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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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You got to laugh. ECM at T240 looks like GFS at T384. I guess that's a case of a slow catch up eh? Both lala land. Anyway we still waiting for what is going to happen on Friday.

Edited by The PIT

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That weather would do me fine, IC - but who are these 'GFS lovers' to whom you so fondly refer? Those who don't accept 'the GFS is always crap' to be the Word of God?

Get a grip, peeps, not all of us prefer 'outwitting' computer models to the real weather?:santa-emoji:

I think that was more aimed at those who claim the GFS can’t possibly be wrong and are keen to right off the entire winter based on its output.

This ECM run shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. It matches well the seasonal and 46 day models. Although I think this run develops things more quickly, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the pattern evolved more slowly in reality and we have to put up with more nonsense doom and gloom comments on here just because we’re not all going to be buried in no time. 

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No more will it snow in Kent type posts please. Use the Regional threads for these questions or they will disappear.

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JMA not quite on par with ECM but somewhat supportive

JN192-21.GIF?15-12

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5 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Would Kent do alright out of that 

A bit premature to be talking snow depths, let’s get the cold in first!

it could still change as it’s over a week away, feet on the ground people 😁

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People really shouldn’t be worrying whether the 240hr ECM chart shows snow for their specific location given we still don’t know where/if snow will fall this coming weekend..

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15 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

is that the mild easterly folk were moaning about earlier?

Well its a big relief bg, I was getting a little edgy earlier on, big surprise this sort of upgrade to turn up so early in the run, I mean this starts off at D7, brilliant.😅

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2 minutes ago, James Gold said:

A Bromleyite myself, do you see Thames Streamers setting up in that scenario, or something else giving us lots of snow?

Yes We could see quite a bit of snow showers off the North Sea and more  organized snow pushing up from the south .

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1 hour ago, snowray said:

Lovely chart at T192, no mild easterly, heavy snow showers moving in from the North Sea.

Big big upgrade this and getting close to the reliable now.:oldgrin:

ECE1-192.png

ECE0-192-1.png

Yes and with all the talk about snow on  Northern hills. This type of set up would favour The NE/E and SE/S as well as most central regions pretty confident The cold zonality talk will be banished and replaced by a bitter Easterly by months end should the ECM continue to and other models start showing charts as good as these 😉👌

Edited by Kentspur

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What I'm expecting, re EC Op pattern into FI, is a more toned down, modest version of events.

I have memories (vague memories admittedly) of the EC model often "bigging up" potential wintery nirvana charts in FI, especially when it's a relatively new route to cold it's projecting, and when it enters a reliable timeframe (ie T144 - T168), the model tends to relax the pattern somewhat into something a little less dramatic.

I think it's on the right road however, perhaps possibly a little quick with developments, hence the good looking FI charts.

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10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

For the newbies, easterlies have gone wrong with all 3 models and met on board😩😩 however on here coldies like looking a great charts nearly as much as seeing them verify and this is a great chart.😍😍👌👌

3D9D58DE-5A0C-4AB1-8BC1-410462BA07E3.png

This is sooooooo true!!! A cold chart is the MOD thread elixir. The peak of the rollercoaster, whether it verifies is of little concern when gauging the mood of the thread. 

But it’s all good fun 🙂 

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If this chart came off I wonder if that warm sector would get mixed out.

 

ECM0-240.GIF

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5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Yes and with all the talk about snow on  Northern hills. This type of set up would favour The NE/E and SE/S as well as most central regions pretty confident The cold zonality talk will be banished and replaced by a bitter Easterly by months end should the ECM and other models start showing charts as good as these 😉👌

Take it with a pinch of salt or grit, but you get the idea ;) (from near the end of the ECM run 12z)

image.thumb.png.8689efabd08a77e99d45062aa1dcc56c.png

 

Edited by stratty

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29 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

mary mother of JESUS!!!

TXT BOOK !!!!!

ECM1-192 (1).gif

THAT'S winter for MiD-EU, far best chart this winter so far...

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM snow depth....

75EE3B09-B548-45E5-96E3-C872FD5E12C5.jpeg

I can't imagine that would be anywhere close to what a good easterly can bring.  Take the PPN charts (especially at this range) with a large bucket of salt. Still good to see the signals there for something notable mind!

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20 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Southern Britain buried in snow or am I getting a head of myself.😬

If they were to verify, yes abbie, Midlands south should do best in this set up but obviously anywhere in the east of the country all the way down from Scotland would be good for snow showers and longer spells of snow too.:oldgrin:

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1 minute ago, AWD said:

What I'm expecting, re EC Op pattern into FI, is a more toned down, modest version of events.

I have memories (vague memories admittedly) of the EC model often "bigging up" potential wintery nirvana charts in FI, especially when it's a relatively new route to cold it's projecting, and when it enters a reliable timeframe (ie T144 - T168), the model tends to relax the pattern somewhat into something a little less dramatic.

I think it's on the right road however, perhaps possibly a little quick with developments, hence the good looking FI charts.

Agreed. Something between the ECM and GFS seems likely...hopefully (and I expect) more like ECM though 

E5AED230-1204-499B-BC13-B9B8EE236A6C.png

BC22160C-A97D-4D9B-ACCD-7EE8E408D8AB.gif

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