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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Taking bare face values..

Ie -12z ens[email protected] @Aberdeen

Lets await and compare the 2 sets!!.

Already when outed a large scale difference is a worthy punt...via 850hpa!!

#we await...

Watch mean and-members!!!!

MT8_London_ens (12).png

MT8_Aberdeen_ens (1).png

Edited by tight isobar

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Just now, Johnp said:

Stunning extended JMA

JE252-21_cdk9.GIF

WOWZERS !!!

Thats a cracking chart!!

🙂

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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Stunning extended JMA

JE252-21_cdk9.GIF

Not too dissimilar to the the ECM. Just that the high pressure to our north is a bit further east. Better easterly flow as a result.

GFS looking rather isolated, once again.

Edited by MattStoke

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Good to see some very good charts from different models cropping up in the 7-8 day range. Can we finally break the poor run of the 00z suites? Fed up with starting my day in a bad mood! 😂😂

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Well the upper high has finally got going and developing a ridge, but there is an utter dearth of cold air due to the upper low that lingers near our shores and mixes out any cold we do get. Also the pattern may start to flatten upstream again by 312hrs and so any cold that does make it may not last that long.

Fairly poor GFS 18z all things considered, especially given how strong the arctic high becomes.

Edited by kold weather

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I know it's deep in Fl but this chart is crazy, what's the AO -4,-5,  models picking up the tropospheric response to the SSW it's going to get lively in here

Screenshot_20190115-225250.png

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5 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

The JMA is the beast in all its glory

Screenshot_20190115-224814.png

Screenshot_20190115-224828.png

JMA got the right idea. Stunning chart . 👍

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8 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Good to see some very good charts from different models cropping up in the 7-8 day range. Can we finally break the poor run of the 00z suites? Fed up with starting my day in a bad mood! 😂😂

i know! just for once dammit 😖😖

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I think we are firmly on course here and the GFS transition is underway as of this evening. It all depends on the modelling of the jet and that low pressure coming out of North America between 144 and 168. I'll stick with ECM consistency but that JMA run is similarly awesome. And there is a lot of other evidence a corner has finally been turned in the long hunt for a substantial pattern change.

All good as of now.👍

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I know it’s at T324 but that chart is just nuts . 

D215CAB2-5CB8-49CC-963F-F8EED969F432.png

Wow...all in all a good day looking at the models. some epic charts have been churned out, they may well be gone by the morning but they will return in the evening. im now 100% certain that the UK is about to be plunged into an epic winter spell that will live long in the memory and will be the focus point for winters to come, no more 1947 no more 1963 no more Jan 87.. it will be Jan/Feb/March 2019...i say bring it on give us all the snow we crave but also give us enough notice so we can go get bread an milk before the shops run out.. mon the snow

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

JMA got the right idea. Stunning chart . 👍

It had pretty good idea last night as well.  Signals for major cold spell mounting today, that's my impression anyway! 

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Just want to add don't expect the GEFS to suddenly flip to that of the ECM solution type, IF the ECM is correct the GEFS will take a little bit longer to get on board. 

Other than that, best day out of all the recent days in terms of cold prospects, we actually have sufficient blocking being shown on runs and not even that far into the future either, just pray for the UKMO to be the EC's bed tomorrow morning!

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Decent support on the clusters for the negative tilted trough off the esb although the op cluster has the ridge bit further east 

also, in the midst of the extended entropy of 6 clusters, the two largest options (>50%) end up with greeny heights over 552 dam although kriss will be worrying about west based neg NAO’s, particularly on one of them 

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1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Just want to add don't expect the GEFS to suddenly flip to that of the ECM solution type, IF the ECM is correct the GEFS will take a little bit longer to get on board. 

Other than that, best day out of all the recent days in terms of cold prospects, we actually have sufficient blocking being shown on runs and not even that far into the future either, just pray for the UKMO to be the EC's bed tomorrow morning!

Slightly - only very slightly mind you, better amplification on the 18z at 144, but that could make a big difference come 216 with an ens suite.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It had pretty good idea last night as well.  Signals for major cold spell mounting today, that's my impression anyway! 

Yes Mike it’s picked up the pace today big time . It’s heading one way , the cold way . Praying that we’re still heading the right way in the morning . 

Night All 

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6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Just want to add don't expect the GEFS to suddenly flip to that of the ECM solution type, IF the ECM is correct the GEFS will take a little bit longer to get on board. 

Other than that, best day out of all the recent days in terms of cold prospects, we actually have sufficient blocking being shown on runs and not even that far into the future either, just pray for the UKMO to be the EC's bed tomorrow morning!

The gefs.

Should indeed flip or align!!.

The operational..will likely be the lag-failing evolution..

In such dramatics/dynamics..The supporting datas..will be the game changer..

Not a 100%- but the starting pointer.

With a quick jump and resolve via there op-suite!!..soon after!...

Edited by tight isobar

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ECM ens - one straggler nearly hits -16c uppers for my area in the extended!!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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46 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

WAA over West Greenland rather than mid Greenland. We know what that leads to...

Winter storm coming out the US Plains and deepening up through eastern US seaboard gonna provide some decent WAA toward Greenland over the weekend and into early next week  - this storm could have implications too for the way the low dives SE from Iceland toward NW Europe next week - perhaps why it's looking messy with trough disruption and how strong ridging will be to our NW.

gfsgif.thumb.gif.1317dffa7906e630fad270db81f83060.gif

Edited by Nick F

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECM ens - one straggler nearly hits -16c uppers for my area in the extended!!!

Straggler ?? That’s the trend setter feb . 😉

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23 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the upper high has finally got going and developing a ridge, but there is an utter dearth of cold air due to the upper low that lingers near our shores and mixes out any cold we do get. Also the pattern may start to flatten upstream again by 312hrs and so any cold that does make it may not last that long.

Fairly poor GFS 18z all things considered, especially given how strong the arctic high becomes.

I'd say give it a chance. By this time tomorow expect big upgrades to gfs output as it finally catches up with stra and trop events 

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1 minute ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Very consistent mean from gfs and ecm at 144! 🙂

 

 

Unfortunately the GEFS have stuck at 144 though.

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