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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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As my inactivity on here would suggest and for a fair few others two, I don't see anything over the horizon yet apart from typical uk winter weather, nothing special. 

The conclusion to be taken from the charts in a semi-reliable timeframe at the moment is cold shots from a north/north west/west source, interspersed with milder wetter interludes.

What we are all looking for is major blocking over greenland/scandinavia with deep cold advected over our shaws.. Only the ECM comes close to that and my got feeling will be a backtrack on the next ECM output. Hope I'm wrong and the ECM produces another beauty with gfs following behind but I really can't see it.

Not saying we won't see stellar charts in the future but, for now it's still a waiting game!

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Arghhhhhh !!

 

I posted last night how it would be nice to go to work in a good mood for a change...00z continue their miserable output! Area to watch is 144 that low exiting Canada needs to head ne and not east past southern Greenland....check out differences between ukmo this morning and ecm last night...

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-5.png

ECMOPEU12_168_1-1.png

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3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Disappointing to say the very least 

I was really hoping this morning would be the beginning of some stellar charts- of course EC may stick to its guns, after viewing GFS(GEFS) ICON and UKMO its hard to believe it will..

We will find out very soon!

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13 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Arghhhhhh !!

 

I posted last night how it would be nice to go to work in a good mood for a change...00z continue their miserable output! Area to watch is 144 that low exiting Canada needs to head ne and not east past southern Greenland....check out differences between ukmo this morning and ecm last night...

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-5.png

ECMOPEU12_168_1-1.png

Always the same though, alarm goes off at 5am and the first thing I reach for is my phone half expecting to see downgrades and without fail there always is but always things upgrade again through the day  and gradual come the evening runs everything looks ok again... 

Hope today is the same and that the ECM holds firm .. . Soon find out.. 

Edited by The BEAST From The East
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Sometime at the beginning of this meteorological winter I have seen a link to a video - presentation by Ed Berry (GSDM). GSDM synoptic modeling seem to be the subseasonal forecasting tool that most respected meteorologists/posters use. No if you would watch that video he said somewhere in the early part that NAO is impossible to forecast beyond week 2.

Also you would have seen that despite some of the bullish seasonal forecasts and long range models, you just HAVE to take this in to consideration - the volatility of the forecast on NAO region. On the other side unfortunately for UK it is the NAO that most of the time dictates weather cold and snow get here

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ECM 144- not as good as last night's but better than the others... Pretty much sums it up. Depends what that low off the ESB does now. Not as much N curvature on it as the 12z

Edited by CreweCold

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144...not as good ridge, low pressure heading east 🤐

 

 

ECMOPEU00_144_1-2.png

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4 minutes ago, Northumberland snowman said:

These are not looking good for a cold outbreak. Lots of ramping on here last night after one ecm run. Discount the gfs at your peril.372578019_Screenshot_20190116-062733_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.7f37010fc25618efccfb8c85a6f70159.jpg

All that tells me is the ridiculous amount of uncertainty for next week's weather, low pressure track.... We're still looking at colder weather becoming established by the end of the month and into February as a longer term trend. Next week doesn't look as snowy as it could have been but the output is still encouraging in broader terms, blocking, etc.

Edited by Liima

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The difference between ECM and GFS over the Arctic is hugee for 144 hours

ECH1-144.GIFgfsnh-0-144.png

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9 minutes ago, Liima said:

All that tells me is the ridiculous amount of uncertainty for next week's weather, low pressure track.... We're still looking at colder weather becoming established by the end of the month and into February as a longer term trend. Next week doesn't look as snowy as it could have been but the output is still encouraging in broader terms, blocking, etc.

Yes GFS no idea after day 5

graphe3_1000_264_48___.gif

ECM and UKMO at144z similar and ECM 168z

 

ECM1-144 (1).gif

UW144-21.gif

ECM1-168.gif

It is going cold despite the drama in here

Edited by winterof79

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ECM 168 Similar to GFSp only better upstream and sends a little less energy NE

ECH1-168.GIF?16-12

Edited by Mucka

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What is going on with 0z runs this question needs answering! Why does 0z runs always backtrack only for this to improve throughout the day? Is it actually programmed into the models? Is the 0z run actually the most reliable run or the 12z? Think this needs looking into cos I'm getting the feeling 0z is more reliable based on the fact were always chasing phantom eastilies in 12z runs. 

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM 168 Similar to GFSp only better upstream and sends a little less energy NE

ECH1-168.GIF?16-12

Its a big big backtrack im afraid..

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192-ECM.... Nice one (and yes, I'm being sarcastic there) 

Where's Daniel BTW? Would be interested in his thoughts. 

Edited by CreweCold

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Yep, a definite move towards last night's gfs...positives, still cold, disruptive trough over the UK, very cold to the east with snow risk for central and eastern areas.

ECMOPEU00_168_1-2.png

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4 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

What is going on with 0z runs this question needs answering! Why does 0z runs always backtrack only for this to improve throughout the day? Is it actually programmed into the models? Is the 0z run actually the most reliable run or the 12z? Think this needs looking into cos I'm getting the feeling 0z is more reliable based on the fact were always chasing phantom eastilies in 12z runs. 

what do you mean by improve throughout the day? we don’t know what set are correct so the morning runs may be on the money. Or do you mean improve as in ‘the coldest’ solution? Remember almost people prefer mild so it could be seen as the opposite 

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EC nearly puts us back where we've been for weeks,under high pressure!!! Fgs

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3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yep, a definite move towards last night's gfs...positives, still cold, disruptive trough over the UK, very cold to the east with snow risk for central and eastern areas.

ECMOPEU00_168_1-2.png

Yes if it's not showing a beast this place is like a kindergarten. Plenty of snow chances starting this weekend.

ECH1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

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Reminds me of a couple of years ago, maybe 3 when the ec46 relentlessly promised winter wonderland that never materialised. This could be ecm's worst hour. 

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The ec ops yesterday looked overlooked on the WAA off the esb and this morning, unfortunately for chances of a quick cut off n Atlantic high,  backs that up ... none of the models are in agreement and unsurprisingly, the model itself backs away ....it remains in line with its eps mean 

Edited by bluearmy

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After years of watching models did anyone really expect the ECM not to back track? The GFS is a worthy model and compliments (balances) the ECM very well.

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The ECM backtracks but still looks nothing like the GFS, still a lot of uncertainty but can't help feeling deflated

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