you want the UK to remain on the eastern side of shortwave energy moving se because the lower dew points will be pulled nw from mainland Europe to meet the precip .

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    Looks like there is *some* support for height rises to the North for day 6 though it's rather blended out, probably another night of many clusters with no real majority for a particular signal either way

    1768580932_Screenshot2019-01-16at19_37_08.thumb.png.a5585a57e1c84f681bd7032e1d87a7de.png

    Day 6 is only weak heights anyway- its day 7 onwards !

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    36 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    After today's events, are you really worrying about upstream after day 10??

    Who said I was worrying?...hypothetically talking here if we did get anywhere near that synoptic what would happen thereafter - would that undercut, I know a slight negative tilt to the high which would help but that would be a slow affair (and a dumping for somebody to the north west/Scotland maybe).

    Anyway I wonder how long these difference between the 0z and 12 runs will continue?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Currently the UKMO is best at day 6. It has the pattern furthest west . That looks like snow on the eastern and ne flank of the shallow low .

    The GFS looks a touch too far east  , and the ECM has too deeper a low and not much trough disruption at that time and too far east.

    But think of any snow at this point as a bonus . The main issue  is that we get any low to the se and see pressure building to the n ne over the top . More snow chances will come if we can get to that point .

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    UK & European mean is great @168 - not quite JMA stylee but work in progress

    Plenty of snow on the sliders

    8FE6EE5F-C503-4E48-BC5C-625E48BAEDD3.thumb.png.a86f0d32389eb4d7eaa8372f0278a4c7.png276EA334-DB70-4E49-9F84-23B1E6EA4D94.thumb.png.b79671582173ae977d05fccf24946a26.png

    Was hoping for a bit better than that tbh, the GEFS 168 mean is now actually better than the ECM mean after being dyer at one stage.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    240 mean

    Expect some deep sub -10s for Debilt tonight

    B8553DA6-CFCD-4840-923B-5DF208D02D5F.thumb.jpeg.3bf1ccdb9e3e49ddbd74bea41116a334.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    UK & European mean is great @168 - not quite JMA stylee but work in progress

    Plenty of snow on the sliders

    8FE6EE5F-C503-4E48-BC5C-625E48BAEDD3.thumb.png.a86f0d32389eb4d7eaa8372f0278a4c7.png276EA334-DB70-4E49-9F84-23B1E6EA4D94.thumb.png.b79671582173ae977d05fccf24946a26.png

    The similarities are very much there Steve, just ECM takes longer...but move the very same way.  I remember Fergie saying how JMA is a model taken seriously by MetO......it’s a very good and strong 12 z suite today imo

     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Aye, can't be too far east, less cold air arriving on western side of low, milder NW winds, snow to the east off SE winds, like this day, it tracked too far east

    archives-2013-1-14-12-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=6

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&amp;ech=384&amp;mode=2

    all  i say  with all the doom on here 12 hours  ago now the gfs  has  come back with  its happy  face for  cold  lovers   will i dare look at it  the  morning!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk

    Please - this is not the thread for banter. Any more will be moved. Thank you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton
    2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

    why did you post those 2 rubbish charts?

    Is that better 

    52BD6B6C-AE0E-49E7-89EC-9F4C42E9A3E8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    21 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Mate once i see a downgrade  the rest of my day then drags!!again i totally agree with you its just ridiculous?!!but tonight is one of the better nights!!

    A run of poor 00Z's recently, seems weird though

    Edited by Blessed Weather
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    Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

    Is there any reason for the models to flip over night 

    We now have cross model agreement at t144 from ukm gfs and ecm 

    the chances must be quite low I would of imagined

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Well it might be IMBY but it`s my mums Birthday with this chart, little boom here...

     

    gfs-2-162.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    192 ECM Sloppy but great

    450B1914-8D6C-43E8-9511-954983314CEB.thumb.png.90b39279e6f6912d57897905211ca388.png

    Note the 1987 profiles over scandi

     

    The 1987 profiles without the 1987 European temps; as an example, temperatures in Finland were ominously low at -35c in the build up to that momentous event for the UK. Further east, Siberia was -76f. No such chilly temps on the continent this time around. 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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